Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1245 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the early morning
hours. The thunderstorms in the northwest will very slowly move
east. In the meantime scattered thunderstorms will continue ahead
of the large area. Movement will tend to be toward the north.
Gusty winds are anticipated in the thunderstorms. Visibility will
be reduced to one mile at times. Good chances of thunderstorms
will continue today and during the evening. MVFR and IFR
conditions will be common.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 630 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017
)

AVIATION...
Active weather expected through the period, with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. First wave will be scattered,
primarily in the central and north/northeast this evening, then
more late tonight, and more during the day Saturday. Prevailing
conditions will become MVFR, locally restricted with any heavier
precipitation. Winds will primarily be out of the south, except
variable and gusty near thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 236 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Coverage of SHRA has been a bit more scattered this afternoon
compared to the isolated coverage seen on Thu afternoon.
Additional...more organized SHRA and some TSRA were ongoing across
NE OK. This activity will continue to lift NE into far NW AR and SW
MO this afternoon...with a few of the NWRN counties seeing some
potential of this activity remaining organized as it moves over that
portion of the state. Elsewhere...expected the isolated to scattered
SHRA and a few TSRA through the rest of the afternoon and early
evening hrs.

This evening and overnight...additional convection will become more
likely as activity develops to the west and SW in OK...and moves
ENE into AR. This will be similar to what happened this
morning...just a bit further south. Given the similar setup...do
expect some potential for SVR Wx...with damaging winds the primary
hazard...especially as the convection develops into a potential
bowing complex. Some hail may also be seen...but lesser potential
than the wind. There could also be a some brief tornado potential
along the leading edge of this bowing line of convection.

By sunrise Sat...do expect this overnight convection to be weakening
as it pushes east of the CWA. Will see some lingering SHRA/TSRA in
the morning across central/SRN sections of the CWA...but then should
see a break in the organized convection by around midday. Could
still see some scattered SHRA/TSRA during the midday time frame. By
the afternoon and early evening hrs...a cold front will move into
the state from the NW...with additional SHRA/TSRA expected to develop
along/ahead of the front. This front will then push SE through the
rest of the CWA by sunrise Sun...with cooler and more stable
conditions expected for the rest of Sun.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday

We will enter a brief period of drier weather heading into the
start of the new work week. The aforementioned storm system wl be
working EWD away fm the AR Sun night, with SFC high pressure
working into the region. One thing to watch for Mon into Mon night
is the potential for any MCS to the NW of the FA, possibly
affecting parts of AR. Have kept the fcst dry for now, but wl
continue to watch model trends.

Another upr trof/CDFNT wl push thru the area Tue and Tue night, with
scattered convection expected. Some residual moisture working arnd
the upr trof could produce some lingering rain chances over parts of
NERN AR on Wed. Drier conds wl return to close out the work week.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1015 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-201000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
1015 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move into the state during
the overnight hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible out ahead of the line as well.

Some thunderstorms could be severe, with large hail and damaging
winds the primary threats. A tornado or two will also be possible
into the early morning hours, primarily with storms ahead of the
line.

Stronger storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, which
could lead to localized flash flooding issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday Through Thursday

Additional thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday...with
mainly scattered activity through early Saturday afternoon. A
cold front will move southeast through the state Saturday
afternoon through Sunday morning. Additional organized
thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of this cold front
as it moves southeast through the state. Drier and cooler
conditions will be seen by Sunday afternoon...with dry conditions
persisting through Monday.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed through tonight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

62/44/57

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1105 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

ARZ012-013-200445-
Searcy AR-Newton AR-
1105 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON...NEWTON...
NORTHWESTERN SEARCY AND NORTHERN POPE COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1105 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Moore, or 16 miles southeast of Jasper, moving north at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper...                         Western Grove...
Carver...                         Erbie...
Moore...                          Point Peter...
Eula...                           Lost Valley State Park...
Piercetown...                     Walnut...
Pruitt...                         Upper Buffalo Wilderness Area...
St. Joe...                        Pindall...
Ben Hur...                        Bass...
Marble Falls...                   Yardelle...
Crossroad...                      Swain...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for western,
central and north central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3611 9284 3607 9284 3606 9278 3572 9295
      3573 9336 3612 9344
TIME...MOT...LOC 0405Z 186DEG 24KT 3578 9307

Cavanaugh

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

ARZ003-200515-
Boone AR-
1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BOONE COUNTY UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

At 1129 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Capps, or 3 miles southeast of Alpena, moving north at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Harrison...                       Bergman...
Omaha...                          Myrtle...
Capps...                          Roberson Hollow...
Self...                           Red Bank...
Alpena...                         Crumpler Subdivision...
Batavia...                        Bear Creek Springs...
New Hope in Boone County...       Hopewell in Boone County...
Ridgeway...                       Gaither...
Burlington...

A tornado watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for north central
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3650 9301 3649 9296 3612 9309 3615 9330
      3632 9330 3650 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0429Z 193DEG 16KT 3623 9321

46