Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1013 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.UPDATE...

No forecast updates are planned at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A slow moving cold front has sagged into northern portions of the
Mid South and has been the focus for nearly stationary showers and
thunderstorms. These storms have formed in the area of frontal
convergence and within a very moist, tropical airmass. This has
supported very heavy rainfall in these areas with localized
flooding.

The boundary should continue to move southward through the day
which should limit the overall flash flood threat to the short-
term period. For this reason, plan to hold off on any flash flood
watch at this time. Flash flood potential will be monitored
closely through the day.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across areas along
and south of the front through the day. As for temperatures, they
will be modulated by convective patterns which are difficult to
discern in advance. The current forecast handles this well and no
updates are planned at this time.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017/

The last rainy day for a while across the Midsouth, followed by a
transition to dry weather Tuesday that will last into the weekend.

Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper low over
east TX, with a downstream plume of tropical moisture over the
lower MS River valley, the Ohio River valley and southern
Appalachia. The upper low center will drop into the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico by early evening, with a trof axis extending
northeast into central MS and and TN River valley. This trof axis
will roughly correlate with the northward extent of mentionable
rain chances.

Severe thunderstorm chances today will remain marginal at best,
given limited instability. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
will be possible where updrafts can build high enough for thunder.

Tuesday may see lingering showers and perhaps a thunderstorm over
north MS into the early afternoon. More robust deep convection
will be far removed from the Midsouth- over the central and
eastern Gulf coast, east of the upper low center. Drier and
cooler air will spread into all the Midsouth Tuesday night,
following a cold frontal passage under northerly flow aloft.

An upper level ridge over the desert southwest during the midweek
periods will deamplify as it lifts to the MS River valley by
Saturday. Daytime temps over the Midsouth will warm during the
latter half of the week, prevailing as much as 5 degrees above
normal this weekend, into the early part of next week. Rain
chances will remain limited to diurnal storms on Monday, as higher
dewpoints return, with strengthening low level onshore flow.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF Set

Showers will continue to spread into the Mid-South this morning.
However, conditions remain VFR thus far except at KJBR. Although,
expect KJBR to also improve to VFR by 16Z. Overall, expect VFR
conditions to continue today. Can't totally rule out conditions
temporarily being lowered in a heavier SHRA or TSRA. After sunset,
models are suggesting CIGS may lower to MVFR at KMEM and KTUP
while fog may begin to develop at KMKL and KJBR after 06Z reducing
VSBYS to IFR/MVFR. Light SW winds will become light and variable
by 00Z.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
310 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-061015-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
310 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong thunderstorms are possible today, producing locally
heavy rainfall and strong winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A few strong thunderstorms are possible over north Mississippi
through mid-afternoon Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall and strong
winds may occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1127 AM CDT MON JUN 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ESE PARAGOULD         36.05N 90.49W
06/05/2017                   GREENE             AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ROADS FLOODED NEAR ALLEN ENGINEERING IN PARAGOULD.

&&

WLC