Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
150 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An assortment of outflow boundaries are residing over the forecast
area this afternoon, with some of the latent boundaries beginning to
reappear via visible satellite imagery.  Hot temperatures areawide,
and ample low level moisture, have increased SBCape to at least 1500
J/Kg across the Permian Basin, but only 500-1000 J/Kg over the
higher terrain due to a bit drier air there.  A cold front is
located over the Texas Panhandle and easing southward.  Think
thunderstorms will develop in an uncapped atmosphere through max
heating along the mentioned outflow boundaries, a surface trough
over the trans Pecos into southeastern New Mexico, but less coverage
over the higher terrain.  Although shear is lacking for organized
convection, some of the storms could produce damaging winds due to
available energy and steep lapse rates.  Heavy rainfall/localized
flash flooding, frequent lightning strikes, and perhaps small hail
could also occur with the stronger storms.

Tonight, the potential exists for a cluster of thunderstorms or
Mesoscale Convective System to form over SE NM/NW Permian Basin, or
a little farther northward over east central NM along and behind the
front.  Any such conglomeration of storms would move slowly
southeastward along and behind the front.  Damaging winds could
occur with the stronger storms, along with frequent lightning, and
heavy rainfall/localized flash flooding.  It appears portions of the
SE NM plains, southeastward across the Upper Trans Pecos or Permian
Basin seem to be the most likely locations for these storms.  There
may be residual showers/storms over the Permian Basin Monday
morning, and a repeat of thunderstorms Monday afternoon/Monday
night, but further westward in an upslope flow regime behind the
front.  Instability could still be high enough for strong storms to
develop, but think heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be the
primary threat.  There is also the potential for widespread enough
heavy rainfall to issue a Flash Flood Watch Monday night/Tuesday
morning, at least over SE NM.  Will see how things pan out in the
next 12-18 hours before issuing a Watch.

Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal Monday/Tuesday, but
the upper ridge will begin to build back over the region Wednesday
and Thursday which will result in lower rain chances and hotter
temperatures.  Another front may make it south into the area early
next week to possibly give another chance of rain, if not normal or
below temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  86  69  86 /  70  50  40  30
Carlsbad                       72  90  69  87 /  20  20  60  30
Dryden                         75  96  74  90 /  10  20  50  30
Fort Stockton                  73  91  69  87 /  20  20  50  30
Guadalupe Pass                 68  84  64  78 /  10  40  40  30
Hobbs                          68  84  66  83 /  40  30  60  20
Marfa                          62  88  60  84 /  10  30  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           72  88  69  87 /  50  30  40  30
Odessa                         72  88  69  86 /  40  30  40  30
Wink                           73  92  70  88 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

80/67

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
119 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-071830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
119 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017 /1219 PM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight across
much of the area. Heavy rainfall, localized flash flooding, strong
winds, frequent lightning, and small hail are possible with these
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Monday through Tuesday, scattered thunderstorms will be possible
areawide. Threats will include strong winds, heavy rainfall, and
localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
250 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2017

TXZ075-081-082-062030-
Pecos TX-Terrell TX-Big Bend Area TX-
250 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PECOS...EAST
CENTRAL BREWSTER AND WEST CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM
CDT...

At 250 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Longfellow, or 22 miles west of Sanderson, moving east
at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Longfellow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3006 10290 3026 10284 3027 10246 2988 10260
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 282DEG 7KT 3016 10278

80

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
251 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2017

TXZ074-081-062030-
Big Bend Area TX-Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
251 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTY
UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 250 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Altuda, or 9 miles southeast of Alpine, moving south at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elephant Mountain Wildlife Management Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3002 10346 3012 10374 3034 10355 3027 10343
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 018DEG 11KT 3028 10353

67

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
329 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2017

TXZ075-081-062115-
Pecos TX-Big Bend Area TX-
329 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PECOS AND
NORTHEASTERN BREWSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 328 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles west of Longfellow, or 18 miles east of Marathon, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may also be occurring with this storm, and may
lead to localized flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 10317 3041 10297 3005 10256 3002 10297
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 313DEG 34KT 3022 10294

72