Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS St. Louis, MO

668 
WWUS53 KLSX 150028
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
728 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

ILC149-MOC173-150038-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0118.000000T0000Z-170615T0030Z/
Pike IL-Ralls MO-
728 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY IN WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEASTERN RALLS COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN
MISSOURI WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.  However small hail, gusty winds and heavy rain
are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Illinois...and northeastern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3976 9100 3975 9078 3946 9081 3953 9110
      3954 9110 3955 9116 3960 9118 3960 9120
      3957 9125 3960 9136 3969 9135 3969 9131
      3972 9135 3976 9135
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 286DEG 21KT 3963 9096 

$$

GKS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
332 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features an upper level trough
moving across portions of the northern Plains, with its trough axis
extending southeast into portions of MN/IA and northern MO. This
trough will swing through this evening into tonight, bringing
continued chances for showers/storms to the region.

A rather complex scenario unfolding for late this afternoon into the
overnight hours, with confidence below average in the forecast
details. One cluster of convection that affected the St. Louis metro
area earlier has pushed east into central IL, while another cluster
that affected northeast MO and western IL has also pushed into north-
central IL. These clusters have left outflow boundaries along which
renewed convection should continue to develop through this evening.
It appears the most focused areas of this activity will shift into
portions of central and east-central MO as we head through the
evening hours. Plenty of instability with MLCAPEs of 2500-3500+ J/kg
within a very moist atmosphere will lead to a continued threat of
wet microbursts within individual cells and cell clusters through
this evening despite fairly marginal deep-layer shear values (20-30
knots of 0-6km bulk shear).

Tonight's forecast will largely hinge on convective evolution this
afternoon/evening. Latest thinking is that convection this evening
will likely wane/shift to the southeast after 03Z or so.  However, a
broad low-level jet of 20-30 knots will focus into the region likely
after 06Z which could lead to renewed convection along any remnant
outflow boundaries. Where exactly this activity will focus and how
strong it will be is hard to pinpoint at this time, but think areas
along/south of I-70 will see the best potential at this renewed
development.

Activity will shift mainly south of the region on Thursday, as
surface ridging briefly takes hold.  Temperatures will still be
warm, however, with highs expected in the upper 80s to low 90s.

KD

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature westerly flow aloft.  This regime will continue through the
weekend, before northwesterly flow takes hold, shunting this
warm/unstable airmass to the southeast for the first part of next
week.

Active pattern will persist through this upcoming weekend as several
shortwave troughs move through the westerly flow aloft.  The first
will come Thursday night into Friday.  This system will bring
renewed shower/storm chances to the region, some of which could be
strong to severe depending on exact timing.  An additional wave will
move through Friday night into Saturday, with yet a third (and the
most significant wave) moving through Saturday night into Sunday.
Each of the waves will carry with them the threat of strong to
severe thunderstorms.

A cold front associated with the wave on Sunday will usher in a
cooler and drier airmass for Sunday afternoon into the first part of
next week. This cooler/drier regime will continue through midweek,
before additional showers/storms are possible by Tuesday along with
increasing temperatures/humidities.

KD

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

Convective trends will be the main focus of this TAF period.
Storms currently near the STL metro sites will move to the east
by 18Z. However, the thunderstorms near UIN will continue to build
southwest this afternoon which will result in another round of
thunderstorms later this afternoon into early this evening. Yet
another round of convection will be possible overnight, however
confidence is too low to warrant any mention at this time. Any
thunderstorm will be capable of gusty/variable winds and IFR
conditions. Outside of thunderstorms, conditions will be VFR with
SSW winds through the period.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
First round of storms has moved east, but expect additional
showers/thunderstorms to move into the terminal late this
afternoon into this evening. Any thunderstorm will be capable of
gusty/variable winds and IFR conditions. Outside of any
thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected with WSW winds.

KD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
338 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-151200-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
338 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through
tonight across much of the area. Damaging winds and large hail
are the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday
night as well as on Friday and Friday night across portions of
the area. Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon
and Saturday night, mainly across portions of northeast Missouri
and west-central Illinois.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may continue to be needed tonight. Spotters
are encouraged to report any type of severe weather to the
National Weather Service.

KD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
516 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     HAIL             PAYSON                  39.82N 91.24W
06/14/2017  E0.88 INCH       ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY SMALL LIMBS BLOWN DOWN, AROUND AN INCH
            IN DIAMETER AS WELL.

&&

MAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
537 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PAYSON                  39.82N 91.24W
06/14/2017                   ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AROUND ONE-HALF DOZEN LARGE TREE LIMBS
            SNAPPED OFF. LIMBS WERE AROUND SIX INCHES IN
            DIAMETER.

&&

LMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
543 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     HAIL             PERRY                   39.78N  90.75W
06/14/2017  M0.70 INCH       PIKE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL. SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX1700486

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
552 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     LIGHTNING        5 N QUINCY              40.00N 91.40W
06/14/2017                   ADAMS              IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LIGHTNING CAUSED A GARAGE FIRE AT 1131
            SPRING LAKE ROAD ON THE EXTREME NORTH SIDE
            OF QUINCY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
554 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     HAIL             EMDEN                   39.80N 91.86W
06/14/2017  E0.25 INCH       SHELBY             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
609 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BETHEL                  39.88N 92.02W
06/14/2017                   SHELBY             MO   PUBLIC

            VERY LARGE TREE LIMB BROKEN OFF OF A TREE IN
            TOWN.

&&

MAB