Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
225 PM PDT Sat May 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect much
of northern and central Nevada through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday. Initial shower development
began west of Winnemucca and east of the Rubies with a drier area
in between. By noon, radar coverage indicated that the best
storms were over Elko County with double digit VILS popping up
in a storm cell south of Jackpot. By 2 pm, widespread coverage of
mediocre storms developed north of highway 50 and east of
Winnemucca. Received several reports of downburst winds with
little precipitation. Wind gusts are generally meeting Wind
Advisory criteria across central Nevada with over 50 mph on Warm
Springs Summit in Nye County being the earliest significant
report. Model agreement is a little better than previous model
runs. However the duration of the convective potential in northern
Nevada will be in question as the low possibly moves as far south
as the Baja peninsula before ejecting northeast.

Tonight through Sunday night. Winds will be diminishing this
evening across central Nevada. Low pressure off the central
California coast will move inland over southern California. This
will be the best opportunity for a fresh fetch of moisture to get
infused into the LKN CWFA. Cape values are pinging off the 1200
J/Kg mark through early this evening along a stretch of real
estate from east of Winnemucca through the Owyhee desert area of
Elko County, much the same corridor as yesterday's severe storms.
Cape values are showing similar values on Sunday afternoon and
evening with possibly a slight easterly shift of the expected
severe storm track. Highs will be in the 60s. Lows will range from
the mid 30s to the mid 40s.

Monday through Tuesday. Low pressure will continue digging south,
entering the Baja region. This will focus the best convection
potential on areas south of the highway 50 convergence zone.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Saturday Night

As the closed low moves off into Arizona/New Mexico on Tuesday
night, there may be a few wrap-around showers in the southeastern
portion of our CWA through Wednesday, but otherwise the
atmosphere will be drying out as a ridge builds into the Great
Basin. It will be short-lived, however, as southwest flow starts
to build into western Nevada late Wednesday as another large scale
low will affect the Pacific NW and begins to push the ridge
eastward through Thursday.

Long term models are beginning to position the track of the next
low further north. At this time it appears that Nevada would be on
the southern end of any moisture and showers would be limited to
very northern counties. Trimmed back pops slightly northward but
not a great deal keeping in mind this is nearly a week away.

High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 30s
and 40s. The warmest days should be Wednesday and Thursday as the
ridging will dominate during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring this
afternoon primarily across northern Nevada will decrease this
evening, diminishing around sunset. Gusty downburst
winds gusting near 45 kts are possible in the vicinity of
thunderstorms as well as small hail and lightning.

Strong south winds at KELY and KTPH gusting to 40-45 kts will begin to
decrease around 02Z.

Moisture from the south will begin to bring showers to KTPH around
06Z and KELY Sunday morning around 17Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...River and creek levels will likely rise as there is
the potential for increased rainfall during the weekend and early
next week as an active weather pattern sets up. The location of
the system and attendant moisture will play a role on where the
rain will occur. This will need to be watched carefully as in many
locations, the ground still holds a lot of water and runoff into
fast running creeks and streams is likely.

Here are the locations where flood warnings are currently in
effect:

Humboldt River - Comus, near Winnemucca: Minor to moderate
flooding continues.

Bruneau River - near Rowland: moderate flooding.

The following rivers are running high, but are below flood stage
at this time:

Wildhorse Dam - at Wildhorse

Owyhee River - near Mountain City

Jarbidge River - below Jarbidge

Martin Creek - near Paradise Valley

Mary's River - near Deeth

Humboldt River - Battle Mountain: higher than normal flows
continue. The river may rise into minor flood stage as
temperatures warm and precip chances increase.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for South Central Elko
County-Southeastern Elko County.

Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Northeastern Nye
County-Northwestern Nye County-Southern Lander County and
Southern Eureka County-White Pine County.

&&

92/90/90

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
529 PM PDT SAT MAY 6 2017

NVZ036-037-070130-
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County NV-
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County NV-
529 PM PDT SAT MAY 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HUMBOLDT AND
NORTHEASTERN LANDER COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM PDT...

At 527 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 23
miles northwest of Grass Valley, moving north at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Interstate 80, State Route 305, Battle Mountain and Phoenix Mine.

LAT...LON 4004 11680 3999 11703 4048 11732 4064 11724
      4065 11702 4073 11701 4076 11686
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 164DEG 32KT 4009 11695

bb

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