Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
647 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.AVIATION...
Storms this evening continue to effect TAF locations this activity
is expected to continue through the next several hours. Storms are
moving to the northeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 506 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

UPDATE...
As coordination with SPC, have areal extended the Tornado Watch 98
into Rapides Parish, as convection may enter that area a little
sooner.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

.SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...
.HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE POTENTIAL AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...

SYNOPSIS...
Will be brief as severe weather ongoing in the forecast area.
Tornado Watch is in effect until 9 pm for a majority of the
western portion of the forecast area. Enhanced Risk for Severe
Storms into the evening and overnight period.

Rua

DISCUSSION...
A vigorous storm system will be moving across the southern
plains tonight into early Thursday. Jet streak and strong positive
vorticity will be rounding the upper level system and across the
forecast for the evening into the overnight hours. Meanwhile,
strong low level jet and abundant gulf moisture will be in place.
Therefore, supercell clusters of thunderstorms will continue for
the remainder of the afternoon, possibly consolidating into a
squall line later this evening and overnight. All forms of severe
weather will be possible. Strong wind damage and large hail, with
a few tornadoes, as cells should have good rotation from the
elevated shear.

Dry slot should move in during the overnight hours quickly
tapering off activity by the morning hours.

A couple of fair weather days, until the next storm system
organizes and moves through the region. Looks like main event will
be late Sunday into early Monday, with heavy rainfall and severe
weather potential. However, GFS does show a lead short wave moving
across late Saturday and Saturday Night, that the ECMWF does not
pick up on. At this point will just have chance pops for that time
period before likely pops on late Sunday into Sunday Night.

Rua

MARINE...
Strong south winds will begin to decrease later tonight as the low
pressure system begins to depart the region and pressure gradient
relaxes.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  77  54  84 /  70  30  10   0
LCH  65  77  58  82 /  80  20  10   0
LFT  71  80  58  85 /  70  50  10   0
BPT  62  79  58  84 /  70  20  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

AVIATION...19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
618 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
301130-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
618 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight to enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms today
and tonight. While uncertainty exists with the exact timing and
evolution, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to
develop or spread into East Texas this afternoon, with activity
continuing to spread east into Louisiana tonight. All modes of
severe weather are possible, which includes tornadoes, damaging
winds, and large hail.

South winds are forecast to increase and become gusty this
afternoon across areas generally along and south of I-10 and over
parts of East Central Louisiana. A wind Advisory is in effect for
these areas from noon through 6 pm, and may need to be extended
further in time for areas near the coast.

Another upper level storm system will affect the region Saturday
night through Sunday night. Considerable variability is present
in model guidance at this time, but it appears that at least some
severe weather and/or locally heavy rainfall risk will accompany
this system as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are expected to continue over East Central and
South Central Louisiana early Thursday morning before pushing
across the Atchafalaya River as a cold front sweeps through the
area. Severe weather will continue to be possible with this
activity.

Another upper level storm system will affect the region Saturday
night through Sunday night. Considerable variability is present
in model guidance at this time, but it appears that at least some
severe weather and/or locally heavy rainfall risk will accompany
this system as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotter activation may be needed later today and tonight.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-301130-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
618 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Gusty south winds and rough seas are expected to continue today,
and small craft advisories are in effect today and into this
evening. Winds are expected to gradually subside from west to east
tonight.  In addition, an upper level storm system crossing the
region will bring a risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and tonight. All modes of severe weather will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are expected to continue over the Gulf waters into
Thursday morning, pushing east of the area by afternoon as a cold
front sweeps through the area. Severe weather will continue to be
possible with this activity.

Another upper level storm system will affect the region Saturday
night through Monday. Considerable variability is present in
model guidance at this time, but it appears that at least some
severe weather and/or locally heavy rainfall risk will accompany
this system as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

13

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