Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Memphis, TN

280 
WGUS74 KMEG 051721
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1221 PM CDT MON JUN 5 2017

ARC075-051731-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-170605T1730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lawrence AR-
1221 PM CDT MON JUN 5 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR LAWRENCE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 1230 PM
CDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3608 9135 3615 9110 3615 9108 3613 9109
      3613 9108 3612 9108 3612 9106 3615 9106
      3615 9081 3589 9106 3589 9136

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
624 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017/

The last rainy day for a while across the Midsouth, followed by a
transition to dry weather Tuesday that will last into the weekend.

Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper low over
east TX, with a downstream plume of tropical moisture over the
lower MS River valley, the Ohio River valley and southern
Appalachia. The upper low center will drop into the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico by early evening, with a trof axis extending
northeast into central MS and and TN River valley. This trof axis
will roughly correlate with the northward extent of mentionable
rain chances.

Severe thunderstorm chances today will remain marginal at best,
given limited instability. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
will be possible where updrafts can build high enough for thunder.

Tuesday may see lingering showers and perhaps a thunderstorm over
north MS into the early afternoon. More robust deep convection
will be far removed from the Midsouth- over the central and
eastern Gulf coast, east of the upper low center. Drier and
cooler air will spread into all the Midsouth Tuesday night,
following a cold frontal passage under northerly flow aloft.

An upper level ridge over the desert southwest during the midweek
periods will deamplify as it lifts to the MS River valley by
Saturday. Daytime temps over the Midsouth will warm during the
latter half of the week, prevailing as much as 5 degrees above
normal this weekend, into the early part of next week. Rain
chances will remain limited to diurnal storms on Monday, as higher
dewpoints return, with strengthening low level onshore flow.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF Set

Showers will continue to spread into the Mid-South this morning.
However, conditions remain VFR thus far except at KJBR. Although,
expect KJBR to also improve to VFR by 16Z. Overall, expect VFR
conditions to continue today. Can't totally rule out conditions
temporarily being lowered in a heavier SHRA or TSRA. After sunset,
models are suggesting CIGS may lower to MVFR at KMEM and KTUP
while fog may begin to develop at KMKL and KJBR after 06Z reducing
VSBYS to IFR/MVFR. Light SW winds will become light and variable
by 00Z.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
310 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-061015-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
310 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong thunderstorms are possible today, producing locally
heavy rainfall and strong winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A few strong thunderstorms are possible over north Mississippi
through mid-afternoon Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall and strong
winds may occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PWB