Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
308 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.Short Term (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

Overall weather pattern through Thursday night looks unsettled with
a warm and moist low-level air mass, and broad and weak upper
trofiness both remaining in place. A series of weak disturbances
swinging through the upper trof will support scattered thunderstorm
development this afternoon, but convection will be more isolated on
Thursday afternoon.

Ongoing storms are focused mainly along and just south of the Ohio
River in response to low-level moisture pooling. Expect a slow
progression to the south and east for the remainder of the
afternoon, with a weakening/dissipating trend through most of the
evening as instability is lost. Not much shear to support any
organization, but sub-severe hail and wind potential is already
being realized per Mesonet obs and spotter reports.

Storm chances will be in play again on Thursday with the upper trof
axis remaining just off to our west. A sharper shortwave diving into
the Upper Midwest may keep convection a bit more focused to our
north and west, so our POPs will actually run lower than today.
Solid chance POPs along/north of Interstate 64, tapering down to a
dry forecast south of the Cumberland Parkway. Pulse storm hazards
remain on the table.

Will again see precip tapering off with the loss of heating, but
chances will start to ramp up again before daybreak Friday as the
upper trof digs into the Great Lakes and drives a cold front into
the Ohio Valley.

.Long Term (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

Upper-level trough pushing through the Great Lakes will drive its
associated surface cold front through the Ohio Valley on Friday.
Moderate instability is expected, with at least marginal shear even
though the better dynamics will remain focused along and north of
the I-70 corridor. West of Interstate 65 the severe threat will be
limited as the front moves through before max heating, but the
better chances will be farther east. SPC Day 3 Outlook has a
Marginal risk east of I-65, but the Slight risk is not too far north
of the area, so stay tuned. Could see marginally severe wind and
hail with the stronger storms, but still expect the bigger story to
be locally heavy rainfall.

We'll dry out from NW-SE late Friday and Friday night as the upper
trof departs to our east and a Canadian sfc high builds in. Expect
dry and pleasantly mild conditions for most of the weekend, with
temps running several degrees below normal both day and night. Sat
morning will be the coolest, but not quite as cool as previously
advertised.

Next upper trof starts to dig into the Plains on Sunday, and could
eject another disturbance into the region by late Sunday or Sunday
night. Best moisture feed late Sunday night into Monday morning
supports high-chance/low-likely POPs for that time period, even
looking at it from 5 days out. Lower confidence for the remainder of
Monday as any boundary may become oriented parallel to the zonal
flow aloft, and therefore could get hung up over the Tennessee
Valley. Diurnal 20-30 POPs on Tue-Wed for south-central Kentucky
with a dry forecast to the north, and temps continuing to run
slightly below normal.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are being observed
in the region at this hour, with the greatest concentration of
precipitation along a boundary near the Ohio River. Expect activity
to drift eastward through the day. The showers/storms could reduce
cigs/vis to IFR/MVFR temporarily at some TAF sites. Should see
showers/storms begin to taper down near sunset as heat source
diminishes, though isolated storms can't be ruled out during the
overnight hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........DM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
317 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-031930-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
317 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 /217 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through this
evening, mainly in north central Kentucky. Some of the storms may
strong with torrential rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday and again on Friday as a
couple of weather systems move through the region. The best storm
chance will be on Friday as a cold front moves through the area.
Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday,
mainly east of the I-65 corridor. Damaging winds, torrential
rainfall, and large hail will be possible in the strongest storms.

Isolated to scattered storms will be possible again late Sunday as
another weather disturbance moves through the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required over the next few days.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

RAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
258 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

KYZ042-043-021915-
Bourbon-Nicholas-
258 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN BOURBON AND
NICHOLAS COUNTIES...

At 258 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Carlisle,
moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Carlisle, Millersburg, Jackstown, Blacks Crossroads, Ellisville,
Pleasant Valley, Headquarters, Moorefield, Myers and Barefoot.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3815 8403 3815 8421 3833 8423 3846 8410
      3844 8403 3844 8402 3843 8400 3842 8400
      3844 8399 3844 8397 3842 8395 3836 8391
      3835 8391 3826 8390
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 271DEG 18KT 3825 8411

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE MILLERSBURG        38.28N 84.10W
08/02/2017  M55 MPH          NICHOLAS           KY   MESONET

            KY MESONET STATION.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
323 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

KYZ040-041-048-021945-
Woodford-Fayette-Jessamine-
323 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL WOODFORD...NORTHERN
JESSAMINE AND WEST CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 323 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Dunbar High
School, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Nicholasville, Versailles, Meadowthorpe, Dunbar High
School, Thoroughbred Acres, Veterans Park, Cardinal Hill, Northland
and Highlands.

LAT...LON 3794 8474 3808 8472 3810 8444 3792 8448
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 283DEG 15KT 3800 8464

DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
338 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

KYZ041-042-049-022000-
Bourbon-Fayette-Clark-
338 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CLARK...
SOUTHWESTERN BOURBON AND EAST CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 337 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bryan Station,
moving east at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sidville, Constant Station, Renick, Stony Point, Avon, Judianne
Estates, Clintonville, Silver Lake, Fenwick and Old Pine Grove.

LAT...LON 3804 8439 3813 8435 3816 8413 3801 8420
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 276DEG 7KT 3809 8433

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
340 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 E VERSAILLES          38.04N 84.61W
08/02/2017  M47 MPH          FAYETTE            KY   ASOS

            ASOS STATION LEX, LEXINGTON BLUE GRASS
            AIRPORT.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
409 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

KYZ041-049-022045-
Fayette-Clark-
409 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CLARK AND SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE
COUNTIES...

At 408 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Winchester,
moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to near 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winchester, Goffs Corner, Chilesburg, Constant Station, Lyndale,
Tebbs, Judianne Estates, Locust Grove, Hunt and Flanagan.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3793 8398 3792 8398 3792 8399 3790 8399
      3788 8400 3789 8426 3792 8427 3790 8433
      3790 8443 3805 8436 3800 8401 3794 8397
      3793 8397
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 278DEG 23KT 3797 8429

ZT