Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
633 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

.AVIATION...
Ongoing thunderstorms will continue to develop and expand in
coverage throughout the morning. Thunderstorms are expected to
become prevailing at most of the area TAF sites by this
afternoon. A squall line with strong winds...heavy rainfall...and
possibly hail is expected to move from NW to SE across the region
late this afternoon into this evening. The squall line is forecast
to clear AEX/BPT/LCH by 06Z tonight and LFT/ARA by 09Z. Behind the
front winds will shift to the NW and remain elevated through the
night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 434 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Rapid changes with deteriorating weather conditions expected
today. Severe thunderstorms possible, heavy rains leading to
additional flooding, strong south to southeast winds inland and
offshore with small craft advisories in effect, along with minor
tidal coastal flooding possible.

First wave of convection expected to ramp up significantly across
Southeast Texas around daybreak, with significant moisture and
lift allowing thunderstorms to spread across the remainder of the
region later this morning and afternoon. Reasoning: Significant
mid/upper level shortwave moving through the southern U.S. will
allow for surface low pressure to move East Texas and Louisiana
followed by a strong cold front for early May. The frontal passage
will likely result in a significant squall line either just ahead
or along the frontal passage later this evening, exiting from
northwest to southeast late this evening into early Thursday
morning. A quick summary of the hazards expected today include:

Severe weather threat:
SPC has upgraded entire area to an Enhanced Risk, with large hail
possible and damaging winds the primary severe weather threat.

Flash Flood Watch:
Moderate risk of excessive rainfall today with rain amounts of 3
to 6 inches are expected across Southern Louisiana, with isolated
amounts exceeding 8 inches possible. Elsewhere slight risk of
excessive rainfall with rain amounts of 2 to 3 inches are expected
with isolated amounts exceeding 5 inches possible across
Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana.

Coastal Flood Advisory:
South to southeasterly winds will continue strengthening today
ahead of the next cold front this evening and early Thursday
morning. The increased onshore flow will lead to elevated tides of
1.5 to 2.0 feet above predicted levels this afternoon and evening.
This will result in tidal levels between 3.3 - 3.8 feet MLLW later
this afternoon and evening.

Once the front passes, the precipitation will come to an end, with
cooler than normal temperatures expected though Saturday. A
warming trend with no precipitation is expected Sunday through
Tuesday.

DML

MARINE...
South to southeasterly winds will continue strengthening today
ahead of the next cold front this evening and early Thursday
morning. The increased onshore flow will lead to elevated tides
of 1.5 to 2.0 feet above predicted levels this afternoon and
evening. Abundant moisture and lift along and ahead of the front
will bring increasing shower and thunderstorms today, with the
strongest storms expected with the frontal passage later this
evening into Thursday morning. Moderate to strong offshore flow is
expected Thursday through early Friday as high pressure builds
over the region. For the increased winds today and post frontal
overnight, issued Small Craft Advisories for all marine zones,
tapering off Thursday evening for the lakes/bays into the
overnight hours Friday morning for the remaining zones.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  54  71  51 / 100 100  10   0
LCH  79  58  74  54 / 100 100  10   0
LFT  80  59  74  54 / 100 100  10   0
BPT  81  57  75  54 / 100 100  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Thursday
     morning for LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT
     Thursday for LAZ073-074.

     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Thursday for
     LAZ044-045-052>055-073-074.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ028-029-031>033-041>043.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT
     Thursday for LAZ052>054.

TX...Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Thursday
     morning for TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT
     Thursday for TXZ215-216.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ215-216.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ470-472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from Thursday evening through
     Friday morning for GMZ470-472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ430-
     432-435.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution through Thursday morning for GMZ430-
     432-435.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ450-452-455.

&&

AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
515 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
041100-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
515 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Rapid changes with deteriorating weather conditions expected
today. The Storm Prediction Center has entire area with an Enhanced
Risk of severe thunderstorms, with large hail possible and
damaging winds the primary severe weather threat.

Moderate risk of excessive rainfall today with rain amounts of 3
to 6 inches are expected across Southern Louisiana, with isolated
amounts exceeding 8 inches possible. Elsewhere slight risk of
excessive rainfall with rain amounts of 2 to 3 inches are expected
with isolated amounts exceeding 5 inches possible across
Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana.

Elevated south to southeasterly winds will lead to elevated tides
of 1.5 to 2.0 feet above predicted levels this afternoon and
evening. This will result in tidal levels between 3.3 - 3.8 feet
MLLW later this afternoon and evening along coastal Southern
Louisiana and Southeast Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
Precipitation expected to end once the cold front passes, with
cooler than normal temperatures expected though Saturday. A
warming trend with no precipitation is expected Sunday through
Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation likely needed later this morning through the
evening hours.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-041100-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
515 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
South to southeasterly winds will continue strengthening today
ahead of the next cold front this evening and early Thursday
morning. Moderate to strong offshore flow is expected behind the
cold front. Small craft advisories are in effect for all marine
zones.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
Moderate to strong offshore flow will continue behind the cold
front on Thursday, subsiding on Friday. Small craft advisories
will continue into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation likely needed later this morning through the
evening hours.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
620 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-031215-
Orange TX-Jefferson TX-Hardin TX-Southern Newton TX-
Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-Southern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
620 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON...
TYLER...SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON...HARDIN...NORTHWESTERN ORANGE AND
SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CDT...

At 620 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Thicket to near Rose City. Movement was
northeast at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, Lumberton, Vidor, Silsbee, Woodville, Kirbyville, Kountze,
Colmesneil, Chester, Evadale, Warren, Town Bluff, Thicket, Saratoga,
Call, Fred, Wildwood, Mauriceville, Buna and Bevil Oaks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9454 3102 9465 3057 9372 3054 9374
      3052 9371 3044 9370 3039 9376 3032 9375
      3001 9407 3029 9466 3049 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1120Z 218DEG 34KT 3038 9468 3010 9410

Landreneau

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
630 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

LAZ041-042-073-074-031245-
West Cameron LA-Calcasieu LA-Jefferson Davis LA-East Cameron LA-
630 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CAMERON...SOUTHERN
JEFFERSON DAVIS AND SOUTHEASTERN CALCASIEU PARISHES UNTIL 745 AM
CDT...

At 630 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Holly Beach to 7 miles southwest of Grand
Chenier. Movement was north at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Charles, Sulphur, Jennings, Cameron, Westlake, Welsh, Iowa, Lake
Arthur, Grand Lake, Hayes, Moss Bluff, Lacassine National Wildlife
Refuge, Lake Charles Regional Airport, Grand Chenier, Hacketts
Corner, Lebleu Settlement, Holly Beach, Lowry, Sweet Lake and
Carlyss.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2972 9299 2977 9319 2978 9328 2976 9334
      2979 9332 2980 9334 2976 9335 2977 9351
      3038 9345 3022 9262 3007 9267 3004 9272
      3004 9268 2964 9279
TIME...MOT...LOC 1130Z 186DEG 31KT 2981 9343 2967 9302

Landreneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
701 AM CDT WED MAY 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 AM     HAIL             WARREN                  30.61N 94.41W
05/03/2017  E1.75 INCH       TYLER              TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN WARREN.

&&

TWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
710 AM CDT WED MAY 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 AM     HAIL             ENE WILDWOOD            30.52N 94.44W
05/03/2017  E1.00 INCH       HARDIN             TX   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURE OF APPROXIMATELY QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

STW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
715 AM CDT WED MAY 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     HAIL             WARREN                  30.61N 94.41W
05/03/2017  E1.75 INCH       TYLER              TX   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE PICUTRES OF LARGE HAIL POSTED TO NEWS CHANNEL
            SOCIAL MEDIA PAGE

&&

STW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
743 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

LAZ045-053>055-031330-
Lower St. Martin LA-Iberia LA-Upper St. Martin LA-St. Mary LA-
743 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN IBERIA...ST. MARY
AND SOUTHERN ST. MARTIN PARISHES UNTIL 830 AM CDT...

At 743 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Loreauville to 11 miles east of Burns
Point. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Morgan City, Franklin, Patterson, Jeanerette, Berwick, Bayou Vista,
Stephensville, Belle River, Baldwin, Loreauville, Patterson Memorial
Airport, Sorrel, Lake Fausse Pointe, Charenton, Amelia, Pierre Part
and Centerville.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for south central
Louisiana.

LAT...LON 2955 9128 2945 9130 2948 9131 2945 9133
      2949 9131 2957 9143 2963 9140 2958 9143
      3006 9184 3031 9162 3024 9157 3023 9147
      3010 9146 3004 9122 3000 9126 2992 9123
      2985 9118 2980 9109 2964 9111 2963 9108
TIME...MOT...LOC 1243Z 241DEG 18KT 3002 9177 2952 9135

Landreneau