Special Weather Statement, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1155 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 301 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Cold front extends from a surface low over southeastern IA southwest
into the OK Panhandle.  A wind advisory is in effect across parts of
northeast and central MO and west central IL where very strong wind
gusts were occurring due to a tight surface pressure gradient and
momentum transfer to the surface underneath a strong southwest low
level jet.  Tornado watches have been issued for our forecast area
for the rest of the afternoon into the early evening hours.
Sufficient wind shear/instability exists for scattered supercells in
the warm sector capable of large hail, damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes late this afternoon and early this evening.  As an upper
level trough over the Plains approaches, the cold front will drop
southeastward through our forecast area tonight.  A greater coverage
of storms is expected along this front with the potential for more
severe storms late this evening and into the overnight hours.  The
primary threat with this second round of storms will be damaging
winds.  The threat of severe storms should end by early Wednesday
morning with lingering showers and a few storms across southeast MO
and southwest IL until late morning. Colder temperatures can be
expected tonight across northeast MO due to cold air advection
behind the cold front, then colder conditions for the entire area on
Wednesday with only a small diurnal rise in temperatures expected.
The sky should gradually clear out from southwest to northeast late
Tuesday morning and afternoon as a surface ridge builds
southeastward into our area behind the cold front, and as the upper
level trough begins to shift northeast of our area.

GKS

.LONG TERM...  (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

(Wednesday night - Next Monday night)

High pressure over the area begins to push east Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning ahead an approaching short wave trough. The
short wave trough will swing through NE MO/WC IL but will likely be
a dry passage. The dry weather will persist till late Sunday night
into Monday as another frontal boundary passes through the region
providing chances of showers and thunderstorms. The front departs
the area on Monday night and high pressure slides into the region
from the Northern Plains.

Temperatures will return to seasonal values on Thursday and Friday,
then once again go above seasonal norms for the reminder of the
forecast period.

Kelly
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Cold front moving southeast through taf sites, already south of
UIN as of 05z. Showers and storms to persist through about 11z
Wednesday before coming to an end. Otherwise, VFR cigs to briefly
dip down to MVFR behind frontal boundary, then bounce back up to
VFR by mid to late morning. Other main issue will be the winds.
Winds to veer to the west to northwest behind boundary and become
gusty. Winds will diminish by sunset Wednesday evening.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
Cold front moving southeast through region. Showers and storms to
persist through about 11z Wednesday before coming to an end.
Otherwise, VFR cigs to briefly dip down to MVFR behind frontal
boundary, then bounce back up to VFR by 16z Wednesday. Other main
issue will be the winds. Winds to veer to the west to northwest
behind boundary and become gusty, before diminishing by 03z
Thursday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
333 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-011200-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
333 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely across the region. The greatest
risk is across southeast and east-central Missouri northeastward
into southwest and central Illinois. Severe weather threats
include very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Several
strong, long track tornadoes are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a heightened fire danger for much of the area north of
Interstate 70 on Thursday afternoon due to low relative humidity
values, dry fuels, and gusty westerly winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon and tonight.

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
130 AM CST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 AM     HAIL             HAZELWOOD               38.78N  90.36W
03/01/2017  E0.25 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX1700194

GOSSELIN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
153 AM CST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 AM     HAIL             VILLA RIDGE             38.47N  90.88W
03/01/2017  E0.50 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX1700195

BRITT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
156 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

MOZ063-064-010830-
St. Louis MO-St. Louis City MO-
156 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ST. LOUIS COUNTY AND ST.
LOUIS CITY UNTIL 230 AM CST...

At 155 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Des Peres, moving east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Louis, Chesterfield, University City, Ballwin, Kirkwood, Maryland
Heights, Webster Groves, Ferguson, Manchester, Creve Coeur, Overland,
Clayton, Cahokia, Jennings, St. Ann, Crestwood, Bellefontaine
Neighbors, Town and Country, Ellisville and Berkeley.

This includes Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 272 and 277.

This also includes  Scott Joplin Historic Site.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for southwestern
Illinois...and east central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3877 9017 3875 9018 3872 9021 3871 9021
      3866 9018 3863 9018 3859 9019 3857 9023
      3853 9025 3850 9040 3850 9054 3865 9060
      3883 9013 3881 9012
TIME...MOT...LOC 0755Z 249DEG 38KT 3861 9045

Tilly

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
201 AM CST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNE SULLIVAN          38.23N  91.16W
03/01/2017  M51 MPH          FRANKLIN           MO   AWOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX1700196

MILLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
217 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

ILZ079-101-102-MOZ065-072>075-084-085-099-010900-
Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Monroe IL-Reynolds MO-Madison MO-
Washington MO-Jefferson MO-Iron MO-Crawford MO-St. Francois MO-
Ste. Genevieve MO-
217 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONROE...NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH
AND SOUTHERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...IRON COUNTY
IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI...STE. GENEVIEVE...NORTHERN REYNOLDS AND NORTHERN MADISON
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND ST. FRANCOIS COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI UNTIL 300
AM CST...

At 217 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near De Soto to 9 miles east of Salem. Movement
was east at 115 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Farmington, Festus, Waterloo, Bonne Terre, De Soto, Pevely, Desloge,
Crystal City, Ste. Genevieve, Freeburg, Fredericktown, Red Bud,
Herculaneum, Hillsboro, Potosi, Bismarck, Ironton, Leadwood, Barnhart
and Park Hills.

This includes Interstate 55 in Missouri between exits 143 and 180.

This also includes  Washington State Park, St. Joe State Park, St.
Francois State Park, Johnsons Shut-Ins State Park, Hawn State Park,
Fort Davidson Historic Site, Felix Valle House State Park, Elephant
Rocks State Park, Dillard Mill Historic Site, Taum Sauk Mountain
State Park, Missouri Mines Historic Site, and Gov. Dunklin's Grave
Historic Site.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for southwestern
Illinois...and southeastern and east central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3758 9131 3759 9131 3759 9116 3761 9115
      3770 9116 3770 9131 3773 9131 3838 9035
      3847 8971 3764 9014 3764 9015 3763 9015
      3749 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0817Z 272DEG 101KT 3818 9051 3763 9136

Glass