Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

596 
WWUS54 KMAF 161932
SVSMAF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
232 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

TXC043-371-162000-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-170416T2000Z/
Pecos TX-Brewster TX-
232 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN PECOS AND NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTIES...

At 231 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Alpine-
Casparis Municipal Airport, or near Alpine, moving northeast at 5 
mph. A second severe storm was 4 miles east of Alpine. om highway 67.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Alpine, Altuda and Sierra Madera. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3014 10359 3046 10368 3073 10287 3044 10266
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 215DEG 5KT 3046 10364 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

49

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1243 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

Currently have VFR conditions across the region, which will persist
at most terminals through the remainder of the TAF period. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening,
potentially affecting MAF and FST. Highest confidence is for
activity to affect FST around 16/22Z or so however already seeing
some light radar returns just south of terminal. For now, have a
TEMPO TSRA starting at 22Z but will continue to monitor and amend if
needed. Gusty/erratic winds, hail, lightning and heavy rainfall
(contributing to low vis) will be possible with any thunderstorm
that develops.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level disturbance moving across the area this morning has
caused convection in the Big Bend which is currently crossing into
northern Mexico. Remnants of this disturbance will still be around
this afternoon causing another round of storms to develop near
the time of peak heating. A dryline located from southeast New
Mexico to the Big Bend could provide a surface focus for
convective initiation and have kept PoPs today along and east of
this feature though the highest PoPs are in the Big Bend and lower
Trans Pecos where the Davis Mountains will enhance lift. Shear
values this afternoon are marginal (20-25kts 0-6km) but CAPE is
impressive exceeding 3KJ/Kg so any storms developing could become
severe.

Monday will see fewer storms as an upper level ridge begins nosing
over into West Texas providing a stronger cap. While suppressing
convection the ridge will also cause temperatures to rise above
normal with many areas reaching the 90s for highs this week.
Then models are showing an upper low will move east out of
northern California and into the central Rockies by Friday. The
path of this low seems too far north to bring a good chance for
rainfall but it will push a cold front south dropping temperatures
back to near or below normal to end the week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     83  61  84  60 /  30  30  20  20
Carlsbad                       92  54  89  54 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         85  61  85  61 /  20  60  20  20
Fort Stockton                  86  59  84  60 /  30  40  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 85  56  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          84  55  82  56 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          82  50  82  51 /  30  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           84  60  85  61 /  20  30  20  10
Odessa                         83  59  84  60 /  20  20  20  10
Wink                           89  58  87  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

27/49

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
129 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-171830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
129 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 /1229 PM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

There is a chance of thunderstorms through tonight, mainly along and
east of a Lamesa to Pecos to Marfa line. A few storms could become
severe with damaging winds and large hail possible, especially across
the Stockton Plateau and Big Bend. Brief heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning will also accompany the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Monday and Monday night
across west Texas. A few storms could produce brief strong winds and
hail. Brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will also
accompany the stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

There is a 30 percent chance of spotter activation this afternoon
and this evening.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland