Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Louisville, KY

169 
WWUS53 KLMK 202329
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
729 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

INC077-KYC223-202339-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-170520T2330Z/
Jefferson IN-Trimble KY-
729 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND
NORTHWESTERN TRIMBLE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM EDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds
and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
south central Indiana...and central Kentucky.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

LAT...LON 3877 8521 3874 8526 3874 8533 3873 8533
      3871 8532 3871 8533 3866 8541 3873 8555
      3891 8541 3891 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 217DEG 30KT 3890 8528 

$$

SCHOETTMER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
549 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 545 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

Now seeing two main boundaries on the LVX radar, ready to collide
over the Louisville metro. AMDAR soundings still show a cap at 600
mb, but storms upstream have not been overly affected by this cap.
Once those boundaries collide, expect a new set of storms to
develop. With DCAPEs above 1000 J/kg, expect damaging winds to be
possible out of these new storms. That DCAPE looks reasonable given
how warm we got today and dewpoints having just dropped a little at
SDF. Another potential problem could be some minor flooding in the
Metro, especially should the storms slow down their eastward
progress.

Issued at 425 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

With CAPEs in the 2000-3000 J/kg range and some of these first good-
looking storms dropping down 45-55 mph wind gusts, have coordinated
a Severe Thunderstorm Watch with SPC through 3Z. Went with an
eastern edge of Jefferson county IN south to Monroe county KY, where
expect cells to take advantage of trigger of cold pool pushing east
lined up with that CAPE.  Farther east, more isolated stronger
storms are possible, but the more widespread threat is in the watch
box area.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

...Severe Storms & Flash Flooding Possible This Afternoon and
Evening...

Convection continues to fill in along a remnant MCS outflow boundary
from southern Indiana down through western Tennessee. Cumulus field
is expanding quickly in the unstable environment across central KY,
mainly west of I-65 just out ahead of the main convective band. The
second boundary of note is the surface warm front, which has been
making steady northward progress through southern Indiana. It
appears this boundary currently drapes back to the ESE through the
northern Bluegrass Region. Surface winds are SW in Harrison County,
KY, but easterly flow was noted at Covington. A few cells have
developed in the vicinity of this boundary, to the north of
Lexington.

South of the warm front, rain/storm chances will increase from west
to east through the afternoon and evening hours. With the upper low
spinning over the Central Plains, convection will move northeast
into central KY and southern Indiana. Moderate buoyancy has
developed, with 18z SPC meso page indicating 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE.
Effective bulk shear is marginal, with 30-35 kts along convective
boundary in western KY/TN. Stronger mid-level winds will remain off
to the northwest, closer to the upper low. Deep layer shear vectors
oriented roughly parallel to the boundary will support primarily
a linear mode, with damaging winds as the main threat. DCAPE
values exceeded 1000 J/kg across the region also support a
damaging wind threat. Isolated hail is possible, but freezing
levels are much higher today than yesterday, so it will take a
really strong updraft. The bigger risk is likely flash flooding,
particularly in Washington County, Indiana and Allen County,
Kentucky. Any additional heavy rainfall may quickly pose a flash
flood threat, so have a way to receive warnings this evening and
tonight.

Scattered storms early this evening will become more numerous late
this evening and overnight as axis of deeper moisture ahead of
surface cold front advects in. The surface cold front lingers way
back across central Missouri this afternoon and isn't forecast to
push through the area until Sunday afternoon. With convective
activity overnight likely lingering into Sunday morning, and with a
good deal more cloud cover, less instability is expected just ahead
of the cold frontal passage. Favorable vertical shear will lag the
surface cold front as well, so severe weather looks unlikely at this
time. But an uptick in convection looks likely east of I-65 during
the afternoon. Lows tonight will be quite warm, in the mid 60s to
around 70 degrees. Highs on Sunday will make it back into the mid
and upper 70s prior to frontal passage. Showers and storms will exit
to the east Sunday evening, with lows falling into the low to mid
50s by Monday morning.

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

The upcoming work week looks distinctly cooler than the last. Monday
looks very pleasant, with lower humidity, plenty of sun, and highs
in the low to mid 70s. Much drier air advects in as surface high
pressure builds through the region.

Clouds return Monday night, however, with rain chances returning on
Tuesday. The better chance for rain will be late Tuesday into
Tuesday night as another cold front approaches. This is another
surface low that develops in response to a deep upper trough
dropping southeast. This upper low will control the weather for the
midweek period, with cooler temperatures and a good deal of cloud
cover. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will likely be limited to the
mid and upper 60s, with nighttime lows in the upper 40s and 50s.

Weak upper ridging along with surface high pressure should result in
dry weather Thursday night through Friday night. Blended guidance
suggests highs back in the mid 70s to low 80s for Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

Have some boundaries west of a BWG/SDF line that should initiate new
storms this afternoon. As activity should be scattered over us, have
gone with vicinity wording starting around 20Z. The threat will
continue in that scattered range for several hours before becoming
more showery overnight. Winds will shift from south and
southeasterly to southwesterly late in the period, with a period of
fuel-alternate MVFR possible Sunday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Update...RJS
Short Term...EBW
Long Term...EBW
Aviation...RJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
608 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

INZ076-083-084-089-KYZ023-026-033>037-039>043-046>049-054>057-061-
065>067-070-077-078-081-082-212215-
Orange-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Hancock-Ohio-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott-Harrison-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Washington-
Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Taylor-
Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Jasper, English, Tell City,
Lewisport, Hawesville, Hartford, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort,
Georgetown, Cynthiana, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris,
Carlisle, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Campbellsville,
Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
608 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 /508 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight as a cold
front approaches. Any severe storm could produce heavy rainfall and
damaging winds. There is a low risk for an isolated tornado and
isolated large hail. Ongoing localized flooding issues could be
worsened with additional heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorm chances will continue through Sunday afternoon before
the cold front passes through the area. A strong storm with small
hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall is possible mainly east
of I-65.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible Tuesday
and Wednesday as another cold front moves through the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to continue reporting any damaging winds,
flooding, or hail today.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

INZ077>079-090>092-KYZ024-025-027>032-038-045-053-062>064-071>076-
212215-
Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-Breckinridge-Meade-
Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Spencer-Nelson-Larue-Edmonson-
Hart-Green-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-
Including the cities of Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Corydon,
New Albany, Jeffersonville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, Taylorsville, Bardstown, Hodgenville, Brownsville,
Horse Cave, Greensburg, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, and Edmonton
608 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 /508 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight as a cold
front approaches. Any severe storm could produce heavy rainfall and
damaging winds. There is a low risk for an isolated tornado and
isolated large hail. Ongoing localized flooding issues could be
worsened with additional heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorm chances will continue through Sunday afternoon before
the cold front passes through the area. A strong storm with small
hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall is possible mainly east
of I-65.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible Tuesday
and Wednesday as another cold front moves through the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to continue reporting any damaging winds,
flooding, or hail today.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

EBW/RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
627 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

INZ091-092-KYZ028>031-038-045-202315-
Floyd-Clark-Jefferson-Oldham-Bullitt-Spencer-Nelson-Hardin-
627 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

...GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CLARK...SOUTHEASTERN
FLOYD...SOUTHWESTERN SPENCER...SOUTHWESTERN OLDHAM...NORTHWESTERN
NELSON...JEFFERSON...NORTHEASTERN HARDIN AND BULLITT COUNTIES...

At 625 PM EDT, a shower was located over Newburg, moving east at 30
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this shower. These winds
are forecast to generate a new set of storms somewhere around the I-
65 corridor, which may allow for additional severe thunderstorm
development over the next hour. Stay tuned for updates.

LAT...LON 3847 8551 3777 8537 3775 8601 3809 8591
      3829 8586
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 253DEG 24KT 3817 8569

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
630 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROUNDHILL               37.24N 86.45W
05/20/2017                   BUTLER             KY   PUBLIC

            TWITTER PICTURE OF A LARGE LIMB BLOWN IN TO
            THE REAR WINDOW OF A CAR.

&&

MRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
634 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

KYZ028-045-053-202300-
Nelson-Hardin-Larue-
634 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NELSON...
LARUE AND SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTIES...

At 633 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Elizabethtown to 9
miles southwest of Hodgenville. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Elizabethtown, Hodgenville, Radcliff, New Haven, Upton, Sonora,
Lyons, Boundary Oak, Howardstown and Botland.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Louisville.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
central Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3776 8597 3779 8532 3778 8534 3778 8536
      3776 8535 3776 8536 3777 8537 3774 8537
      3774 8539 3768 8545 3756 8552 3755 8551
      3744 8588 3744 8590
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 224DEG 41KT 3777 8593 3747 8586

EBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
642 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SELLERSBURG             38.40N 85.75W
05/20/2017                   CLARK              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE BLOCKING A ROADWAY.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             3 N CHARLESTOWN         38.49N 85.67W
05/20/2017  M1.25 INCH       CLARK              IN   COCORAHS

            AVERAGE SIZE NICKELS, BUT HAD MAX SIZE OF
            HALF-DOLLARS.

&&

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
655 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

INZ078-079-KYZ032-202330-
Jefferson-Scott-Trimble-
655 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT JEFFERSON...EAST CENTRAL SCOTT
AND NORTHWESTERN TRIMBLE COUNTIES...

At 655 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest of
Madison, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Hanover, Saluda, Smyrna, Milton, Brooksburg, Canaan, North
Madison, Manville and Trout.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3869 8520 3870 8522 3873 8525 3874 8527
      3874 8533 3872 8532 3866 8527 3859 8546
      3859 8550 3861 8550 3861 8555 3863 8563
      3891 8539 3891 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 222DEG 34KT 3864 8548

SCHOETTMER