Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
818 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Lingering storms this evening should die out in a few hours but
most have moved away form TAF locations. Otherwise will be VFR
with a prevailing S wind.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 140 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The flow aloft over the region has become more westerly today, which
portends hotter temperatures across southeastern New Mexico and west
Texas.  However, another upper trough will amplify over the eastern
CONUS by Monday, revert the flow aloft to northwesterly, and result
in less hot temperatures and a chance of rain Monday/Tuesday.  Think
the hotter temperatures today and Sunday could aid convective
development, especially over the higher terrain today, and perhaps
into the Big Bend region Sunday afternoon/evening, but also along a
developing surface trough over the Permian Basin Sunday.  In
addition, some models are now bringing a cold front to the northern
fringes of the forecast area Sunday evening, which could result in a
better chance of rain Sunday night if a Mesoscale Convective System
(MCS) forms, then moves southeastward into the forecast area late
Sunday night/Monday morning.  Hopefully, better agreement is
forthcoming on later model runs on the frontal boundary timing/
position for Sunday night/Monday.  Thunderstorms this afternoon/
evening could produce gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall, but mid
level lapse rates will be 7-7.5 C/Km Sunday, which would promote
stronger thunderstorm winds.  A lack of shear through the
atmospheric column will likely preclude organized convection, though
an MCS would pose more of a wind and heavy rainfall threat.

As mentioned above, there is some uncertainty on the cold front
arrival, and how quickly it pushes south through the region.  It
does appear it will not be as hot over the northern half of the
forecast area Monday, with southern reaches of the area ending up
not as hot Tuesday.  Then again, a MCS Sunday night could push the
front through all but the Big Bend region by Monday afternoon.  Will
likely have to go with a compromise of faster and slower frontal
boundary solutions for high temperatures, barring better timing
agreement.  It does appear thunderstorm chances will be good
areawide Monday and Tuesday with the threat of strong winds
initially, in addition to heavy rainfall/localized flash flooding
both days.  The upper ridge will make a comeback Wednesday and
beyond, so rain chances will be on the increase, and temperatures
on the increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  98  73  86 /  10  30  40  60
Carlsbad                       72  98  72  91 /  20  20  30  30
Dryden                         75  99  77  95 /  20  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  73  97  72  93 /  10  30  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 69  91  67  84 /  20  20  20  30
Hobbs                          70  95  68  85 /  10  20  40  40
Marfa                          62  92  61  89 /  20  30  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           74  98  73  89 /  10  30  30  50
Odessa                         75  99  74  88 /  10  30  30  40
Wink                           74 101  74  93 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-061745-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
1234 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017 /1134 AM MDT Sat Aug 5 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms are possible today across much of the area. Gusty
winds and brief heavy rain will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A few thunderstorms are possible Sunday across much of the area with
gusty winds and brief heavy rain being the main threats.

Monday and Tuesday scattered thunderstorms will be possible with
strong winds, heavy rainfall, and localized flash flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
700 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

TXZ075-060045-
Pecos TX-
700 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM
CDT...

At 659 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 23
miles north of Longfellow, or 26 miles northwest of Sanderson on US
Highway 285. This storm was moving east at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm as well as very heavy rain.

LAT...LON 3039 10263 3057 10267 3066 10239 3039 10236
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 258DEG 4KT 3050 10257

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
909 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

TXZ082-060300-
Terrell TX-
909 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTY UNTIL 1000
PM CDT...

At 909 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Sanderson, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Terrell County Airport.

LAT...LON 3023 10239 3039 10224 3015 10197 2998 10221
TIME...MOT...LOC 0209Z 319DEG 11KT 3023 10226