Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
630 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 505 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Updated forecast to reflect severe thunderstorm watch and added
heavy rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

The HRRR, NAM and GFS continue bounce around the prospect of a heavy
rain center developing tonight somewhere between Valentine, Thedford
and Broken Bow. This not uncommon. We probably won't know where it
will develop until the thunderstorms begin coalesce this evening or
later.

It certainly appears conditions are favorable for storms capable of
heavy rainfall as storms began to develop late this morning. All
models indicate precipitable water increasing to 1.5 inches or
higher and remaining high overnight. A strong upper level trof
across UT/NV this afternoon will approach Nebraska overnight lowering
heights aloft, steepening lapse rates and forcing thunderstorm
development. The model consensus shows a sfc cold front drifting
southeast overnight with a large warm sector opening up across Ncntl
Neb.

The rain activity is expected to shift east Wednesday morning with
cooler temperatures and northwest winds.

Severe weather has developed and is expected to continue well into the
evening hours as a series of MCS's move through Swrn and Ncntl Neb.
Ping pong to golf ball size hail was reported beginning around 830 am.
The HRRR is the basis for this forecast. The amazing part of this is
bulk effective shear is less than 25kt, but lapse rates below 500
mb are steep.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

The upper level trof across UT/NV this afternoon moves into the midwest
Thursday morning. This will set up northwest flow aloft which would
last until Saturday. 500mb winds aloft increase to around 30kt. Return
moisture develops Thursday suggesting a chance of thunderstorms late
Thursday/Thursday night. That rain chance shifts east Friday. More
return moisture develops Saturday through Monday with additional
rain chances mainly late in the day or in the evening. The potential
for strong or severe thunderstorms will remain under review at this
point. All rain chances are 40 percent or lower and generally isolated
in terms of coverage.

A gradual warming trend develops as h700 mb temperatures rise into the
lower teens by this weekend. This would support highs in the upper 80s
to around 90.

The sky forecast for 1 pm CDT Monday: the ECM and GFS would suggest the
potential for some high cloudiness associated with subtropical moisture
streaming across the Rockies.

The GFS indicates scattered midlevel cloudiness. Both the ECM and GFS
show morning stratus associated with a cold front drifting into Neb.
Presumably these clouds would burn off by noon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Two areas of thunderstorms will continue this evening. Storms are
capable of heavy precipitation in both areas with near zero
visibility in the vicinity of thunderstorms. A nocturnal low level
jet will develop though the evening and intensify storms with
storms along and west of a KVTN to KLBF line capable of large hail
and strong damaging winds. Storms are expeceed to congeal after
midnight central and produce torrential rain through the early
morning hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

WPC suggests the eastern portion of the forecast area could experience
some level of flooding over the next 24 hours. The Flash Flood Watch
has been expanded to include a good portion of Ncntl Neb and Swrn Neb.
The RFC 3-hour flash flood guidance shows 1.5 to 2 inches in many areas
and this was the basis for the flash flood watch covering much of the
forecast area.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NEZ006>010-022-
026>029-038-056>059-069>071.

&&

UPDATE...Power
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Power
HYDROLOGY...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
307 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-162015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
307 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017 /207 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Severe storms are expected to continue this evening across a
large portion of western and north central Nebraska.

The area of concern is generally along and south of a line from
Alliance to Valentine to Spencer. The hazards are large hail and
damaging winds. An isolated tornado may form and this would be
most likely to occur east of highway 83.

The threat of flash flooding will accompany the severe weather.
Areas which received heavy rainfall over the past few days are at
greatest risk for flash flooding. See the Flash Flood Watch
product for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday, and Thursday night, as well
as Sunday night across the outlook area. At this time, the threat
for severe storms is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HEAVY RAIN       AMELIA                  42.23N 98.96W
08/15/2017  M4.80 INCH       HOLT               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TOTAL SO FAR TODAY.

&&

BTAYLOR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
645 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2017

NEZ037-038-160030-
Custer NE-Logan NE-
645 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOGAN AND NORTHERN CUSTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 644 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Stapleton to 7 miles north
of Arnold to 7 miles north of Comstock. Movement was northeast at 5
mph.

1 to 3 inches of rainfall, half inch hail and winds of 45 mph will
be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Stapleton, Sargent, Anselmo, Gandy, Victoria Springs State Recreation
Area, Lillian, Logan, Milburn, Round Valley, Walworth, Tarboz Lake,
Shanklin Bluff, Hoagland, Brown Lake, Big Oak Canyon, Divide Hill,
Gates and Pleasant Hill.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 109 and 121.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 248 and 267.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 220 and 228, and between mile
markers 256 and 258.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 109 and 129.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central and west central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4157 9922 4141 10068 4173 10068 4174 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 233DEG 6KT 4156 10061 4152 10022 4166 9923

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
647 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2017

NEZ010-028-029-160045-
Wheeler NE-Holt NE-Garfield NE-
647 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GARFIELD...
SOUTHEASTERN HOLT AND WHEELER COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 647 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Clearwater to 11 miles
northwest of Bartlett to 7 miles east of Fort Hartsuff State Park.
Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

1 to 2 inches of rainfall, half inch hail and winds of 45 mph will
be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bartlett, Ericson, Knievels Corner, Cumminsville, Four Corners, Pibel
Lake State Recreation Area, Buffalo Flats, Goose Lake State Wildlife
Management Area and Gables.

This includes Highway 281 between mile markers 132 and 161.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4174 9874 4175 9901 4213 9870 4221 9830
      4174 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 313DEG 16KT 4211 9832 4202 9867 4175 9887

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
551 PM MDT TUE AUG 15 2017

NEZ022-035-056-057-160045-
Deuel NE-Arthur NE-Garden NE-Keith NE-
551 PM MDT TUE AUG 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ARTHUR...NORTHERN KEITH...
SOUTHEASTERN GARDEN AND NORTHEASTERN DEUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
MDT...

At 550 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Roscoe to 6 miles west of Lemoyne to 8
miles northwest of Big Springs. Movement was north at 5 mph.

1 to 2 inches of rainfall, half inch hail and winds in excess of 40
mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ogallala, Arthur, Lewellen, Lemoyne, Keystone, Kingsley Dam, Eagle
Gulch Campground, Ruthon, Haythorn Lake, Clear Creek State Wildlife
Management Area, Sand Puddin Lake, Nevens, Broganville, McKeag, Otter
Creek Campground, Lake View Campground, Ash Hollow State Historical
Park, Belmar, Velma and Bluewater Battlefield State Historical Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 61 between mile markers 89 and 132.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 115 and 170.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of, southwestern and west central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4114 10142 4115 10221 4148 10229 4171 10161
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 201DEG 6KT 4116 10154 4125 10192 4117 10216

CDC

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