Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1219 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1050 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Remnants of MCS that developed over NE Oklahoma and NW Arkansas
lat night is pushing into the Delta region this morning. Meanwhile
a weak stationary front is draped across the area and deeper
moisture associated with a weak mid level trough is moving into
the region. Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue to
develop across the Mid-South this afternoon. SBCAPES range from
1000-1500 j/kg east of the MS River and there is 30 kts of 0-6km
shear north of I-40. A few strong storms are possible this
afternoon mainly along and east of the MS River with gusty winds
and small hail.

SJM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017/

Guidance continues to over-do rainfall coverage in the near
term...next weekend is looking interesting.

Showers and thunderstorms are moving into West Arkansas and will
eventually make into the Midsouth but currently conditions are dry
across the region. Temperatures are in the middle 60s. Skies are
mostly cloudy with dew points in the low to middle 60s so
temperatures are not likely to fall more than another degree or so
before sunrise. There may be a few showers around for the morning
commute...but the widespread rain and thunderstorms probably won't
arrive until around 11 am or so in East Arkansas...and noon to 1
PM along the Mississippi River. We should finally get some
rainfall across the Midsouth this afternoon after guidance has
been teasing us for a day or so. Rainfall totals this afternoon
and overnight of around one half of an inch are expected.
Conditions do not look supportive of severe thunderstorms.

We will remain under zonal flow through most of the work week. A
weak cold front will sink into Northeast Arkansas and North
Tennessee as a series of mid level disturbances shift across the
same region. A couple of rounds of rain and thunderstorms are
expected...one today and another Thursday...but neither look
overly organized. Temperatures will remain above normal through
Thursday...near to slightly below normal Friday.

Weak ridging will take place Friday in response to a deepening
trough over the Southern Plains. Guidance is in poor agreement
with timing, but most models bring a fairly potent system across
the Midsouth Saturday afternoon or Saturday night. Its still a
long way out so confidence is low...but it has been featured in
guidance for several runs now, so I will introduce strong to
severe wording to the HWO.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

Scattered showers and thunderstorms during the first half of the
TAF cycle with conditions varying mostly between VFR and
MVFR...though brief IFR VSBY in the heaviest downpours is
possible. During the second half of the period...IFR stratus with
patchy drizzle is favored. Can't rule out the potential for
LIFR...but confidence is low at this time. Winds will be either
light from the south or east as a weak cold front drops south.
Winds may gust up to 20 to 25 kts in storms.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1253 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-182000-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
1253 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong storms with gusty winds, small hail and locally
heavy rainfall are possible along and east of the Mississippi
River this afternoon into early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday into Saturday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

SJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1137 AM CDT MON APR 17 2017

TNZ019-171700-
Dyer TN-
1137 AM CDT MON APR 17 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL NOON CDT
FOR...

Northern Dyer County in western Tennessee...

At 1137 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Bradleytown, or
near Dyersburg, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northern Dyer County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3620 8917 3596 8940 3609 8962 3619 8951
      3619 8949 3621 8948
TIME...MOT...LOC 1637Z 236DEG 20KT 3610 8944

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1159 AM CDT MON APR 17 2017

TNZ019-171745-
Dyer TN-
1159 AM CDT MON APR 17 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1245 PM CDT
FOR...

Eastern Dyer County in western Tennessee...

At 1159 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Dyersburg, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in eastern Dyer County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3621 8919 3620 8916 3603 8916 3602 8920
      3601 8921 3600 8919 3597 8920 3592 8925
      3611 8951 3621 8939
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 233DEG 7KT 3609 8937

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1233 PM CDT MON APR 17 2017

MSZ001-007-008-010>012-171815-
Tunica MS-Coahoma MS-DeSoto MS-Panola MS-Tate MS-Quitman MS-
1233 PM CDT MON APR 17 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Tunica County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southeastern Coahoma County in northwestern Mississippi...
DeSoto County in northwestern Mississippi...
Western Panola County in northwestern Mississippi...
Tate County in northwestern Mississippi...
Quitman County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 1233 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Arkabutla, or 8
miles southwest of Hernando, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Tunica...southeastern Coahoma...DeSoto...
western Panola...Tate and Quitman Counties should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3408 9062 3499 9012 3499 8972 3416 9011
      3416 9014 3408 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 233DEG 18KT 3473 9009