Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Memphis, TN

196 
WWUS54 KMEG 071318
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
718 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

ARC035-071327-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170207T1330Z/
Crittenden AR-
718 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 AM CST for
eastern Arkansas...and west Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3539 8996 3538 8965 3509 8964 3512 9009
      3514 9006 3515 9007 3516 9009
TIME...MOT...LOC 1317Z 264DEG 44KT 3538 8985 3533 8987 3515 9008 

$$

TNC157-071330-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170207T1330Z/
Shelby TN-
718 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 AM CST
FOR NORTHERN SHELBY COUNTY...

At 717 AM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Munford to Millington to Downtown Memphis, moving
east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Bartlett, Collierville, Germantown, Millington, Cordova, Memphis,
Lakeland, Arlington, Ellendale, Downtown Memphis, Eads, Frayser,
Midtown Memphis, Lenow, Barretville, Griffin Corner, Woodstock,
Redwood, Rosemark and Sloanville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3539 8996 3538 8965 3509 8964 3512 9009
      3514 9006 3515 9007 3516 9009
TIME...MOT...LOC 1317Z 264DEG 44KT 3538 8985 3533 8987 3515 9008 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

754 
WWUS54 KMEG 071331
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
731 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

TNC157-071340-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170207T1330Z/
Shelby TN-
731 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 AM CST for
eastern Arkansas...and west Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3539 8996 3538 8965 3509 8964 3512 9009
      3514 9006 3515 9007 3516 9009
TIME...MOT...LOC 1330Z 269DEG 52KT 3538 8964 3533 8966 3515 8987 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
552 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017/

At 4AM, Two distinct areas of thunderstorms on radar at this
hour. One multi-cluster of storms is moving through West
Tennessee, that has mostly produced sub-severe hail and winds.
Another line of storms is moving into eastern Arkansas and is
likely producing severe hail with a storm in Randolph County. The
aforementioned second line of storms will be maintained by a
shortwave currently digging across northern Texas and the Oklahoma
border. Height falls are not overly impressive, but lapse rates
aloft are in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. As a result, a continued
hail threat will exist through the morning hours. If any storms
can become rooted in the boundary layer, a greater hail and wind
potential will exist. HRRR hi-res model indicates that the line of
storms will push east of Tennessee River by 18Z or noon LT, and
the risk for severe storms will come to an end.

Record breaking temperatures are expected this afternoon as
readings to rise into the mid to upper 70s before a cold front
arrives around sundown. All main models continue to indicate that
the frontal boundary will slow down and become stalled near a line
from Clarksdale northeast to Camden Tennessee. A weak surface low
will then ride along the front and traverse from the ArkLaTex to
Central Tennessee during the day on Wednesday. As a result, a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
mainly over West Tennessee and North Mississippi. The front is
expected to push south and east of the area by Thursday morning.

Behind the frontal, a decent cooldown is expected Thursday as
temperatures remain in the low to mid 40s. However, temperatures
will bounce back quickly on Friday, as high pressure pushes east
and winds turn around to the south. Moisture recovery will occur
during the overnight hours on Saturday and a few warm air
advection showers will be possible during the day. Another cold
front is progged to move into the Mid-South around sundown on
Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front as it
moves through. Behind the front, another cool down is expected
with temperatures returning to around and slightly above normal.
Beyond that, models diverge on the position of a surface low
ejecting out of the Gulf. Went ahead and carried low end POPs in
the south.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...12z TAFs

Potent shortwave will move across the Mid South today. Strong low
level winds from the southwest above surface layer will continue
to pose a wind shear threat through mid/late morning. In
addition...convection will continue to intensify through the
morning hours as mid level height falls overspread the region
along with increasing mid level lapse rates. Strong to severe
storms will be possible this morning with potential damaging winds
and large hail. The greatest threat early this morning will be
near KJBR then through mid/late morning at KMEM and KMKL. The
greater severe threat at KTUP will be late morning into this
afternoon. Have added tempos for the greatest storm potential at
all locations. Storms will gradually diminish from west to east
from late morning through the afternoon hours. MVFR to IFR
cigs/vsbys will be possible during storm activity today.

Surface winds will remain strong and gusty from the south today
before diminishing by evening. A front will stall in the vicinity
of KJBR and KMKL where winds may temporarily become light
northeasterly late tonight. Elsewhere...light and variable winds
are expected.

Fog will likely develop late tonight at the terminals and could
become dense...especially at KTUP.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
602 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-081415-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
602 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across the Mid
South today. The greatest potential for severe storms this
morning will be along and west of the Mississippi
River...spreading east of the river from mid morning through the
afternoon hours. The highest potential for severe storms will be
across northeast Mississippi this afternoon when instability is
maximized.

There will be a threat for damaging winds and large hail across
much of the region. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible later
this morning into the afternoon...especially across northeast
Mississippi.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed today across the entire Mid
South. Please pass along any storm damage or large hail to the
National Weather Service in Memphis.

JLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
310 AM CST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     HAIL             3 SE GIBSON             35.84N 88.81W
02/07/2017  E0.75 INCH       GIBSON             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN SOUTHERN GIBSON COUNTY.

&&

AJC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
311 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

TNZ053-054-071000-
Henderson TN-Chester TN-
311 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 400 AM CST
FOR...

Southern Henderson County in western Tennessee...
Chester County in western Tennessee...

At 310 AM CST...strong thunderstorms producing pea to nickle size
hail and winds at least 40 mph was located over Henderson.

People in southern Henderson and Chester Counties should monitor this
storm closely.

LAT...LON 3555 8823 3553 8824 3542 8825 3542 8836
      3540 8836 3538 8844 3538 8846 3537 8849
      3539 8851 3538 8857 3537 8856 3538 8858
      3536 8864 3533 8867 3533 8869 3545 8874
      3573 8819
TIME...MOT...LOC 0910Z 249DEG 33KT 3545 8860

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
314 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

TNZ003-004-020>022-050-051-071015-
Carroll TN-Weakley TN-Benton TN-Crockett TN-Henry TN-Gibson TN-
Haywood TN-
314 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 415 AM CST
FOR...

Carroll County in western Tennessee...
Southeastern Weakley County in western Tennessee...
Northwestern Benton County in western Tennessee...
Crockett County in western Tennessee...
Henry County in western Tennessee...
Gibson County in western Tennessee...
Northeastern Haywood County in western Tennessee...

At 314 AM CST...strong thunderstorms producing pea to nickle size
hail and winds at least 40 mph will impact the advisory area.

People in Carroll...southeastern Weakley...northwestern Benton...
Crockett...Henry...Gibson and northeastern Haywood Counties should
monitor these storms closely.

LAT...LON 3584 8821 3582 8831 3583 8856 3579 8860
      3580 8891 3578 8889 3567 8902 3569 8907
      3565 8907 3562 8921 3583 8936 3649 8833
      3649 8806
TIME...MOT...LOC 0914Z 249DEG 33KT 3589 8866

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
327 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

TNZ002>004-020-071015-
Weakley TN-Henry TN-Obion TN-Gibson TN-
327 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 415 AM CST
FOR...

Weakley County in western Tennessee...
Northwestern Henry County in western Tennessee...
Southeastern Obion County in western Tennessee...
Northwestern Gibson County in western Tennessee...

At 326 AM CST...a line of strong thunderstorms producing pea to dime
size hail and winds up to 50 mph was located near Rutherford, or 12
miles south of Martin.

People in Weakley...northwestern Henry...southeastern Obion and
northwestern Gibson Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3649 8830 3599 8910 3618 8916 3650 8871
TIME...MOT...LOC 0926Z 229DEG 56KT 3617 8894

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
407 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

TNZ021-022-071045-
Carroll TN-Benton TN-
407 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 445 AM CST
FOR...

Eastern Carroll County in western Tennessee...
Benton County in western Tennessee...

At 406 AM CST...Strong thunderstorms producing pea to nickel size
hail and winds at least 40 mph will impact the advisory area.

People in eastern Carroll and Benton Counties should monitor this
storm closely.

LAT...LON 3613 8792 3603 8800 3600 8800 3598 8802
      3596 8802 3594 8800 3594 8793 3589 8794
      3582 8833 3582 8846 3587 8854 3614 8821
      3612 8821 3614 8819 3617 8817 3634 8797
      3627 8794 3622 8795 3615 8792
TIME...MOT...LOC 1006Z 230DEG 47KT 3589 8841

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
415 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

ARZ018-026-MOZ113-071100-
Greene AR-Craighead AR-Dunklin MO-
415 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 500 AM CST
FOR...

Southeastern Greene County in eastern Arkansas...
Eastern Craighead County in eastern Arkansas...
Southwestern Dunklin County in southeastern Missouri...

At 415 AM CST...a strong thunderstorm producing pea to dime size
hail and winds at least 40 mph was located near Jonesboro.

People in southeastern Greene...eastern Craighead and southwestern
Dunklin Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3620 9023 3600 9028 3600 9029 3593 9029
      3570 9062 3571 9068 3582 9079
TIME...MOT...LOC 1015Z 230DEG 47KT 3576 9071