Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
212 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

Scattered storms have really blossomed just south of the Ohio River.
Overall forecast trend has been in good shape, but did toggle over
to coverage wording instead of probability, to better convey the
nature of the convection.

Issued at 1205 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

Enhanced Cu starting to build just south of the Ohio River in
response to moisture pooling, which is also evident by a corridor of
dewpoints near 70F. Expect this to serve as the focus for shower
and thunderstorm development over the next few hrs, but with enough
of an eastward shift that the best chances by late afternoon will
run from near Bowling Green to Lexington. May also need to beef up
highs by a degree or two, but otherwise the going forecast is mostly
on track.

.Short Term (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

Early morning satellite and observations reveal partly to mostly
cloudy skies across the region.  Temperatures were generally in the
mid to upper 60s.  Area radars showed some remnant convection moving
through central IN.  In the near term, expect convection over
central IN to continue to move eastward.  This may bring a few
showers to the far northern sections of our forecast area this
morning.  Overnight lows should occur in the next few hours with
generally mid-upper 60s expected.

For Today, upper level pattern across the CONUS will remain in a
ridge west, trough east pattern with the axis of the trough located
just to the west of the Ohio Valley.  With the diurnal heating,
we'll see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across the
region during the afternoon and evening hours.  Overall coverage may
be similar to what we saw Tuesday afternoon/evening.  Deep layer
shear will be a little higher than Tuesday afternoon and some
increase in overall column moisture is expected.  Thus, any storm
that develops today will be capable of producing heavy rains, gusty
winds, and some hail.  Afternoon highs may be tempered a bit by
cloud cover, so we plan on going with highs in the 83-88 degree
range across much of the area.  Convection is expected to diminish
in coverage and intensity with the loss of heating this evening.
Overnight lows are expected to drop back in the mid-upper 60s.

Unsettled weather is expected to continue on Thursday as the upper
level trough axis remains just west of the region.  A continued
influx of moisture in the column will likely lead to slightly more
areal coverage Thursday afternoon and evening.  Stronger wind shear
looks to be confined to the north of the region as potent/compact
short wave trough moves from MN into the Great Lakes states.  So,
more widespread strong/severe weather looks to remain just northwest
of the region Thursday afternoon/evening.  Highs Thursday will be
near seasonal normals with highs in the 83-88 degree range.

.Long Term (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

Potent upper level short wave trough will move through the Great
Lakes region on Friday dragging its attendant surface frontal
boundary through the region.  Ahead of this front, moderate
instability is expected to develop during the afternoon hours as
dewpoints will be in the lower-mid 60s combining with steepening
lapse rates aloft.  Core of highest instability looks to reside
mainly east of the I-65 corridor.  Wind shear values still look
rather marginal with an increase in shear as one heads north toward
the I-70 corridor.  Main threats with the Friday afternoon/eve
storms look to be damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and perhaps some
marginally severe hail in the strongest storms.  The front is
expected to clear the area Friday evening with clearing skies by
early Saturday morning.  Highs Friday will warm into the upper 70s
to the lower 80s.  Cooler air will rapidly push into the region
Friday night.  Low temperatures will depend on how fast skies clear
out. Current thinking is that lows may dip into the lower to middle
50s across southern IN and portions of north-central KY, with mainly
upper 50s across the south.  If skies clear out quicker and we have
less wind, readings could be slightly cooler.

Dry weather is expected on Saturday with highs in the mid-upper 70s
in many areas. A run at 80 is possible down along the KY/TN border
region.  Lows Saturday night look to cool into the upper 50s to
around 60.

By Sunday, large baggy trough axis will remain entrenched across the
eastern US.  A secondary perturbation looks to move out of the
Plains and into the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon/eve which will
bring an increase in rain chances.  Temperatures may make a bit of a
recovery on Sunday with highs in the lower 80s.

Drier weather looks likely as we head into early next week as much
of the active weather looks to reside from the Tennessee Valley and
points south.  Temperatures will remain below normal for the period
with daytime highs in the lower-mid 80s with overnight lows in the
upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are being observed
in the region at this hour, with the greatest concentration of
precipitation along a boundary near the Ohio River. Expect activity
to drift eastward through the day. The showers/storms could reduce
cigs/vis to IFR/MVFR temporarily at some TAF sites. Should see
showers/storms begin to taper down near sunset as heat source
diminishes, though isolated storms can't be ruled out during the
overnight hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......DM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1139 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-031545-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
1139 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 /1039 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
outlook area this afternoon and evening. Some of the storms may
strong with torrential rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday and again on Friday as a
couple of weather systems move through the region. The best storm
chance will be on Friday as a cold front moves through the area.
Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday,
mainly east of the I-65 corridor. Damaging winds, torrential
rainfall, and large hail will be possible in the strongest storms.

Another chance of thunderstorms is expected late Sunday as another
weather disturbance moves through the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required over the next few days.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

MJ/RAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
143 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

KYZ029>031-034-035-038-021815-
Jefferson-Oldham-Shelby-Bullitt-Franklin-Spencer-
143 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SPENCER...
SOUTHEASTERN OLDHAM...SHELBY...JEFFERSON...NORTHEASTERN BULLITT AND
WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 142 PM EDT, thunderstorms with heavy rainfall were clustered
across Jefferson, Shelby, Oldham, Spencer and Bullitt counties. Some
areas within these counties are seeing multiple thunderstorms within
a short timeframe, and this could lead to ponding of water in
roadways and difficult driving conditions.

Gusty winds up to 40mph are also possible with these thunderstorms.

Locations impacted include...
Louisville, Frankfort, Jeffersontown, St. Matthews, Shelbyville,
Lyndon, Middletown, Douglass Hills, Hurstbourne and
Graymoor-Devondale.

LAT...LON 3811 8488 3813 8502 3811 8505 3802 8531
      3801 8565 3806 8575 3814 8584 3828 8572
      3835 8543 3835 8517 3834 8499 3835 8495
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 256DEG 14KT 3813 8548

DM

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