Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
335 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

.Short Term...Tonight through Saturday

Upper low was centered ovr NWRN OK this aftn, resulting in a
persistent SW flow aloft acrs AR. Have seen convection expand acrs
ERN OK and NW AR in advance of the upr support. Additional activity
has also started to form over NERN TX into SRN AR, ahead of an upr
impulse rotating arnd the main upr low. Even with plenty of cloud
cover, mid aftn temps range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s.

The model solutions rmn in overall good agreement with fcst trends
thru the short term. Convection wl cont to expand in areal coverage
fm W to E ovr AR heading into tngt. Still looking at the potential
for some strong/svr storms early in the fcst pd, especially where
better daytime heating has occurred. 18z special RAOB from LZK indcs
SBCAPE arnd 2200 j/kg. Wind fields are rather weak/low shear with
large hail and damaging winds being the main concern tngt.

Still looking at a general 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches of total rainfall
acrs the FA thru Fri, with main axis of heavier rain still expected
ovr SERN AR. Due to the progressive nature of this first round of
rainfall thru tngt, the FF potential does not appear very high and
wl not issue any headlines.

The aforementioned upr low is still progged to eventually work EWD
acrs AR Fri and early Fri ngt. Moisture/lift assocd with this
feature wl produce good chances of showers and some thunder on Fri.
Rain chcs wl diminish fm the NW late Fri and early Fri evening as
the system shifts away fm the area. Drier and slightly cooler conds
wl return heading into the weekend.
&&

.Long Term...Saturday Night through Thursday

A ridge of high pressure will build over Arkansas from the Plains in
the extended period. The high will then park over the southeast
United States, and will hold a storm system and front to our west
for several days.

For much of the period, it will be dry and warm. Above average
temperatures are in the forecast. Finally have scattered showers and
thunderstorms building into the state from the west Wednesday and
Thursday. This may be too fast.

The incoming storm system is rather large, and there will be plenty
of moisture available when it eventually gets here. Given this, we
may be looking at a heavy rain event as the period ends or just
after the period. The timing is in question due to the
aforementioned ridge.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...44 / Long Term...46

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
500 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-121000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
500 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A storm system in the southern plains will be moving towards the
state today with scattered showers and thunderstorms increasing as
the day progresses.

The associated cold front will enter the western part of the state
this afternoon. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
develop along the boundary as it crosses the state through the
evening hours. Some of the storms could be strong to possibly severe
with large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concern.

A general inch to an inch and a half of rain is expected with this
system. Some locally heavy rainfall may also be seen.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Some lingering chances for thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
for Friday as an upper level system moves over the state. While the
overall threat for severe weather will remain low...an isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms may still be possible. The primary
threat with any of these storms on Friday will be large hail.
Otherwise...expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain
low through the middle of next week.
.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed Thursday afternoon to evening.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

56/59

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
327 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             CAULKSVILLE             35.30N  93.86W
05/11/2017  E1.25 INCH       LOGAN              AR   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700170

JBH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
330 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     HAIL             3 NE CAUTHRON           35.20N  93.83W
05/11/2017  E2.75 INCH       LOGAN              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BASEBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED WEST OF PARIS... AR

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700171

CROSS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
331 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

ARZ006-015-112100-
Fulton AR-Izard AR-
331 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN IZARD...CENTRAL
FULTON AND NORTHWESTERN SHARP COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 331 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oxford, or 10 miles south of Salem in Fulton County, moving northeast
at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cherokee Village...               Salem in Fulton County...
Horseshoe Bend...                 Oxford...
Franklin...                       Agnos...
Heart...                          Morriston...
Glencoe...                        Fryatt...
Violet Hill...                    Kittle...
Wheeling...                       Union...
Saddle...                         Larkin...
Salem Airport...                  Wiseman...
Camp...                           Saddler Falls...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3636 9146 3633 9150 3634 9156 3630 9156
      3625 9163 3625 9168 3622 9169 3611 9186
      3624 9202 3650 9176 3650 9163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 225DEG 24KT 3623 9188

226

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             OMAHA                   36.45N  93.19W
05/11/2017  M2.75 INCH       BOONE              AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700172

JBH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
401 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             CAVE CITY               35.94N  91.55W
05/11/2017  M1.00 INCH       SHARP              AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700173

CROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
413 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             OXFORD                  36.22N  91.93W
05/11/2017  E1.00 INCH       IZARD              AR   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700174

CROSS