Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
436 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

reas of dense fog are underway across parts of north central
Nebraska this morning. See the latest weather message for updates
and details.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

3 rounds of thunderstorms roll through wrn Neb today and tonight.
The first is ongoing and should dissipate near or west of highway
83. The NAM nest shows it carving through Swrn Neb through 15z this
morning and this might be the best forecast based on the latest
radar trends.

A second area of thunderstorms is underway across Ern WY. The models
are having a difficult time distinguishing between the the two
disturbances but it is believed the second one should decay as it
moves east into Wrn Neb later this morning.

A third area of thunderstorms is progged to develop tonight. The
models show deeper moisture in place and this disturbance should
move to along and perhaps east of highway 83 late tonight.

The POP forecast is capped at 20 percent or less today along
and east of highway 83 given the stable air in place.

The fog forecast uses a blend of the HRRR and RAP models. This would
produce dense fog across parts of the sandhills along east of
highway 83 and ncntl Neb this morning. Stay tuned for updates on the
fog situation. No highlight is needed at this time.

The temperature forecast today uses a blend of the HRRR, HRRR EXP
and RAP models which worked well on Saturday. This produces highs in
the 70s to around 80 which is a couple of degrees warmer than
guidance or the model consensus. Bias corrected blended guidance was
the basis for lows tonight in the 50s to lower 60s. This is warmer
than the straight blended guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

A strong disturbance will move east from the central rockies and
cross the central plains Monday into Tuesday. Operational model
guidance is not handling this system very well, and will side more
with the GFS ensemble mean which continues to indicate a closed
circulation at H700mb and potential for significant rainfall. The
05/00Z run last night was indicating southwest Nebraska having the
best chance for a soaking rain. Tonight's 06/00Z run continues to
indicate southwest Nebraska having a good chance for rainfall,
but spreads precipitation farther north into northern Nebraska as
well. Pops have been raised a bit over northern Nebraska to
account for this development, but will keep likely chances
confined to southwest Nebraska for now. Otherwise a mild Monday
and Tuesday with plenty of cloud cover and upslope flow continuing
to keep temperatures below normal.

Drier conditions are expected the latter part of the week in the
wake of early/mid week system. High temperatures will also
moderate some, with highs around 80 expected. Another wave and
increasing chances for rain appear possible by the weekend, with
highs remaining around 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

NtMicro RGB satellite imagery shows low clouds increasing in
coverage across central and eastern NEB. Latest surface plot
shows ceilings ranging from LIFR (KEAR) to MVFR (KONL) across
central NEB with the lowest ceilings in south central NEB. KBBW
is reporting FEW010 at the present time. Stratus will continue to
spread westward into southwest NEB and the Sandhills late tonight
with reduction in ceilings to IFR anticipated at both KVTN and
KLBF terminals, the former expected to see ceilings deteriorate
first based on trends and latest guidance. With respect to
shower/thunderstorm chances, chances have been lowered across all
of the local forecast area with chances confined to the eastern
NEB Panhandle and western NEB. Confidence is lower for precip
given trends this evening and latest guidance. Otherwise,
potential for patchy fog and drizzle exists in the morning
outside the NEB Panhandle.

Improvement in flight categories to VFR is expected to take place
mid-late morning across much of the local forecast area. Of
which, MVFR ceilings may linger into the early afternoon in parts
of north central NEB tomorrow. Overall, mostly cloudy to partly
sunny skies are expected tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms will
be possible as well in western NEB with best chances in the
afternoon and evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning for
NEZ005-071.

&&

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...ET

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
427 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-070930-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
427 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017 /327 AM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

Areas of dense fog are underway across parts of north central
Nebraska this morning. See the latest weather message for details.

Scattered thunderstorms will affect portions of western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. No severe storms are expected
but some storms will be capable of strong winds and small hail,
primarily west of Highway 83.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Near daily chances of thunderstorms exist across western and north
central Nebraska this week. The risk of severe weather appears
low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
542 AM CDT SUN AUG 6 2017

NEZ059-070-071-061130-
Frontier NE-Hayes NE-Lincoln NE-
542 AM CDT SUN AUG 6 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 541 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Dickens to near Hayes Center. Movement was
southeast at 25 mph.

Winds near 30 mph will be possible with these storms with 1 to 1 and
1/2 inches of rainfall in less than an hour.

Locations impacted include...
Maywood, Quick, Marengo and Hayes Center State Wildlife Management
Area.

This includes Highway 83 between mile markers 30 and 54.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4068 10099 4083 10093 4081 10085 4065 10056
      4039 10063 4059 10103
TIME...MOT...LOC 1041Z 303DEG 24KT 4081 10090 4058 10096

CDC

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