Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
333 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...

.Short Term...Today through Monday

Main forecast issue in ongoing thunderstorm activity especially
over eastern parts of the forecast area. Models including latest
HRRR have linear MCS line rapidly moving out of the forecast area
by late morning. Will continue with this trend. Water vapor shows
shortwave lifting through east Texas with convection continuing to
initiate along an upper jet streak that is approaching the area.
This may enhance the severe potential of this line during the
morning hours with hail and damaging winds possible. Also..will
need to monitor heavy rain threat especially over Jeff Davis and
Allen parishes for the next several hours.

Tornado watch will continue mainly in Louisiana. May be able to
clear some parishes in SW Louisiana before sunrise.

Current wind advisory configuration looks good with advisory
expiring from west to east during the morning hours.

High pressure will build over the area tonight and Monday. Cooler
and drier weather is expected with low temperatures possibly
dropping into the 40s across east Texas and central Louisiana.

.Long Term...Monday night through Saturday
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday. Upper trough will dig
into the Southern Plains.  Will increase rain chances beginning
Tuesday night as increasing thte is forecasted and short wave energy
approaches.  High rain chances are forecasted for Wednesday and
Wednesday night as the cold front approaches and advances as low
pressure waves ride along it. Drier weather trend is expected for
Friday through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
In the near term...will continue coastal flood advisory with high
tide late this morning. At this time...expect tides to range from
3-3.8 feet above MLLW.

Will continue with SCA through 21Z for nearshore and offshore
waters. Gradient is forecasted to weaken so may be able to cancel
early.

Gradient is forecasted to strengthen Tuesday. Winds behind the front
Wednesday may be strong enough to maintain SCAs until high
pressure builds over the area on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  51  80  55 / 100  10   0   0
LCH  76  53  81  60 /  80  10   0   0
LFT  78  56  82  59 / 100  10   0   0
BPT  76  52  81  62 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ041-042-073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     Wind Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for LAZ052>055.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ215-216.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for TXZ215.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ435-
     450-452-455-470-472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from this afternoon through late
     tonight for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ430-432.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from 10 AM CDT this morning through
     this afternoon for GMZ430-432.

&&

PUBLIC...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
456 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
301000-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
456 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
A Coastal Flood Warning for minor flooding as strong winds pile up
water along the coast this morning. Otherwise strong and gusty
winds today over southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. A Wind
Advisory has been posted through Sunday morning as a cold front
will make it's way down into the region. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms expected to develop out ahead of the
front. There is a chance that some storms may become severe with
the main threat hail and winds. Heavy rains will also accompany
these storms. Storms will draw to a close Sunday afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday
Rains ending Sunday evening as drier air spills in from the
northwest. Cooler and drier air will start out the week but rains
return by midweek as another front will makes it's presents felt.
The front comes through on Thursday morning with the region
expected to dry out for the rest of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be required.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-301000-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
456 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Small Craft Advisory for today into tonight as winds and seas will
remain elevated with the approach a cold front from the northwest.
Showers and thunderstorms expected through Sunday ending behind
the wind shift.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday
Winds expected to swing around to the northwest late Sunday
morning as the front moves through with showers tapering off.
Winds are expected to begin relaxing with seas falling Sunday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1238 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

LAZ027-028-031-032-041-042-300630-
Calcasieu LA-Jefferson Davis LA-Evangeline LA-Allen LA-Vernon LA-
Rapides LA-
1238 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN RAPIDES...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...WESTERN EVANGELINE...EAST CENTRAL CALCASIEU...SOUTHEASTERN
VERNON AND ALLEN PARISHES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

At 1237 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Elizabeth to near Iowa. Movement was
northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Charles, Jennings, Oakdale, Welsh, Iowa, Kinder, Basile,
Oberlin, Glenmora, Elton, Elizabeth, Turkey Creek, Fenton, Reeves,
Hineston, Mittie, Grant, Lecompte, Elmer and Lebleu Settlement.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3048 9257 3048 9263 3042 9260 3039 9261
      3038 9263 3034 9262 3022 9267 3021 9318
      3060 9303 3060 9298 3071 9298 3116 9280
      3116 9229
TIME...MOT...LOC 0537Z 203DEG 39KT 3081 9279 3028 9300

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1258 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

LAZ027-030-TXZ260-262-300645-
Beauregard LA-Vernon LA-Southern Newton TX-Northern Newton TX-
1258 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEAUREGARD...VERNON PARISHES IN
WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND EAST CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM
CDT...

At 1256 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorm from near Merryville to Singer, moving northeast at 40
mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leesville, Rosepine, Merryville, Anacoco, Singer, Fort Polk, De
Ridder, Slagle, Fields, Deridder, Dequincy, New Llano, Hornbeck,
Bivens, Hutton, Kurthwood, Junction, Oretta, Longville and Burr
Ferry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3136 9299 3134 9298 3133 9294 3050 9326
      3049 9375 3128 9345 3136 9339
TIME...MOT...LOC 0556Z 195DEG 38KT 3078 9346

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
219 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0214 AM     HAIL             3 SSW HATHAWAY          30.31N 92.69W
04/30/2017  M1.25 INCH       JEFFERSON DAVIS    LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPORADIC HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL FALLING.

&&

JRUA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
251 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

LAZ028-029-300830-
Avoyelles LA-Rapides LA-
251 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN RAPIDES AND AVOYELLES
PARISHES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

At 250 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Esler Regional Airport to near Hessmer.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Alexandria, Marksville, Simmesport, Moreauville, Bordelonville,
Effie, Ball, Cottonport, Mansura, Hessmer, Plaucheville, Deville,
Libuse, Echo, Brouillette, Esler Regional Airport, Lake Ophelia
National Wildlife Refuge, Poland, Big Bend and Kolin.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for central
Louisiana.

LAT...LON 3146 9217 3141 9215 3136 9208 3133 9208
      3134 9203 3132 9200 3128 9202 3127 9199
      3122 9199 3125 9196 3122 9194 3123 9192
      3127 9195 3130 9191 3122 9175 3104 9173
      3096 9183 3097 9227 3143 9242 3147 9216
TIME...MOT...LOC 0750Z 219DEG 39KT 3145 9231 3102 9212

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
316 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

LAZ028-029-031>033-041>043-052-074-300915-
Calcasieu LA-Acadia LA-Jefferson Davis LA-St. Landry LA-Avoyelles LA-
Vermilion LA-Evangeline LA-Allen LA-East Cameron LA-Rapides LA-
316 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CAMERON...EASTERN
RAPIDES...JEFFERSON DAVIS...EVANGELINE...ACADIA...SOUTHEASTERN
CALCASIEU...WESTERN VERMILION...AVOYELLES...CENTRAL ST. LANDRY AND
EASTERN ALLEN PARISHES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

At 314 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Marksville to near Lacassine National
Wildlife Refuge. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Alexandria, Opelousas, Crowley, Eunice, Jennings, Rayne, Oakdale,
Ville Platte, Marksville, Church Point, Bunkie, Mamou, Welsh, Iowa,
Lake Arthur, Kinder, Basile, Oberlin, Iota and Gueydan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for central, south
central and southwestern Louisiana.

LAT...LON 3145 9216 3133 9208 3134 9203 3132 9200
      3128 9202 3122 9199 3123 9192 3127 9195
      3130 9191 3120 9173 2957 9257 2978 9323
      3145 9233 3148 9221
TIME...MOT...LOC 0814Z 207DEG 38KT 3116 9213 2993 9291

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
320 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

LAZ027-028-030-031-300915-
Allen LA-Beauregard LA-Vernon LA-Rapides LA-
320 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN RAPIDES...EASTERN
BEAUREGARD...EASTERN VERNON AND CENTRAL ALLEN PARISHES UNTIL 415 AM
CDT...

At 320 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Lena to near Longville. Movement was northeast
at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Alexandria, Pineville, Oakdale, Boyce, Elizabeth, Reeves, Dry Creek,
Alexandria International Airport, Sugartown, Ragley, Hineston, Lena,
Pitkin, Mittie, Grant, Deridder, Ball, Tioga, Timber Trails and
Flatwoods.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for central,
southwestern and west central Louisiana.

LAT...LON 3145 9271 3145 9268 3140 9269 3140 9267
      3139 9266 3145 9234 3049 9285 3049 9342
      3136 9301 3135 9295 3137 9295 3137 9292
      3139 9291 3139 9289 3142 9287 3142 9285
      3143 9284 3144 9281 3149 9276 3149 9270
TIME...MOT...LOC 0820Z 211DEG 43KT 3145 9277 3063 9316

MM