Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Lubbock, TX

082 
WWUS54 KLUB 122015
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
315 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

TXC445-122030-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-170412T2030Z/
Terry TX-
315 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR TERRY COUNTY...

At 315 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles southwest of
Brownfield, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

Locations impacted include...
Brownfield and Wellman. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3298 10247 3303 10253 3315 10253 3332 10227
      3303 10211 3296 10240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 240DEG 27KT 3310 10241 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

JGD

176 
WWUS54 KLUB 122027
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
327 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

TXC445-122036-
/O.EXP.KLUB.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-170412T2030Z/
Terry TX-
327 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR TERRY COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
330 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3298 10247 3303 10253 3315 10253 3332 10227
      3303 10211 3296 10240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 240DEG 27KT 3314 10233 

$$

JGD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
220 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Upper level disturbance triggering convection across ERN NM and the
western part of our CWFA is slowly moving eastward.  In terms of
strength, this is not a particularly impressive system.  However,
other factors such as respectable PWAT, slow movement, and prospects
for multiple rounds of precipitation cause concern for heavy
rainfall and flooding potential.  Mean flow is largely parallel to
the surface based activity which, particularly as the day/evening
progresses, may lead to cell training concerns.  As such, as
previously mentioned in an update, have elected to go with an areal
flood watch.  At this point, the plurality of data suggest that the
risk of heavy rain may be lowest in our southeast.  That said, we
will continue to evaluate the trends over time and the expansion of
the watch may be required.

In terms of rainfall totals, the general setup, combined with model
guidance, suggest that widespread 1-2 inch totals will be possible
given the areal coverage and slow motion.  However, mesoscale and
banding influences could bring about swaths of 3-4 inch and possibly
higher totals.  This would generally result in low-end flooding
though it should be emphasized that just enough water in the right
place can greatly increase risk to life and property.  At present,
the flood watch is in effect until 12Z.  Model data suggests that
the rain may extend beyond this time though there is a tendency for
guidance to hang on to rain.  There are some hints in WV imagery
that a dry slot in the system could form and that obviously would
tend to finish the event sooner than later.

.LONG TERM...
Chances of convection will persist for the rest of the week into
early next week.

Solid low level moisture flow will continue through the weekend
following the passage of the current upper level system. Warming
temperatures from Friday through Sunday will lead to increased
instability each afternoon. However, it looks as though there will
be some capping to overcome each afternoon especially on Friday.
Friday afternoon looks to be the least likely for convection for
this weekend given a stronger cap this day. Large scale ascent
will be weak but subtle short waves in the flow aloft are
difficult for models to resolve this far out. We may have to rely
only on low level convergence along the dryline which is
typically more difficult to overcome a cap without large scale
ascent. Easter Sunday still stands the best chance at seeing more
widespread convection with a front moving close to the area but
there continues to be high uncertainty regarding the position of
the front.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ021>037-039>043.

&&

26/01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
214 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017

TXZ021>044-131915-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
214 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon mainly across the southern South Plains. Hail to the
size of golf balls and wind gusts to 60 mph will be the primary
threat. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 9pm this
evening.

Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand in
coverage this afternoon and especially overnight. This will bring
about an increased risk of areal flooding. A flood watch is in
effect through Thursday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The likelihood of hazardous weather is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report flooding and heavy rainfall
amounts.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
217 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     HAIL             10 W DENVER CITY        32.97N 103.00W
04/12/2017  E1.00 INCH       YOAKUM             TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700102

JWJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
225 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             W DENVER CITY           32.97N 102.83W
04/12/2017  E1.00 INCH       YOAKUM             TX   POST OFFICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700103

JWJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
238 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     HAIL             1 NW DENVER CITY        32.98N 102.84W
04/12/2017  E1.75 INCH       YOAKUM             TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700104

JWJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
248 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             8 E DENVER CITY         32.97N 102.69W
04/12/2017  E1.75 INCH       YOAKUM             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700105

JWJ