Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
521 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated to include the 12z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 241 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Skies are cloudy across the forecast area early this morning with
temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. A cold front
currently extends from northeast Illinois through northwest
Arkansas and into central Texas. Some areas of thunderstorms have
developed ahead of the front with some thunderstorms currently
over north central into western Arkansas. Some of these
thunderstorms have been severe and a new Tornado Watch which
should cover most of the forecast area should be issued before 4
AM. As the cold front moves east today thunderstorms will move
through the forecast area. Damaging winds and large hail will be
the main threats but tornadoes are also possible. Most of the
thunderstorms should be out of the forecast area by this
afternoon. Temperatures will remain on the warm side today with
highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

The cold front will be east of the region tonight with high
pressure moving into the central plains. Cooler and drier air will
move into region with lows Thursday morning in the mid to upper
30s. Thursday will be a sunny day as the surface high settles into
Oklahoma. Temperatures will be close to normal levels with highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The surface high will be close to
the forecast area Thursday night which will allow temperatures to
drop a little lower than tonight. Lows Friday morning will be in
the low to mid 30s. Friday will be the coolest day of the forecast
period as the high remains just west of the area. Highs on Friday
will be in the low to mid 50s.

By Friday night, the surface high will be east of the region which
will allow winds to shift to the south. This will bring milder air
back into the region so temperatures will not be as chilly
Saturday morning. The warming trend will continue for much of the
weekend as temperatures return to above normal levels. Moisture
will start to return to southern sections of the forecast area by
Sunday with some isolated showers possible.

The chance of rain will increase some on Sunday night as another
cold front will move into the plains. This cold front will move
quickly into Arkansas by Monday morning and through the forecast
area Monday night. This will mean showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop ahead of the front and move through the region
both Monday and Monday night. The cold front should be just south
of the forecast area on Tuesday with some additional thunderstorms
possible. Temperatures should remain above normal for Monday and
Tuesday.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
A line of severe thunderstorms will continue to move quickly east
across the CWA this morning. Gusty winds will accompany this line
of storms, although there has been a downward trend in its
intensity over the past hour or so. Still, gusts exceeding 50 kts
are possible for a brief period. Low ceilings and visibility will
also accompany these storms. These aviation hazards are handled in
TEMPO groups. West winds of 15-25 kts will continue through this
afternoon in the wake of the cold front, gradually diminishing
around 00z. Occasional MVFR ceilings are expected through around
midday, with VFR conditions thereafter.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
847 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-021700-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
847 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms today across
portions of west Tennessee near the Tennessee River, and northeast
Mississippi. A slight risk for severe thunderstorms exists across
the remainder of north Mississippi. The primary severe weather
threats will include damaging winds, large hail, and a few
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

North Mississippi and west Tennessee will likely experience
elevated levels of wild fire danger Thursday and Friday, due to
low relative humidity levels.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed today across the slight and
enhanced risk areas. Please relay damage or severe weather reports
to NWS Memphis.

JLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
819 AM CST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE ARMOREL           35.95N 89.79W
03/01/2017                   MISSISSIPPI        AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIDESPREAD DAMAGE TO FENCES AND OUTBUILDINGS.

&&

JOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
823 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

ARZ036-TNZ088-011445-
Crittenden AR-Shelby TN-
823 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 845 AM CST
FOR...

Central Crittenden County in eastern Arkansas...
Southwestern Shelby County in western Tennessee...

At 822 AM CST...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger was located near Edmondson, or near West Memphis, moving east
at 65 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in central Crittenden and southwestern Shelby Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3524 8995 3500 8986 3499 8999 3499 9031
      3497 9030 3497 9037 3517 9041
TIME...MOT...LOC 1422Z 257DEG 56KT 3508 9026

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
847 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

MSZ003-TNZ089-090-011500-
Benton MS-Hardeman TN-Fayette TN-
847 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 900 AM CST
FOR...

Northwestern Benton County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southwestern Hardeman County in western Tennessee...
Southeastern Fayette County in western Tennessee...

At 847 AM CST...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger was located near Lagrange, or 21 miles southwest of Bolivar,
moving east at 55 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northwestern Benton...southwestern Hardeman and
southeastern Fayette Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3495 8935 3499 8935 3499 8940 3512 8944
      3519 8907 3500 8899
TIME...MOT...LOC 1447Z 258DEG 47KT 3506 8929

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
850 AM CST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 AM     HAIL             2 SW BARTLETT           35.19N 89.86W
03/01/2017  E0.88 INCH       SHELBY             TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT ELMORE ROAD AND KENWOOD LN IN
            BARTLETT.

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
856 AM CST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HALLS                   35.87N 89.40W
03/01/2017                   LAUDERDALE         TN   PUBLIC

            CARPORT LIFTED OFF GROUND ONTO HOME AND BACKYARD
            PLAYGROUND EQUIPMENT BLOWN OVER.

&&

JOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
921 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

TNZ053>055-091-092-011545-
Henderson TN-Chester TN-Decatur TN-McNairy TN-Hardin TN-
921 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 945 AM CST
FOR...

Southeastern Henderson County in western Tennessee...
East central Chester County in western Tennessee...
Southern Decatur County in western Tennessee...
Northeastern McNairy County in western Tennessee...
Northern Hardin County in western Tennessee...

At 921 AM CST...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near Morris Chapel, or 8 miles north of Savannah, moving
east at 65 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Henderson...east central Chester...southern
Decatur...northeastern McNairy and northern Hardin Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3539 8798 3539 8803 3537 8802 3537 8801
      3535 8801 3533 8802 3530 8802 3530 8798
      3528 8798 3526 8845 3546 8841 3551 8798
      3548 8799 3547 8802 3545 8804 3542 8803
      3541 8797
TIME...MOT...LOC 1521Z 261DEG 57KT 3534 8830