Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
209 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Nondescript WSW mid level flow with low level mstr backed w into the
mtns today and this weakish flow aloft will favor a wwd position of
the dryline this PM. Instabilty e of the dryline will be modulated
by steep 7h-5h LR's around 8 C/KM, surface dewpoints in the M50s-
M60s, along with an abundance of insolation. MLCAPES will be around
3000 J/KG or higher. For the last several days there has been a
consistent signal that storms will develop INVOF eastern slopes
Davis Mtns to Glass Mtns with storms more isolated along the
dryline across the PB. If there is limiting factor today is would
be shear/weak mid level wind fields. However instability will make
up for it, IMO. Supercell potential will be limited, but severe
storms seems likely. Across the PB storms will dissipate by mid
evening, but are more likely to persist across the Lower Trans
Pecos as they track e-se late into the evening. PoP forecast looks
ok, but will include a mention of severe storms. ECMWF has been
consisent with storms across the far eastern CWFA overnight,
contingent upon storms forming to n and tracking e-se overnight.
We are less confident about this with lack of support aloft. Low
level mstr will again hold a wwd position Monday and a few more
storms are expected across the Trans Pecos (Davis Mtns e), less
along the dryline in the PB. PoPs will be absent from the forecast
Tue/Wed with drier air advancing farther e each day. Meanwhile,
high temps will increase much moreso then as thermal ridge
expands, highs in the 90s will be widespread. Wed will probably be
the warmest day of this forecast cycle. A cold front may just
make it into nrn CWFA Thur PM, but still unseasonably warm for
most all areas. Warmer yet Friday ahead a cold front that will
result in cooler temps next weekend (below normal).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  84  61  87 /  30  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       51  90  52  92 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         64  86  61  86 /  60  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  59  86  60  91 /  40  20  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 59  85  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          54  83  57  88 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                          47  82  49  86 /  20  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           62  85  60  88 /  30  20  10   0
Odessa                         61  85  60  88 /  20  20  10   0
Wink                           60  89  59  92 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
129 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-171830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
129 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 /1229 PM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

There is a chance of thunderstorms through tonight, mainly along and
east of a Lamesa to Pecos to Marfa line. A few storms could become
severe with damaging winds and large hail possible, especially across
the Stockton Plateau and Big Bend. Brief heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning will also accompany the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Monday and Monday night
across west Texas. A few storms could produce brief strong winds and
hail. Brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will also
accompany the stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

There is a 30 percent chance of spotter activation this afternoon
and this evening.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
304 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

TXZ074-075-079>082-170100-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-
Including the cities of Alpine, Fort Davis, Fort Stockton,
Presidio, Marfa, Big Bend NP, Marathon, Dryden, and Sanderson
304 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

...Land Spouts Possible This Afternoon...

Reports have been received about Land Spouts near Alpine this
afternoon.  The atmosphere is primed for severe thunderstorm
development this afternoon and evening, however tornadic
thunderstorms are unlikely due to a lack of shear.  Additional
Land Spouts could occur though, especially considering how
unstable the airmass will remain into this evening.  Land Spouts
are usually short lived, and could result in minor damage.  These
features are typically weak and brief in nature.