Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
335 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

.Short Term...Tonight through Saturday

Upper low was centered ovr NWRN OK this aftn, resulting in a
persistent SW flow aloft acrs AR. Have seen convection expand acrs
ERN OK and NW AR in advance of the upr support. Additional activity
has also started to form over NERN TX into SRN AR, ahead of an upr
impulse rotating arnd the main upr low. Even with plenty of cloud
cover, mid aftn temps range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s.

The model solutions rmn in overall good agreement with fcst trends
thru the short term. Convection wl cont to expand in areal coverage
fm W to E ovr AR heading into tngt. Still looking at the potential
for some strong/svr storms early in the fcst pd, especially where
better daytime heating has occurred. 18z special RAOB from LZK indcs
SBCAPE arnd 2200 j/kg. Wind fields are rather weak/low shear with
large hail and damaging winds being the main concern tngt.

Still looking at a general 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches of total rainfall
acrs the FA thru Fri, with main axis of heavier rain still expected
ovr SERN AR. Due to the progressive nature of this first round of
rainfall thru tngt, the FF potential does not appear very high and
wl not issue any headlines.

The aforementioned upr low is still progged to eventually work EWD
acrs AR Fri and early Fri ngt. Moisture/lift assocd with this
feature wl produce good chances of showers and some thunder on Fri.
Rain chcs wl diminish fm the NW late Fri and early Fri evening as
the system shifts away fm the area. Drier and slightly cooler conds
wl return heading into the weekend.
&&

.Long Term...Saturday Night through Thursday

A ridge of high pressure will build over Arkansas from the Plains in
the extended period. The high will then park over the southeast
United States, and will hold a storm system and front to our west
for several days.

For much of the period, it will be dry and warm. Above average
temperatures are in the forecast. Finally have scattered showers and
thunderstorms building into the state from the west Wednesday and
Thursday. This may be too fast.

The incoming storm system is rather large, and there will be plenty
of moisture available when it eventually gets here. Given this, we
may be looking at a heavy rain event as the period ends or just
after the period. The timing is in question due to the
aforementioned ridge.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...44 / Long Term...46

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
515 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-121000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
515 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong to severe storms are possible this evening and into the
overnight, as an upper storm system and cold front move through the
region. The main threats of any severe storms will be large hail and
damaging winds. An isolated tornado may also be seen. Isolated
locations of heavy rain will also be seen.

A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop along the
boundary as it crosses the state later Thursday evening. Along and
ahead of the cold front, some strong to possibly severe storms with
large hail and damaging winds will be possible.

A general inch to an inch and a half of rain is expected with this
system. Some locally heavy rainfall may also be seen.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday Through Wednesday

Some lingering chances for thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
for Friday as an upper level system moves over the state. While the
overall threat for severe weather will remain low...an isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms may still be possible. The primary
threat with any of these storms on Friday will be large hail.
Otherwise...expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain
low through the middle of next week.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening to the early overnight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

56/62/59

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
401 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             CAVE CITY               35.94N  91.55W
05/11/2017  M1.00 INCH       SHARP              AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700173

CROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
413 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             OXFORD                  36.22N  91.93W
05/11/2017  E1.00 INCH       IZARD              AR   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700174

CROSS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
442 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     HAIL             BULL SHOALS             36.38N  92.58W
05/11/2017  M2.50 INCH       MARION             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700176

CROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
524 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     HAIL             1 NNW MOUNTAIN HOME     36.35N  92.39W
05/11/2017  M1.00 INCH       BAXTER             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700177

CROSS