River Flood Warning 12, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.Aviation...

VFR flight conditions with patchy MVFR conditions will be seen to
start the forecast. Isolated IFR conditions may also develop early
this morning. To the west, an area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will slowly move east, and mainly affect KHRO and KBPK
this morning. Winds will be southeast to southwest at 10 to 20 mph
with some possible higher gusts. Later today, a cold front and upper
weather system are expected to move through the area, and a line of
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will be seen with strong
gusty winds, low ceilings and a wind shift to the northwest behind
the cold front. The showers and thunderstorms will affect all Tafs
today. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 409 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are severe storm chances
today, then again Friday and over the weekend. Possible heavy rain
potential with flooding of some rivers and possible flash
flooding. Also elevated surface winds today will prompt a lake
wind advisory being issued.

Current area of convection, with a few strong storms noted,
continues to move east northeast and slowly weaken. Earlier over
OK, did see more wind and hail reports from severe storms. It is
expected this area will gradually weaken and dissipate this
morning over northern AR. To the west, a cold front was over
central OK to northern MO, and this front and upper shortwave
system will move through AR later today and tonight, and bring the
potential for severe storms to much of AR. Early morning
temperatures were from the 50s north and the rain was, to the 60s
to 70s over central and southern areas. Dewpoint temperatures were
from the upper 50s north, 60s central and south. Precip water
values were well over an inch. The Storm Prediction Center has
much of AR in a Slight to Enhance severe storm threat today, as
well as a Moderate risk over southern areas. Factors are coming
together for a possible significant severe storm threat,
especially over southern AR where the risk of severe storms may be
the greatest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

The forecast will start with the early morning threat of an
isolated severe storm in northwest AR with likely to cat showers
and thunderstorms. As the day progresses, the cold front and upper
storm system will move into the through AR later tonight. Plenty
of lift, moisture and instability will be present over AR, for the
development of thunderstorms, with the potential for severe
storms. The overall scenario appears to be a line of strong to
severe storms to develop along or just ahead of the cold front,
matching with the main upper lift. Damaging winds and large hail
would be the primary threats, with a possible tornado along the
leading edge. Forecast models are not showing a high potential for
individual storms out ahead of the front, which could become
tornadic sooner and possibly develop to a stronger tornado threat
over southern to southeast AR. This will have to be monitored
closely through the day. Otherwise, rain amounts will be from
around half an inch to over an inch, with a fews spots seeing over
2 inches. This could lead to some flash flooding and additional
river flooding in some locations. Models project the storms to
push out of AR around mid-night, then surface high pressure will
build in behind the front. A dry weather forecast on Thursday as
the surface high moves across the region. Late Thursday night into
Friday, the next upper shortwave approaches northwest AR, and a
chance of convection is back in the forecast. Otherwise,
temperatures will be around normal values to a bit above normal
today and Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

Upper low pressure will be over the northern Great Lakes to begin
the long term period. An upper low develops over the Rockies on
Friday with southwest flow over Arkansas. This low drops south
into New Mexico and Texas Saturday before ejecting northeast
Sunday. Northwest flow returns to Arkansas on Monday. Weak ridging
develops over Arkansas Tuesday.

A warm front is expected to be over north Arkansas Friday with the
next cold front across Oklahoma and Texas. Little movement of the
cold front is anticipated through Saturday but will move through
Arkansas early Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are expected with this
front and heavy rainfall will result from the slow movement of the
front. Good rain chances are expected Friday and Saturday then will
decrease on Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure will return for
Monday with dry conditions. A weak short wave moving through the
area Tuesday will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be above normal Friday and Saturday, otherwise
they will be near to below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     73  48  69  56 /  70  80  10  20
Camden AR         80  49  76  59 /  80  60  10  10
Harrison AR       69  43  68  55 /  90  60  10  40
Hot Springs AR    76  47  73  58 /  80  50  10  20
Little Rock   AR  77  50  72  57 /  80  70  10  20
Monticello AR     80  52  76  60 /  50  80  10  10
Mount Ida AR      74  45  72  58 /  80  40  10  20
Mountain Home AR  71  45  69  54 /  80  70  10  40
Newport AR        75  51  70  56 /  60  80  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     78  51  74  58 /  70  80  10  10
Russellville AR   74  46  72  56 /  90  50  10  30
Searcy AR         75  49  71  55 /  80  80  10  20
Stuttgart AR      78  52  73  58 /  70  80  10  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-
Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-
Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-
Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-
Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van
Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

Short Term...59 / Long Term...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
500 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-271000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
500 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are forecast today. The chance for
thunderstorms will increase throughout the day and part of
tonight, as an upper storm system and cold front move through the
region. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to
form this afternoon to evening, and move through Arkansas. Damaging
winds and large hail will be the main concerns, but tornadoes
will be possible with any discrete storms that do develop out
ahead of the line of storms, as well as along the leading edge of
the main thunderstorm line. The Storm Prediction Center has placed
much of Arkansas in an Enhanced Risk area, while parts of southern
Arkansas are in a Moderate Risk. Area residents should monitor the
weather closely today. Also, winds will be elevated today and a
lake wind advisory will be in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

The potential for severe weather returns again by Friday, as a
warm front lifts northward across Arkansas. Large hail and
damaging winds will once again be the main threats. The potential
for heavy rainfall will also exist, increasing the concern for
flash flooding and river flooding.

The unsettled weather pattern will continue into the weekend. Yet
another storm could produce additional severe weather over the Mid-
South as a new cold front is forecast to move through the region.
Due to forecast uncertainties with this system, please continue to
monitor the latest outlooks from your NWS office.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed today, Friday and Saturday. Please
monitor the latest forecasts over the several few days.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1032 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 AM     HAIL             CENTERVILLE             35.12N 93.17W
04/26/2017  E1.00 INCH       YELL               AR   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT.

&&

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1044 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NW MORRILTON          35.22N 92.82W
04/26/2017                   CONWAY             AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            NUMEROUS TREES REPORTED DOWN.

&&

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1045 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1039 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW WONDERVIEW        35.34N 92.75W
04/26/2017                   CONWAY             AR   PUBLIC

            TREES REPORTED TO BE DOWN.

&&

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1103 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 AM     HAIL             APPLETON                35.42N 92.87W
04/26/2017  E1.00 INCH       POPE               AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

55

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1132 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

ARZ041-042-052>054-261715-
Hot Spring AR-Pike AR-Clark AR-Garland AR-Montgomery AR-
1132 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CLARK...NORTHERN
PIKE...WESTERN GARLAND...SOUTHERN YELL...WEST CENTRAL HOT SPRING AND
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CDT...

At 1132 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Daisy, or 12 miles north of Murfreesboro, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hot Springs...                    Mount Ida...
Glenwood...                       Mountain Pine...
Amity...                          Norman...
Daisy...                          Hot Springs Memorial Field...
Daisy State Park...               Narrows Dam...
Meyers...                         Lofton...
Rockwell...                       Piney in Garland County...
Lake Ouachita State Park...       Hot Springs National Park...
Avant...                          Bismarck...
Black Springs...                  Oaklawn Racetrack...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for central,
western and southwestern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3476 9338 3440 9294 3411 9382 3418 9382
      3418 9384 3435 9389
TIME...MOT...LOC 1632Z 243DEG 46KT 3424 9374

Cavanaugh

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1135 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DARDANELLE              35.23N 93.17W
04/26/2017                   YELL               AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SEVERAL TREES REPORTED DOWN IN DARDANELLE

&&

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