Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
552 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017/

At 4AM, Two distinct areas of thunderstorms on radar at this
hour. One multi-cluster of storms is moving through West
Tennessee, that has mostly produced sub-severe hail and winds.
Another line of storms is moving into eastern Arkansas and is
likely producing severe hail with a storm in Randolph County. The
aforementioned second line of storms will be maintained by a
shortwave currently digging across northern Texas and the Oklahoma
border. Height falls are not overly impressive, but lapse rates
aloft are in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. As a result, a continued
hail threat will exist through the morning hours. If any storms
can become rooted in the boundary layer, a greater hail and wind
potential will exist. HRRR hi-res model indicates that the line of
storms will push east of Tennessee River by 18Z or noon LT, and
the risk for severe storms will come to an end.

Record breaking temperatures are expected this afternoon as
readings to rise into the mid to upper 70s before a cold front
arrives around sundown. All main models continue to indicate that
the frontal boundary will slow down and become stalled near a line
from Clarksdale northeast to Camden Tennessee. A weak surface low
will then ride along the front and traverse from the ArkLaTex to
Central Tennessee during the day on Wednesday. As a result, a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
mainly over West Tennessee and North Mississippi. The front is
expected to push south and east of the area by Thursday morning.

Behind the frontal, a decent cooldown is expected Thursday as
temperatures remain in the low to mid 40s. However, temperatures
will bounce back quickly on Friday, as high pressure pushes east
and winds turn around to the south. Moisture recovery will occur
during the overnight hours on Saturday and a few warm air
advection showers will be possible during the day. Another cold
front is progged to move into the Mid-South around sundown on
Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front as it
moves through. Behind the front, another cool down is expected
with temperatures returning to around and slightly above normal.
Beyond that, models diverge on the position of a surface low
ejecting out of the Gulf. Went ahead and carried low end POPs in
the south.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...12z TAFs

Potent shortwave will move across the Mid South today. Strong low
level winds from the southwest above surface layer will continue
to pose a wind shear threat through mid/late morning. In
addition...convection will continue to intensify through the
morning hours as mid level height falls overspread the region
along with increasing mid level lapse rates. Strong to severe
storms will be possible this morning with potential damaging winds
and large hail. The greatest threat early this morning will be
near KJBR then through mid/late morning at KMEM and KMKL. The
greater severe threat at KTUP will be late morning into this
afternoon. Have added tempos for the greatest storm potential at
all locations. Storms will gradually diminish from west to east
from late morning through the afternoon hours. MVFR to IFR
cigs/vsbys will be possible during storm activity today.

Surface winds will remain strong and gusty from the south today
before diminishing by evening. A front will stall in the vicinity
of KJBR and KMKL where winds may temporarily become light
northeasterly late tonight. Elsewhere...light and variable winds
are expected.

Fog will likely develop late tonight at the terminals and could
become dense...especially at KTUP.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
852 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-081700-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
852 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms south and east of
a Union City, Tennessee to Osceola, Mississippi to Forrest City,
Arkansas line. The greatest potential for severe storms will be
east of the Mississippi river through the mid afternoon hours.
The highest potential for severe storms will be across northeast
Mississippi this afternoon when instability is maximized.

There will be a threat for damaging winds and large hail across
the slight risk area. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible
later this morning into the afternoon...especially across
northeast Mississippi.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few strong storms are possible across north Mississippi
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed today across the entire Mid
South. Please pass along any storm damage or large hail to the
National Weather Service in Memphis.

SJM

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