Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Louisville, KY

575 
WGUS73 KLMK 290655
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
255 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

INC019-043-061-175-KYC103-185-223-290900-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170429T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harrison IN-Clark IN-Floyd IN-Washington IN-Oldham KY-Trimble KY-
Henry KY-
255 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM EDT FOR
NORTHERN HARRISON...CLARK...FLOYD...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...
OLDHAM...SOUTHERN TRIMBLE AND HENRY COUNTIES...

At 252 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Doppler radar estimates that 3 to 4 
inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing across the 
warning area at this time.

Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue to train across the 
same area for the next several hours.  An additional 1 to as much as 
2 inches of rainfall is expected.  This excessive rainfall will 
result in runoff that will lead to additional flash flooding.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Jeffersonville, New Albany, La Grange, Prospect, New Castle, Bedford,
New Providence Town, Clarksville, Pendleton and Charlestown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3860 8508 3856 8506 3857 8504 3855 8500
      3851 8503 3851 8498 3849 8499 3847 8495
      3843 8496 3844 8495 3846 8492 3845 8491
      3844 8493 3842 8488 3838 8490 3833 8554
      3838 8564 3831 8567 3826 8626 3856 8592

$$

MJ

852 
WGUS73 KLMK 290857
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
457 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

INC019-043-061-175-KYC103-185-223-290904-
/O.EXP.KLMK.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170429T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harrison IN-Clark IN-Floyd IN-Washington IN-Oldham KY-Trimble KY-
Henry KY-
457 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN HARRISON...CLARK...FLOYD...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...OLDHAM...SOUTHERN TRIMBLE AND HENRY
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 500 AM EDT...

While the threat of heavy rainfall has ended across the warned area. 
Excessive runoff from overnight rains will result in continued 
flooding across the region this morning.  For that reason, an areal 
Flood Warning has been issued to replace this Flash Flood Warning. 
The areal Flood warning will remain in effect until 1045 AM EDT.

LAT...LON 3860 8508 3856 8506 3857 8504 3855 8500
      3851 8503 3851 8498 3849 8499 3847 8495
      3843 8496 3844 8495 3846 8492 3845 8491
      3844 8493 3842 8488 3838 8490 3833 8554
      3838 8564 3831 8567 3826 8626 3856 8592

$$

MJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1103 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

The threat for severe weather continues this evening in the Tornado
Watch area. Storms have developed right along the warm front
boundary in southern IN. These storms have shown some deep rotation
and are expected to continue to do so over the next few hours as the
track northeast along the boundary. The tornado threat is the
highest in this location. Further to the south, a few cells have
popped up along the Ohio River. These could potentially become
strong to severe as well, though they are struggling a bit more.

Aside from the severe potential, the flooding threat is increasing.
Training storms over Dubois county have already produced 2-3 inches
of rain and more storms continue to develop along the boundary. The
main question for tonight will be how far south this line of storms
will sag. Much of the guidance suggests it will stay along and north
of the Ohio River, though a few of the high res models have it
sinking further south. Will lean towards the former solution for
now. Given that, pops were updated to decrease them across south
central KY and increase them across southern IN. Also raised low
temps a bit as southerly flow should keep the region on the warm
side. The updated forecast is already out.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...Severe Storms Forecast for Late this Afternoon through Tonight...

Have a nice clear slot over southern KY early this afternoon,
allowing for a nice pocket of instability for the warm front that's
lifting quickly northward now to take advantage of. Expect storms to
start developing in the next hour or two with an increase in
coverage especially along the front this evening. Forecast soundings
continue to increase confidence in supercells developing in this
environment, with large hail and damaging winds and a tornado
threat, especially along the warm front. This evening, NCAR ensemble
0-3 km storm relative helicity was over 300 m2/s2 with 0-1 km shear
vectors around 40 knots, indicative of good low-level rotation
potential. These values would satisfy a local study on potential for
tornadoes developing within supercells.

Tonight, we could see a brief break in precip before they redevelop
again as a low-level jet focuses convergence somewhere over or just
north of the Ohio River. This new development and its potential
persistence was the main reason a Flash Flood Watch was issued
earlier today. Precipitable waters in the 1.7-2 inch range will make
for very heavy rains coming out of these storms, so rainfall totals
around 3 inches are possible, if not a little more, over the watch
area by this time tomorrow.

By late morning Saturday, we should see those rains taper off,
especially as the warm frontal boundary looks to lift a little
farther north. By afternoon, we should get another pool of surface-
based CAPE. Near record temperatures are forecast for highs, and
even warm lows (see Climate section below). A cap should be in place
tomorrow though, that will keep most from taking advantage of it.
The GFS and WRF-ARW are the only models showing any QPF in our area.
Some of the better performing models for rain chances the last few
months would argue for a narrow stripe of isolated to scattered
storms across our northern counties in Indiana (i.e., Dubois to
Jefferson) and a secondary isolated area over Lake Cumberland.

.Long Term...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...Another Round of Heavy Rain and Some Severe Potential Late
Sunday...

After another warmer morning Sunday, again potential breaking warm
min records, we should be dry for most of the day. Models are in
pretty good agreement on this scenario, bringing in storms ahead of
a north/south-oriented cold front Sunday night. Given another near
record warm day, these storms should have plenty of available
instability to allow for strong to severe potential at least in the
evening hours, perhaps late into the overnight as well. Precipitable
water levels once again will surge into the 1.7-2 inch range, so
another round of flash flooding is possible.

Monday looks like a chillier day, as a large upper low moves into
the Great Lakes. We'll have southwest winds, but much lower low-
level thicknesses, to bring temperatures to below normal for highs.
The cooler weather likely will persist most of the week, as that
upper low slowly heads northeast and then gets replaced by another
meridional trough for late week. We may see some cool precip with
this transition from mid to late week. Did not make any changes to
the blended forecast for now.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z Issuance)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Convective activity has been held in check by a capping inversion,
so will continue to mention SHRA activity with a few thunderstorms
in the VC of SDF/BWG through the evening hours. Outside of any T-
storms, VFR will prevail with a steady S wind.

Biggest question for the overnight will be whether a line of
convection that sets up north of the Ohio River will have enough of
a cold pool push to make it back toward SDF. Warm frontal boundary
is already north of the area so storms would have to get organized
pretty well to push back into the terminal. Given good support of
this scenario occurring from hi-res models, will introduce prevailing
t-storm mention at SDF after 07Z, where a few hour period of heavy
rain would be possible. Overall confidence is low, but it could have
an impact if it occurs.

Either way, conditions should improve around or just after sunrise
with a steady S wind and Sct-Bkn clouds around 4 K feet.

Elsewhere at BWG/LEX, staying more optimistic that these sites will
see little more than scattered shower and t-storm activity through
the evening, before dry conditions take hold overnight. LEX could be
close enough to the boundary in the pre-dawn hours to warrant VCTS
mention, but will otherwise be dry by mid to late morning on
Saturday.

&&

.Hydrology...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Heavy rain is expected over the weekend over much of the middle
Ohio Valley. Between two to five inches of rain are expected along
the Ohio River over the next 72 hours, with the heavier amounts in
the west. This will lead to quick rises on all stream and rivers in
the area with minor flooding possibily in the Green, Rough, and
Muscatatuck basins. In addition, heavy rain tonight could lead
to flash flooding in parts of southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky. If you live in a flood prone area, watch water levels
closely this weekend.

&&

.Climate...
Issued at 830 AM EST Fri Apr 28 2017

Temperature and rainfall records for the weekend:

            4/29 Warm L   4/29 Record H   4/30 Warm L  4/30 Record H
Louisville   67 (1951)      89 (1899)      70 (1899)    91 (1894)
Lexington    67 (1899)      86 (1899)      70 (1899)    91 (1942)
Bowling G.   67 (1899)      91 (1894)      68 (1899)    92 (1942*)
Frankfort    63 (1899)      89 (1914)      66 (1910)    91 (1942)

            4/29 Rainfall 4/30 Rainfall
Louisville   2.02" (1927)   2.37" (1983)
Lexington    1.31" (2014)   3.21" (1909)
Bowling G.   2.40" (1912)   3.00" (1911)
Frankfort    2.20" (2002)   2.62" (1909)

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     KYZ023>025-029>038.

&&

Update...EER
Short Term...RJS
Long Term...RJS
Aviation...BJS
Hydrology...CMC
Climate...RJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
941 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

KYZ026-027-039>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-300145-
Ohio-Grayson-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-
Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-
Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-
Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Hartford, Leitchfield, Lawrenceburg,
Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield,
Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon,
Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
941 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 /841 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and become numerous
overnight along a warm front. Any storm that develops will have the
potential to produce locally heavy rainfall along with lightning and
gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional thunderstorms are forecast through the weekend. The
environment again could support strong to severe thunderstorms.
Right now the best time frames for thunderstorm activity looks to be
Sunday late afternoon through Sunday night. The main threats with
any severe storms this weekend with be damaging winds and hail. Also
repeated rounds of storms with high rainfall rates may create some
flooding issues.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report wind, hail of any size, and instances
of flooding today through the weekend.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>025-029>034-038-300145-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-
Shelby-Spencer-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Shepherdsville, Louisville,
La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville,
and Taylorsville
941 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 /841 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 171 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ SATURDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Storms will become more widespread through the overnight hours.
Through 2am EDT any storm that develops will have the potential to
become severe. After 2am the situation will transition to more of a
flooding threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional thunderstorms are forecast through the weekend. The
environment again could support strong to severe thunderstorms.
Right now the best time frames for thunderstorm activity looks to be
Sunday late afternoon through Sunday night. The main threats with
any severe storms this weekend with be damaging winds and hail. Also
repeated rounds of storms with high rainfall rates may create some
flooding i

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report wind, hail of any size, and instances
of flooding today through the weekend.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

KYZ028-300145-
Hardin-
Including the city of Elizabethtown
941 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...TORNADO WATCH 171 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Storms will become more widespread through the overnight hours.
Through 2am EDT any storm that develops will have the potential to
become severe. After 2am the situation will transition to more of a
flooding threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional thunderstorms are forecast through the weekend. The
environment again could support strong to severe thunderstorms.
Right now the best time frames for thunderstorm activity looks to be
Sunday late afternoon through Sunday night. The main threats with
any severe storms this weekend with be damaging winds and hail. Also
repeated rounds of storms with high rainfall rates may create some
flooding issues.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report wind, hail of any size, and instances
of flooding today through the weekend.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

KYZ035>037-300145-
Franklin-Scott-Harrison-
Including the cities of Frankfort, Georgetown, and Cynthiana
941 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and become numerous
overnight along a warm front. Any storm that develops will have the
potential to produce locally heavy rainfall along with lightning and
gusty winds.

Areas that receive repeated storms with high rainfall rates may
develop flooding issues tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional thunderstorms are forecast through the weekend. The
environment again could support strong to severe thunderstorms.
Right now the best time frames for thunderstorm activity looks to be
Sunday late afternoon through Sunday night. The main threats with
any severe storms this weekend with be damaging winds and hail. Also
repeated rounds of storms with high rainfall rates may create some
flooding i

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report wind, hail of any size, and instances
of flooding today through the weekend.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1236 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     HAIL             GREENVILLE              38.38N 85.99W
04/29/2017  E1.50 INCH       FLOYD              IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1237 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 AM     HAIL             GEORGETOWN              38.30N 85.97W
04/29/2017  E0.88 INCH       FLOYD              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1243 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1154 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW CHARLESTOWN       38.43N 85.71W
04/28/2017                   CLARK              IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN ALONG 403 IN CHARLESTOWN.

&&

KDW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1244 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1204 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE GOSHEN             38.40N 85.58W
04/29/2017                   OLDHAM             KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN GOSHEN.

&&

KDW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1245 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1156 PM     HAIL             2 ESE DEPAUW            38.33N 86.19W
04/28/2017  E0.25 INCH       HARRISON           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN RAMSEY AND DEPAUW.
            CORRECTED TIME.

&&

KDW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1253 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1252 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N RICEVILLE           38.33N 86.66W
04/29/2017                   CRAWFORD           IN   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER IS ACROSS STATE ROAD 64 JUST EAST OF
            RICEVILLE ROAD.

&&

KDW