Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
830 PM CDT Tue Apr 2017

.Discussion...

Area of convection will gradually move east into the CWA this
evening and an isolated severe storm will be possible, with mainly
large hail and damaging winds the main threats. These storms were
associated with an upper low pressure storm system moving through
the region. Later tonight, the surface system and cold front will
move across AR and push the storms to eastern AR, then on Monday out
of AR. Some lighter convection may still be possible mainly over
northern AR before the entire system moves out of the region. Models
are consistent that winds will be elevated on Wednesday from the
west and be 10 to 20 mph with gusts around 30 mph over much of the
state, and a lake wind advisory will be issued for most of AR from
mid-morning to the evening. Late evening update will fine tune
convection chances, timing and include the lake wind advisory. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 620 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017/
.Aviation...

VFR flight conditions will start the forecast. An upper and surface
low pressure systems, as well as a cold front, with move across AR
tonight to Wednesday morning, and bring VFR ceilings with patchy
MVFR ceilings with showers and thunderstorms. The main area affected
will be northern AR. An isolated strong to severe storm may be seen.
Winds ahead of the system will be southeast at 5 to 15 mph with some
gusts to around 20 mph. Winds will become south to southwest later
tonight, then west to northwest behind the cold front. Winds will
remain elevated behind the front and be 10 to 25 mph with some gusts
around 30 to 35 mph on Wednesday. Most of the convection will push
east of AR during the day Wednesday. A low level jet will be present
this evening and early into the overnight, and some wind shear may
be seen at all Tafs. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 254 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday
19z subjective surface analysis indicates developing low pressure
between Lawton and Oklahoma City, with a warm front extending
northeastward to southwest Missouri. Strong pressure falls were
noted near and to the north of the warm front. Satellite imagery
indicates short amplitude yet potent short wave energy moving
northeast into southwest Oklahoma.

Convection is expected to develop quickly late this afternoon,
focused on the warm frontal boundary. Forecast storm motion vectors
indicate a northeast movement with storms that develop this
afternoon. Much of this activity should affect areas to the
northwest of the LZK forecast area. As the evening progresses,
convection should obtain a more eastward movement, while overall
intensity decreases with increasing stability.

Gusty westerly surface winds are expected during the afternoon on
Wednesday, in the wake of a cold front moving eastward through the
mid south. Afternoon temperatures on Wednesday will average 15-20
degrees lower than those of this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
A deep upper low pressure system will be over New England to begin
the long term period with an upper ridge over the Rockies. The upper
low will slowly move through the northeast U.S. through Friday. The
upper ridge moves into the Plains for Friday and Saturday...then to
the eastern U.S. for Sunday. Another upper low moves into the
northern Plains Sunday but should move into the Great Lakes for
Monday and Tuesday. Southwest flow will return to Arkansas for
Sunday night through Tuesday.

Models are in good agreement with a dry period Thursday night
through Sunday with high pressure generally in control. The high
moves east of Arkansas Sunday and moisture will return. A cold front
moves into the Plains Monday and we will see rain chances increase
over Arkansas on Sunday night and Monday then decrease on Tuesday.
The cold front moves through Arkansas on Tuesday. After a cool
Friday, temperatures will return to above normal values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     57  60  44  62 /  40  20  10   0
Camden AR         57  64  45  70 /  20  10   0   0
Harrison AR       51  53  40  58 /  70  40  10   0
Hot Springs AR    56  60  45  67 /  40  20   0   0
Little Rock   AR  59  61  46  66 /  30  20  10   0
Monticello AR     61  65  47  67 /  20  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      53  58  43  66 /  50  20   0   0
Mountain Home AR  53  57  41  61 /  60  40  10   0
Newport AR        58  62  45  62 /  30  20  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     59  63  46  67 /  20  10   0   0
Russellville AR   54  57  43  65 /  60  20   0   0
Searcy AR         57  61  43  64 /  30  20  10   0
Stuttgart AR      61  63  45  65 /  30  10  10  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...55 / Long Term...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
730 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
730 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move into western Arkansas
this evening, and move across the state tonight. The storms are
ahead of a storm system to the west of Arkansas. This activity will
affect much of northern and parts of central Arkansas, while less
over southern areas. A few strong or severe storms will be possible,
primarily this evening, over northwest Arkansas. Large hail and
damaging winds are the main threats. The storms are expected to
gradually weaken as the move across the state overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Windy conditions are expected during the late morning to evening on
Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the region Wednesday and
Thursday. Patchy frost will be possible in sheltered valley areas of
northern and western Arkansas early Friday morning.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Limited spotter activation may be required across northwest sections
during the evening hours.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

55/44/57/59

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