Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
624 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

Forecasting the flight conditions for the next 12 hours is somewhat
challenging and confidence in this TAF issuance is fairly low...
Currently have some slow moving areas of convection affecting
portions of SE NM and Permian Basin this evening. A few hi-res
models indicate this activity will stick around and potentially
increase in coverage over the next several hours before finally
sweeping east across the region later tonight. That being said,
timing of convection affecting terminals is questionable and will
continue to monitor current radar trends and amend if/when needed.
Any thunderstorm/shower will be capable of heavy rainfall resulting
in low visibility. Otherwise, forecast models show low clouds
developing late tonight however this is highly dependent on what
happens with the convection overnight and will not include mention
this TAF cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 213 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is centered just north of the Great Lakes area and
another upper trough is beginning to move over the Pacific
Northwest. There is currently some rain and thunderstorms in the
area and this is expected to expand in coverage later this
afternoon. Heavy rain is likely in some areas with localized flash
flooding possible. A few strong to severe storms are possible today
along and south of the Pecos River given good CAPE values expected
areawide, mid-level lapse rates of 7 to 8 degrees C/km expected
along and south of the Pecos River, and 20 to 30 knots of shear
expected south of the Pecos River. The rain and storms are expected
to persist into the overnight hours. High temperatures today are
expected to be about 10 degrees below normal.

The upper trough over the west coast moves further east on Thursday.
This will allow for upper lift to remain over the area and low-level
moisture will be plentiful, so showers and thunderstorms will linger
in the forecast for Thursday. Temperatures are expected to warm up a
little bit from today but will still be below normal. A portion of
the upper trough moves over northern Mexico on Friday. Both the GFS
and ECMWF indicate precipitation will be across the area but the
ECMWF has a lot more than the GFS. The models are similar for
Saturday and Sunday as the upper trough is beginning to exit the
area. The amount of warm up will depend on how much cloud cover and
rain there is across the area. Upper ridging begins to develop over
the region on Monday so rain chances will decrease. Even though a
drying trend is expected heading into the middle of next week, the
models are still producing some precipitation so kept in slight
chance pops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  82  67  85 /  60  50  40  30
Carlsbad                       61  86  63  86 /  60  30  40  30
Dryden                         66  85  69  86 /  40  30  30  30
Fort Stockton                  64  86  66  86 /  50  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 57  79  59  79 /  50  40  50  30
Hobbs                          60  82  62  83 /  60  40  30  20
Marfa                          56  81  58  81 /  40  50  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           63  82  66  84 /  60  40  30  30
Odessa                         63  82  66  84 /  60  40  30  30
Wink                           63  87  66  87 /  50  30  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

27/49

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
132 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-011845-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
132 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017 /1232 PM MDT Wed May 31 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Numerous thunderstorms are expected across southeastern New Mexico
and much of West Texas through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding will be the main hazard, although a few
storms may become strong, producing small hail and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Thunderstorms are possible into next week across West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
602 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

TXZ048-312345-
Scurry TX-
602 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SCURRY COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM CDT...

At 601 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Snyder, moving north at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.  Also, rainfall rates of close to an inch per hour may
result in localized flooding of bar ditches, oil lease roads, and
other areas prone to high water.

Locations impacted include...
Snyder, Midway, Us-180 Near The Fisher-Scurry County Line and Hudd.

LAT...LON 3271 10090 3297 10105 3296 10066 3268 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 163DEG 10KT 3284 10084

70

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
612 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

TXZ050-061-010000-
Andrews TX-Ector TX-
612 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ECTOR AND
SOUTHEASTERN ANDREWS COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 612 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Goldsmith, or 15 miles south of Andrews, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Ector
and southeastern Andrews Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3206 10232 3199 10263 3224 10265 3221 10226
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 207DEG 9KT 3210 10255

49

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
535 PM MDT WED MAY 31 2017

NMZ033-034-010015-
Southern Lea County NM-Central Lea County NM-
535 PM MDT WED MAY 31 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LEA COUNTY UNTIL 615
PM MDT...

At 533 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Halfway, or 21 miles west of Eunice, moving
northwest at 5 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.  In addition, rainfall rates near an inch per hour may
cause flooding of bar ditches, oil lease roads, and other low lying
areas, especially along State Highway 176 between Halfway and Eunice.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Lea
County.

LAT...LON 3233 10339 3238 10358 3252 10370 3257 10354
      3255 10348 3253 10344 3249 10340
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 121DEG 6KT 3247 10353

70

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
818 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

TXZ061-062-010200-
Midland TX-Ector TX-
818 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ECTOR AND
NORTHWESTERN MIDLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 814 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Odessa, or 10 miles west of Midland International Air and Space
Port, moving east at 10 mph.  Another strong thunderstorm was
located about 12 miles north of West Odessa, also moving east at
10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.  In addition, rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
may result in localized flooding of urban areas, bar ditches, and
other areas susceptible to high water.

Locations impacted include...
Midland, Odessa, West Odessa, Midland International Air and Space
Port, Mission Dorado, Odessa Schelemeyer Field, North Cowden,
Warfield and Midland Airpark.

THIS INCLUDES Interstate 20 between mile markers 109 and 137.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3179 10265 3208 10255 3208 10201 3178 10215
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 287DEG 7KT 3194 10234

70

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