Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1219 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1050 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Remnants of MCS that developed over NE Oklahoma and NW Arkansas
lat night is pushing into the Delta region this morning. Meanwhile
a weak stationary front is draped across the area and deeper
moisture associated with a weak mid level trough is moving into
the region. Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue to
develop across the Mid-South this afternoon. SBCAPES range from
1000-1500 j/kg east of the MS River and there is 30 kts of 0-6km
shear north of I-40. A few strong storms are possible this
afternoon mainly along and east of the MS River with gusty winds
and small hail.

SJM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017/

Guidance continues to over-do rainfall coverage in the near
term...next weekend is looking interesting.

Showers and thunderstorms are moving into West Arkansas and will
eventually make into the Midsouth but currently conditions are dry
across the region. Temperatures are in the middle 60s. Skies are
mostly cloudy with dew points in the low to middle 60s so
temperatures are not likely to fall more than another degree or so
before sunrise. There may be a few showers around for the morning
commute...but the widespread rain and thunderstorms probably won't
arrive until around 11 am or so in East Arkansas...and noon to 1
PM along the Mississippi River. We should finally get some
rainfall across the Midsouth this afternoon after guidance has
been teasing us for a day or so. Rainfall totals this afternoon
and overnight of around one half of an inch are expected.
Conditions do not look supportive of severe thunderstorms.

We will remain under zonal flow through most of the work week. A
weak cold front will sink into Northeast Arkansas and North
Tennessee as a series of mid level disturbances shift across the
same region. A couple of rounds of rain and thunderstorms are
expected...one today and another Thursday...but neither look
overly organized. Temperatures will remain above normal through
Thursday...near to slightly below normal Friday.

Weak ridging will take place Friday in response to a deepening
trough over the Southern Plains. Guidance is in poor agreement
with timing, but most models bring a fairly potent system across
the Midsouth Saturday afternoon or Saturday night. Its still a
long way out so confidence is low...but it has been featured in
guidance for several runs now, so I will introduce strong to
severe wording to the HWO.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

Scattered showers and thunderstorms during the first half of the
TAF cycle with conditions varying mostly between VFR and
MVFR...though brief IFR VSBY in the heaviest downpours is
possible. During the second half of the period...IFR stratus with
patchy drizzle is favored. Can't rule out the potential for
LIFR...but confidence is low at this time. Winds will be either
light from the south or east as a weak cold front drops south.
Winds may gust up to 20 to 25 kts in storms.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
138 PM CDT MON APR 17 2017

TNZ053-090-171930-
Hardeman TN-Chester TN-
138 PM CDT MON APR 17 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Hardeman County in western Tennessee...
Southwestern Chester County in western Tennessee...

At 138 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Bolivar, moving
east at 20 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Hardeman and southwestern Chester Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3537 8861 3536 8864 3534 8867 3530 8866
      3531 8869 3526 8871 3525 8872 3525 8878
      3513 8879 3513 8904 3543 8903 3543 8857
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 275DEG 17KT 3534 8895

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
142 PM CDT MON APR 17 2017

TNZ003-004-020-021-171930-
Carroll TN-Weakley TN-Henry TN-Gibson TN-
142 PM CDT MON APR 17 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR...

Carroll County in western Tennessee...
Southeastern Weakley County in western Tennessee...
Western Henry County in western Tennessee...
Southeastern Gibson County in western Tennessee...

At 142 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Gleason, or 7 miles
northwest of McKenzie, moving east at 20 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Carroll...southeastern Weakley...western Henry and
southeastern Gibson Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3596 8822 3581 8887 3639 8870 3644 8821
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 275DEG 17KT 3619 8864

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>