Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
321 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday
Biggest issue in the short term will be dealing with convection
ahead of the cold front tonight, as well as remaining severe
chances, and heavy rainfall possibilities.

As of now, cold front is basically from near Harrison to between
Mena and Poteau. Convection out ahead of the front has been severe
in places, shifting from northern/western Arkansas this morning to
southern Arkansas this afternoon. The south will be where the
highest severe chances will be, as low pressure pushes northeast
into Arkansas, and interacts with an instability axis over
southern into southeastern Arkansas. Additional rainfall could be
heavy at times, which could lead to localized flash flooding
issues.

Convection will push eastward through the evening, as the front
moves on across the state. Front will shift eastward, stalling out
briefly to the south of Arkansas. By Friday, the front will move
back to the north, then stall out in the vicinity of western and
northwest Arkansas. This will lead to issues into the weekend.
More on that in the long term discussion...
&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
After a drying out period during the end of the short term period,
the long term is shaping up to be a very wet period, with perhaps
some severe storms sprinkled in for good measure.

First, the pattern.  Broad troughing over the Rockies will yield
southwesterly flow over the Mid and Lower Mississippi River Valley
areas Friday night into Saturday. The trough will deepen Saturday as
it transitions to a closed upper low, before ejecting northeast
across the southern and central plains late Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Meanwhile at the surface, a stalled frontal boundary
will be positioned across northern Arkansas. This will act as a
focus for showers and thunderstorms, and resulting heavy rains,
Friday evening through early Sunday. Eventually, as the upper low
ejects into the Saturday night, this front will shift east and exit
the state. Until it does so however, copious amounts of Gulf
moisture will stream northward into Arkansas to feed the convection
that develops, which will result in heavy rains. Forecast PWAT
values in some guidance are nearing or above all-time highs. Whether
this is realized is irrelevant, as the pattern supports PWAT plumes
that will be well above normal.

Now, onto the nitty gritty. There are two hazards for this upcoming
weekend. First, forecast rainfall amounts from Friday afternoon
through Sunday are quite impressive. Some guidance indicates double
digit rainfall totals could occur in portions of west central
Arkansas during this period. While it's hard to say whether that
will be realized or not, what we are confident in saying is that
widespread rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches appear to be a
very good bet. This axis of heavy rain will likely be centered from
around Johnson/Logan counties up through Sharp county, with the
heaviest amounts predicted to be from perhaps Stone or Searcy county
back to the west. This will generate some flash flooding and river
flooding. The scope of the flooding will depend largely on exactly
where that axis of heavy rain sets up and how wide it is, and
obviously the end amounts. However it would probably be wise to pay
attention to the forecasts over the next day or two as clarity in
the details will offer a better idea of what to expect.

The second hazard will be the severe storms aspect. Forecast
soundings through this period, look sufficient for supercell
thunderstorms. While several waves of convection are expected, the
most likely periods for severe storms looks to be Friday evening and
Friday night, and then again late Saturday night as the upper trough
moves through the plains. Instability and shear all appear
sufficient to produce at least some severe weather, with damaging
winds and hail being the primary threats. Tornadoes will also be a
possibility, but the nocturnal timing of storms makes this a
difficult call. As with the flooding aspect, time will bring clarity
to the details of this setup so individuals are encouraged to
continue to monitor future forecasts.

By midday Sunday the upper trough will be overhead, while the cold
front and associated convection will be east of the state. A much
needed dry spell is expected to round out the long term period.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As conditions will be rather wet into next week, no significant
fire weather issues are anticipated.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     48  71  56  79 /  80  10  20  40
Camden AR         47  76  59  85 /  60  10  10  20
Harrison AR       42  67  55  76 /  60  10  40  40
Hot Springs AR    46  73  58  81 /  50  10  10  30
Little Rock   AR  50  72  57  80 /  70  10  10  40
Monticello AR     51  75  60  85 /  80  10  10  20
Mount Ida AR      43  73  58  81 /  40  10  20  40
Mountain Home AR  44  68  54  78 /  70  10  40  40
Newport AR        50  70  57  79 /  90  10  20  40
Pine Bluff AR     50  74  57  83 /  80  10  10  30
Russellville AR   45  72  56  79 /  50  10  20  40
Searcy AR         49  71  55  79 /  80  10  20  40
Stuttgart AR      51  72  58  82 /  80  10  10  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-
Baxter-Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-
Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-
Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-
Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-
Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-
White-Woodruff-Yell.
&&

Short Term...57 / Long Term...64

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
500 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-271000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
500 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are forecast today. The chance for
thunderstorms will increase throughout the day and part of
tonight, as an upper storm system and cold front move through the
region. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to
form this afternoon to evening, and move through Arkansas. Damaging
winds and large hail will be the main concerns, but tornadoes
will be possible with any discrete storms that do develop out
ahead of the line of storms, as well as along the leading edge of
the main thunderstorm line. The Storm Prediction Center has placed
much of Arkansas in an Enhanced Risk area, while parts of southern
Arkansas are in a Moderate Risk. Area residents should monitor the
weather closely today. Also, winds will be elevated today and a
lake wind advisory will be in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

The potential for severe weather returns again by Friday, as a
warm front lifts northward across Arkansas. Large hail and
damaging winds will once again be the main threats. The potential
for heavy rainfall will also exist, increasing the concern for
flash flooding and river flooding.

The unsettled weather pattern will continue into the weekend. Yet
another storm could produce additional severe weather over the Mid-
South as a new cold front is forecast to move through the region.
Due to forecast uncertainties with this system, please continue to
monitor the latest outlooks from your NWS office.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed today, Friday and Saturday. Please
monitor the latest forecasts over the several few days.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

59/51

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
411 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ENE MABELVALE         34.67N 92.36W
04/26/2017                   PULASKI            AR   PUBLIC

            FLASH FLOODING WAS REPORTED...WITH SOME VEHICLES
            STRANDED.

&&

57

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
414 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

ARZ066-067-262200-
Calhoun AR-Ouachita AR-
414 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CALHOUN AND OUACHITA COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 414 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Poison Springs State Park to 6 miles
southwest of Cullendale to near Mount Holly. Movement was east at
45 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Camden...                         Hampton...
Bearden...                        Calion...
Thornton...                       Chidester...
Harrell...                        Louann...
Poison Springs State Park...      Cullendale...
Ellisville...                     Harlow...
Hampton Municipal Airport...      Highland Industrial Park...
East Camden...                    Tinsman...
Artesian...                       Delhi...
Harmony Grove...                  Millers Bluff...

A tornado watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for southeastern
and southwestern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3336 9254 3337 9259 3336 9262 3337 9264
      3336 9268 3339 9276 3337 9278 3338 9305
      3348 9300 3369 9304 3379 9239 3360 9232
      3334 9241 3333 9253
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 260DEG 46KT 3363 9295 3349 9293 3333 9302

46

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
456 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRINKLEY                34.88N 91.19W
04/26/2017                   MONROE             AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            A MOBILE ROAD SIGN WAS BLOWN DOWN ON INTERSTATE 40 AT
            BRINKLEY.

&&

57