Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

Highway cameras and sfc obs indicate the fog has lifted so we are
cancelling the dense fog advisory. Patchy fog will still occur
for a few hours this morning.

UPDATE Issued at 435 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

areas of dense fog are underway across parts of north central
Nebraska this morning. See the latest weather message for updates
and details.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

3 rounds of thunderstorms roll through wrn Neb today and tonight.
The first is ongoing and should dissipate near or west of highway
83. The NAM nest shows it carving through Swrn Neb through 15z this
morning and this might be the best forecast based on the latest
radar trends.

A second area of thunderstorms is underway across Ern WY. The models
are having a difficult time distinguishing between the the two
disturbances but it is believed the second one should decay as it
moves east into Wrn Neb later this morning.

A third area of thunderstorms is progged to develop tonight. The
models show deeper moisture in place and this disturbance should
move to along and perhaps east of highway 83 late tonight.

The POP forecast is capped at 20 percent or less today along
and east of highway 83 given the stable air in place.

The fog forecast uses a blend of the HRRR and RAP models. This would
produce dense fog across parts of the sandhills along east of
highway 83 and ncntl Neb this morning. Stay tuned for updates on the
fog situation. No highlight is needed at this time.

The temperature forecast today uses a blend of the HRRR, HRRR EXP
and RAP models which worked well on Saturday. This produces highs in
the 70s to around 80 which is a couple of degrees warmer than
guidance or the model consensus. Bias corrected blended guidance was
the basis for lows tonight in the 50s to lower 60s. This is warmer
than the straight blended guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

A strong disturbance will move east from the central rockies and
cross the central plains Monday into Tuesday. Operational model
guidance is not handling this system very well, and will side more
with the GFS ensemble mean which continues to indicate a closed
circulation at H700mb and potential for significant rainfall. The
05/00Z run last night was indicating southwest Nebraska having the
best chance for a soaking rain. Tonight's 06/00Z run continues to
indicate southwest Nebraska having a good chance for rainfall,
but spreads precipitation farther north into northern Nebraska as
well. Pops have been raised a bit over northern Nebraska to
account for this development, but will keep likely chances
confined to southwest Nebraska for now. Otherwise a mild Monday
and Tuesday with plenty of cloud cover and upslope flow continuing
to keep temperatures below normal.

Drier conditions are expected the latter part of the week in the
wake of early/mid week system. High temperatures will also
moderate some, with highs around 80 expected. Another wave and
increasing chances for rain appear possible by the weekend, with
highs remaining around 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

MVFR and IFR cigs continue to the east of KANW and KOGA line.
These will slowly lift through the afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorms moving out of South Dakota moving into northern
Cherry county in the vicinity of KVTN. Showers and Storms will
increase through the afternoon over northern Nebraska and move
south across the Sandhills into southwest Nebraska this evening.
Some MVFR ceilings to develop early Monday morning with patchy fog
developing.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Power

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
644 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-071145-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
644 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017 /544 AM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

Scattered strong thunderstorms will affect portions of western
and north central Nebraska today and tonight. No severe storms are
expected but some storms will be capable of strong winds, locally
heavy rainfall and small hail, primarily west of Highway 83.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Near daily chances of thunderstorms exist across western and
north central Nebraska this week. The risk of severe weather
appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1248 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2017

NEZ005-061915-
Eastern Cherry NE-
1248 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1247 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kilgore, or 21 miles northwest of Valentine, moving southeast at 20
mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Valentine, Crookston, Highway 97 crossing the Niobrara River and
Schlagel Creek State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 178 and 214.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 128 and 141.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 193 and 218.
 Highway 12 between mile markers 1 and 3.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4277 10025 4256 10049 4286 10091 4300 10090
      4300 10069
TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 309DEG 17KT 4301 10093

Power