Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Memphis, TN

641 
WWUS54 KMEG 010930
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
330 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

ARC075-121-010945-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-170301T0945Z/
Randolph AR-Lawrence AR-
330 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM CST
FOR RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

At 330 AM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Gatewood to near College City to 6 miles north of
Grubbs, moving east at 70 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Pocahontas, Walnut Ridge, Hoxie, Black Rock, Lake Charles State Park,
Imboden, Ravenden, Reyno, College City, Portia, Maynard, Biggers,
Lynn, O'kean, Alicia, Ravenden Springs, Minturn, Annieville, Dalton
and Attica.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not
immediately likely, if one is spotted act quickly and move to a place
of safety inside a sturdy structure, such as a storm shelter or small
interior room.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 800 AM CST for eastern
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3650 9079 3643 9078 3641 9075 3635 9075
      3629 9076 3628 9081 3615 9081 3615 9079
      3599 9086 3598 9084 3588 9087 3589 9125
      3612 9124 3624 9126 3633 9126 3633 9128
      3642 9131 3642 9135 3647 9136 3650 9141
TIME...MOT...LOC 0930Z 283DEG 61KT 3657 9115 3616 9098 3574 9105 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

881 
WWUS54 KMEG 010946 RRA
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
346 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

ARC075-121-010956-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-170301T0945Z/
Randolph AR-Lawrence AR-
346 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES
HAS EXPIRED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been allowed to
expire.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 800 AM CST for eastern
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3650 9079 3643 9078 3641 9075 3635 9075
      3629 9076 3628 9081 3615 9081 3615 9079
      3599 9086 3598 9084 3588 9087 3589 9125
      3612 9124 3624 9126 3633 9126 3633 9128
      3642 9131 3642 9135 3647 9136 3650 9141
TIME...MOT...LOC 0946Z 252DEG 61KT 3665 9086 3624 9069 3582 9076 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
241 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Skies are cloudy across the forecast area early this morning with
temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. A cold front
currently extends from northeast Illinois through northwest
Arkansas and into central Texas. Some areas of thunderstorms have
developed ahead of the front with some thunderstorms currently
over north central into western Arkansas. Some of these
thunderstorms have been severe and a new Tornado Watch which
should cover most of the forecast area should be issued before 4
AM. As the cold front moves east today thunderstorms will move
through the forecast area. Damaging winds and large hail will be
the main threats but tornadoes are also possible. Most of the
thunderstorms should be out of the forecast area by this
afternoon. Temperatures will remain on the warm side today with
highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

The cold front will be east of the region tonight with high
pressure moving into the central plains. Cooler and drier air will
move into region with lows Thursday morning in the mid to upper
30s. Thursday will be a sunny day as the surface high settles into
Oklahoma. Temperatures will be close to normal levels with highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The surface high will be close to
the forecast area Thursday night which will allow temperatures to
drop a little lower than tonight. Lows Friday morning will be in
the low to mid 30s. Friday will be the coolest day of the forecast
period as the high remains just west of the area. Highs on Friday
will be in the low to mid 50s.

By Friday night, the surface high will be east of the region which
will allow winds to shift to the south. This will bring milder air
back into the region so temperatures will not be as chilly
Saturday morning. The warming trend will continue for much of the
weekend as temperatures return to above normal levels. Moisture
will start to return to southern sections of the forecast area by
Sunday with some isolated showers possible.

The chance of rain will increase some on Sunday night as another
cold front will move into the plains. This cold front will move
quickly into Arkansas by Monday morning and through the forecast
area Monday night. This will mean showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop ahead of the front and move through the region
both Monday and Monday night. The cold front should be just south
of the forecast area on Tuesday with some additional thunderstorms
possible. Temperatures should remain above normal for Monday and
Tuesday.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION... 06z TAFs

VFR weather outside of convection...with model guidance indicating
a slower passage of the approaching cold front. Adjusted timing
accordingly. Gusty south to southwest winds will continue
overnight...then veering west and northwest after passage. Winds
will diminish significantly by sunset. Low level wind shear
potential through the first 6-8 hours of the period. Worst cigs
expected at TUP. Expect stronger wind gusts in convection.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1156 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-020800-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
1156 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms a few hours before
sunrise across areas west of the Mississippi River. The primary
threats will be damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms across all of
west Tennessee, including Memphis and Jackson, and for far
northern Mississippi, including Olive Branch and Corinth, on
Wednesday. A slight risk for severe thunderstorms will exist for
the remainder of north Mississippi, including Oxford and Tupelo on
Wednesday.

The primary severe weather risks will include damaging winds,
large hail, and a few tornadoes. The severe weather threat should
end by mid afternoon Wednesday.

Following a strong cold frontal passage Wednesday afternoon and
evening, breezy conditions and low humidity will spread through
the Midsouth. North Mississippi and west Tennessee will likely
experience elevated levels of wild fire danger Thursday and
Friday, due to low relative humidity levels.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed for the remainder of
tonight through mid afternoon Wednesday.

JLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1041 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 PM     TORNADO          4 NNE LATHAM            36.48N 88.69W
02/28/2017                   WEAKLEY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POSSIBLE TORNADO IN THE AUSTIN SPRINGS AREA NEAR THE
            KENTUCKY STATE LINE.

&&

JAB