Flash Flood Warning 81, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
250 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Bands from Harvey are impacting much of the Mid-South at this time
and will continue to do so tonight into Friday. Threat for spin
up tornadoes seems to have shifted more east in the last hour.
Northeast Mississippi and areas of West Tennessee near the
Tennessee River will continue to see the threat into the early
evening hours as the center of Harvey tracks northeastward through
Northwest Mississippi. May be able to trim the Tornado Watch but
will wait another hour to make sure.

Heavy bands of rain will produce rainfall rates up to 2-2.5 inches
an hour. By the time it starts winding down, expect a wide swath
of 4-8 inches across a good portion of the Mid-South with isolated
higher amounts.

After Harvey moves out late Friday, surface high pressure will
build into the Mid-South. Although the region, will remain in a
broad upper trof. Some models show some shower development across
portions of East Arkansas Friday Night into Saturday morning due
to a shortwave, but for now have left the forecast dry. Expect
pleasant conditions for the weekend with highs in the mid 70s to
mid 80s.

Another cold front will move into the Mid-South Tuesday into
Wednesday and will bring another chance for showers and
thunderstorms to the Mid-South. The latest ECMWF keeps chances for
showers and thunderstorms into Thursday as a SFC low develops
along the front. The GFS however clears the front. For now, will
carry POPS across portions of the eastern areas of the Mid-South.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

The remnants of Harvey are expected to gradually track NE across
North Mississippi this afternoon into tonight, exiting into Middle
early Friday. Expect widespread MVFR conds with occasional IFR
conditions in the heavier SHRAS and TSRAS. TSRA threat will
diminish this evening. Gusty winds at KJBR, KMEM, KMKL anticipated
to be NE/N through much of the period. KTUP will gradually veer
from SE through west to NW by later tonight.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Phillips-Poinsett-
     Randolph-St. Francis.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Mississippi-
     Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for Mississippi.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for Dunklin.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Coahoma-DeSoto-Lafayette-Marshall-Panola-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for Calhoun-Coahoma-DeSoto-
     Lafayette-Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica-
     Yalobusha.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Chickasaw-Itawamba-Lee MS-Monroe-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Tippah-
     Tishomingo-Union.

TN...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for Fayette-Hardeman-
     Shelby.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for Fayette-Lauderdale-
     Shelby-Tipton.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Gibson-Hardin-Haywood-
     Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-McNairy-Obion-
     Tipton-Weakley.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Gibson-Hardeman-Hardin-
     Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Madison-McNairy-Obion-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
926 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-011630-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
926 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Harvey will overspread
the Midsouth today and tonight. A flash flood watch has been
issued for much of the Mid-South.

There is slight and marginal risk for severe storms to the east of
the Mississippi River today and tonight. Damaging winds and a few
rain-embedded and fast-moving tornadoes are the main threats.

A wind advisory is in effect for today and tonight in association
with Harvey.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Harvey may
persist across portions of west Tennessee on Friday. A flash flood
watch is in effect.

A wind advisory is in affect across the eastern counties Friday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be likely be needed today and tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1212 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1211 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KENNETT                 36.24N 90.05W
08/31/2017                   DUNKLIN            MO   PUBLIC

            A DOMINOS RESTAURANT HAD TO BE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

ARS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
141 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0139 PM     TORNADO          2 W MARIETTA            34.50N 88.51W
08/31/2017                   PRENTISS           MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DEBRIS REPORTED AND TREES DAMAGED AT HIGHWAY 366 AND C.R.
            5334

&&

WOODALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
205 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     TORNADO          1 N TUPELO              34.28N 88.73W
08/31/2017                   LEE                MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
216 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HARRISBURG              35.56N 90.72W
08/31/2017                   POINSETT           AR   PUBLIC

            GRIFFIN STREET FLOODED.

&&

SJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
219 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOONEVILLE              34.66N 88.57W
08/31/2017                   PRENTISS           MS   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON MEADOW CREEK ROAD.

&&

SJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
227 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BLYTHEVILLE             35.93N 89.92W
08/31/2017                   MISSISSIPPI        AR   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED IN BLYTHEVILLE.

&&

SJM