Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Memphis, TN

515 
WGUS74 KMEG 030925
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
425 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

ARC075-121-031100-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0050.000000T0000Z-170703T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Randolph AR-Lawrence AR-
425 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT FOR
RANDOLPH AND WESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

At 424 AM CDT,Doppler Radar estimates 3 to 4 inches of rain has 
occurred over the past 2 hours. Showers and thunderstorms will 
produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain over the next 2 hours.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Pocahontas, Black Rock, Lake Charles State Park, Imboden, Ravenden,
Portia, Maynard, Strawberry, Lynn, Ravenden Springs, Annieville,
Dalton, Attica, Smithville, Powhatan, Middlebrook, Ingram, Shannon,
Birdell and Elnora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3623 9135 3624 9133 3624 9126 3626 9126
      3637 9128 3639 9131 3642 9131 3642 9135
      3650 9136 3650 9079 3607 9101 3589 9130
      3589 9136

$$

638 
WGUS54 KMEG 031026
FFWMEG
ARC075-121-031400-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FF.W.0050.000000T0000Z-170703T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
526 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

The National Weather Service in Memphis has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Randolph County in eastern Arkansas...
  Western Lawrence County in eastern Arkansas...

* Until 900 AM CDT

* At 525 AM CDT...Doppler Radar estimates 3 to 4 inches of rain has 
  occurred over the past 2 hours. Showers and thunderstorms will 
  produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain over the next 3 hours.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Pocahontas, Black Rock, Lake Charles State Park, Imboden, Ravenden,
  Portia, Maynard, Strawberry, Lynn, Ravenden Springs, Annieville,
  Dalton, Attica, Smithville, Powhatan, Middlebrook, Ingram, Shannon,
  Birdell and Elnora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3623 9135 3624 9133 3624 9126 3626 9126
      3637 9128 3639 9131 3642 9131 3642 9135
      3650 9136 3650 9079 3607 9101 3589 9130
      3589 9136

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1147 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 923 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017/

UPDATE...

A large thunderstorm complex has pushed eastward out of Oklahoma
into Western Arkansas this evening. This complex will likely
effect Eastern Arkansas shortly before midnight. The complex will
bring chances for rain for the rest of the Mid-South during the
overnight hours into Monday morning. Have already updated POPS to
reflect this thinking. No further updates are expected.

KRM

DISCUSSION.../issued 318 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017/

Skies are partly cloudy across the forecast area this afternoon
with temperatures in the 80s. There are a couple of isolated
showers over portions of north Mississippi but most areas of the
forecast area are rain free at the moment.

An upper level disturbance is moving across central Oklahoma this
afternoon. This disturbance will continue to move east tonight and
reach western Arkansas by Monday morning. The disturbance is
expected to enhance thunderstorm development and some of these
storms may reach western sections of the forecast area late
tonight. Otherwise, some isolated thunderstorms may develop this
evening before sunset.

On Monday, the disturbance will move across Arkansas and should
reach the Mississippi River by mid-afternoon. As it does, there
will be a better chance of thunderstorms mainly over western
sections of the forecast area. Temperatures may be a little cooler
than today with more clouds and thunderstorms expected. Highs on
Monday should be in the mid to upper 80s. On Monday night, the
disturbance will move out of the forecast area and weaken some.
Scattered thunderstorms are still possible with a smaller chance
of rain than during the day.

The middle of the week should see a return to more seasonable
weather with a chance of mainly afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms for Tuesday through Thursday. A weak cold front is
expected to move through the region by Thursday night. This front
may bring slightly drier air behind it so there may be a rain free
period Thursday night. There may be a few thunderstorms that
develop during the day on Friday but most area look to be rain
free Friday night.

Another cold front is expected move toward the region on Saturday
and move into the forecast area by next Sunday. This will mean
more thunderstorms will be possible next weekend. Overall,
temperatures are expected to remain near or slightly below normal
for much of the forecast period.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

Watching a complex across eastern OK/western AR that will move
across the area on Sunday. Several models move a meso surface low
just north of I-40 during the day on Sunday. Added tempos for
TSRAs to KMEM, KMKL and KJBR during Sunday morning with ocnl MVFR
cigs. KJBR will hold on the lower cigs longer due to the track of
the surface low. Most of the SHRA and TSRA activity should remain
north of KTUP so left a VCTS there for now. Not certain on
convective evolution through the afternoon so kept VCTS going at
all sites into the early evening. Winds will be light overnight
and highly dependent on the surface low track tomorrow.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
417 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-031130-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
417 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few stronger storms will be possible today with gusty winds and
heavy rainfall which may result in localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional storm chances are expected through next week. Any
severe storm potential during this period will remain isolated and
localized.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

JLH