Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Memphis, TN

947 
WGUS54 KMEG 031136
FFWMEG
ARC021-055-031545-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-170703T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
636 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

The National Weather Service in Memphis has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northeastern Greene County in eastern Arkansas...
  Eastern Clay County in eastern Arkansas...

* Until 1045 AM CDT

* At 636 AM CDT...Doppler Radar estimates 4 to 5 inches of rain has 
  occurred over the past 3 hours. Showers and thunderstorms will 
  produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain over the next 3 hours.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Piggott, Rector, Marmaduke, Chalk Bluff Natural Area, St. Francis,
  Pollard, Greenway, Saint Francis, Crockett, Nimmons, Bell City,
  Pratt, Hargrave Corner, Heubner, Carryville, Holly Island, Fritz,
  Rhyne and Leonard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 9016 3648 9014 3645 9013 3642 9014
      3640 9011 3640 9008 3638 9006 3633 9008
      3630 9006 3627 9009 3626 9012 3623 9013
      3620 9020 3617 9023 3620 9049 3650 9023
      3650 9016

$$

924 
WGUS74 KMEG 031525
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1025 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

ARC021-055-031535-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-170703T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Greene AR-Clay AR-
1025 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN GREENE AND EASTERN CLAY
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to
heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3648 9016 3648 9014 3645 9013 3642 9014
      3640 9011 3640 9008 3638 9006 3633 9008
      3630 9006 3627 9009 3626 9012 3623 9013
      3620 9020 3617 9023 3620 9049 3650 9023
      3650 9016

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
321 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.DISCUSSION...

A Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) embedded within ongoing
convection over Arkansas will move east across the Mid South
today. This will result in numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms across much of the forecast area today. This feature
will be slow to move east with convection persisting into the
night across areas mainly east of the Mississippi River. Pockets
of localized heating and a moist atmosphere will support areas of
moderate instability with SBCAPES greater than 1500 j/kg. In
addition, the MCV will generate increased low level shear as 850
mb winds increase above 30 kts. This combination of shear and
local enhancement of instability should support the potential for
a few strong storms. Localized damaging winds and heavy
rainfall/flash flooding will be the primary concerns, although an
isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out as 0-1 km SRH is
enhanced ahead of the mesolow. Slow moving storms may also result
in several inches of rainfall and plan to issue a flash flood
watch for roughly the western two-thirds of the region. After
coordination with WPC, much of the region will be placed within a
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall.

The MCV will gradually shift east of the region by early Tuesday
morning as shortwave ridging temporarily builds over the region
between systems. This should result in a downswing in convective
chances for Tuesday and Tuesday night across much of the region.

Another slow moving upper level low will cut off across the
Central Plains early this week and move slowly east across the
region through Thursday. This will bring another round of
potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms to the region,
especially Wednesday night into Thursday. The greatest potential
should remain across northern areas in closest proximity to the
upper low/potential MCV.

Another northern stream shortwave diving south from the Great
Lakes over the weekend will help to carve out a eastern U.S.
longwave trough. A surface cold front should advance across the
forecast area this weekend with additional storm chances.

High pressure should finally build from the north by early next
week with lower humidities and a overall drier airmass. This
should bring an end to the nearly daily storm chances.
Temperatures through the forecast period will be modulated by
storm activity, but overall remain near or slightly below normal
through the period.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

Watching a complex across eastern OK/western AR that will move
across the area on Sunday. Several models move a meso surface low
just north of I-40 during the day on Sunday. Added tempos for
TSRAs to KMEM, KMKL and KJBR during Sunday morning with ocnl MVFR
cigs. KJBR will hold on the lower cigs longer due to the track of
the surface low. Most of the SHRA and TSRA activity should remain
north of KTUP so left a VCTS there for now. Not certain on
convective evolution through the afternoon so kept VCTS going at
all sites into the early evening. Winds will be light overnight
and highly dependent on the surface low track tomorrow.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
339 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-041045-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
339 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through this evening for eastern
and northeastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, portions of west
Tennessee, and portions of northwest Mississippi. Slow moving
thunderstorms may produce several inches of rain in a short period
of time which may result in flash flooding.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across the Mid
South today. The primary severe weather risks will be damaging
winds, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additional storm chances are expected through this week. Any
severe storm potential during this period will remain isolated and
localized.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today across the entire Mid South.

JLH