Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
639 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

A blend of the GFS1hr, HRRR, HRRR experimental, and RAP models
suggests a 40-60 mile shift west with the QLCS forecast to develop
this evening. This would be from Sutherland to Mullen to Merriman.
It is possible this is related to backing low level winds early this
evening or slower initiation and evolution.

The storm mode follows the SPC forecast with very large hail along
and west of highway 83 and wind damage along and east of highway 83.
The 850 mb HRRR winds surge from the west as the model depicted QLCS
moves through Custer County.

There is a chance that very warm air aloft could cap the atmosphere
and limit storm coverage to isolated coverage late this afternoon.
The pacific cold front is forecast to cool 700mb temperatures and
weaken the cap allowing more storm development across Ncntl Neb.

All of the severe weather should exit Ncntl Neb around 06z or so
with some lingering general thunderstorms thereafter. Wednesday is a
dry forecast. H700mb temperatures fall slowly throughout the day
wind northwest winds. A blend of guidance plus bias correction
suggested lows in the 50s and 60s tonight with highs in the 80s
Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Another fairly deep upper level low moves through Srn Canada
Wednesday night and Thursday. The model consensus suggests
thunderstorms form Wednesday night and last throughout the day
Thursday. Temperatures at h700mb remain cool limiting instability.
The NAM and GFS indicate less than 1000 j/kg of elevated CAPE at
night. There is a chance daytime heating could produce sufficient
instability Thursday afternoon across Srn Neb, generally along and
south of Interstate 80. SPC was generous with the SWODY3 outlook
covering nearly all of the forecast area with 5 percent severe
weather potential. This is likely the result of uncertainty of the
position of a frontal boundary left by the storm activity tonight.

An opportunity for severe weather develops Sunday and Sunday night.
500mb winds pick up to 35 to 45 kts and the GFS indicates reasonable
MLCAPE, 2500 j/kg. The flow aloft is northwest and the cap is
weak...10-12C. The ECM is in agreement with the GFS. The ECM
indicates sfc based CAPE near 3000 j/kg, K indices in the 30s and
Total Totals in the mid to upper 50s. Both models produce
substantial QPF.

All other thunderstorm chances are isolated and no significant heat
wave conditions are shown by the models. A hot-prod develops Sunday
across Swrn Neb and H700mb temperatures spike to around 12C. This
could easily produce highs in the lower 90s. The forecast is for
upper 70s to upper 80s Thursday through Tuesday with the cooler
temperatures Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

QLCS is underway pretty much as forecast by the HRRR and RAP
models. This system should be east of Ncntl Nebraska by 09z-10z.

Pacific high pressure will build into Ncntl Nebraska in the wake
of this system. VFR is expected all areas thereafter and
throughout the day Wednesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
240 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-281945-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
240 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 /140 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

Severe thunderstorms are likely after 4pm MDT/5pm CDT this
afternoon in the Panhandle. Storms will have a large hail
threat early on, with hail larger than 2 inches in diameter
possible. The storms will move east and form a line into
the evening, at this time, damaging wind will become the
primary threat.

Throughout the event, there is a chance for tornadoes though
the envoronment is NOT favorable for long-track significant
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

Thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday night through Sunday.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday and
Thursday night mainly along and east of a line from Eustis to
Anselmo, and south of Oneill. Strong or briefly severe
thunderstorms are also possible Sunday and Sunday evening.
Otherwise, the threat for strong or severe weather is uncertain
in the remainder of the period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed along and north of
Interstate 80 after 4pm MDT/5pm CDT. Be vigilant for updates
in spotter activation status this evening.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
414 PM MDT TUE JUN 27 2017

NEZ004-094-272300-
Sheridan NE-Western Cherry NE-
414 PM MDT TUE JUN 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY AND NORTHERN
SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

At 414 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hay Springs, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gordon, Rushville, Hay Springs, Clinton, Lone Butte, Irwin,
Intersection of Highway 20 and Irwin Road, Intersection of Highway 87
and Antelope Road, Walgren Lake State Recreation Area, Shell Lake
State Wildlife Management Area, Bayonne and Intersection of Highway
27 and Mills Road.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 77 and 121.
 Highway 250 between mile markers 39 and 48.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of and north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4277 10186 4249 10271 4258 10278 4268 10277
      4300 10204 4300 10202
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 242DEG 41KT 4261 10269

Power

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
545 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             6 WNW HAY SPRINGS       42.72N 102.80W
06/27/2017  U1.00 INCH       DAWES              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
601 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             12 NNW RUSHVILLE        42.87N 102.56W
06/27/2017  M1.75 INCH       SHERIDAN           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     HAIL             OSHKOSH                 41.41N 102.34W
06/27/2017  E1.50 INCH       GARDEN             NE   PUBLIC

&&

JGOMEZ

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
552 PM MDT TUE JUN 27 2017

NEZ022-035-056>058-280045-
Deuel NE-Arthur NE-Perkins NE-Garden NE-Keith NE-
552 PM MDT TUE JUN 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ARTHUR...NORTHWESTERN PERKINS...
KEITH...SOUTHEASTERN GARDEN...SOUTHWESTERN MCPHERSON AND EASTERN
DEUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM MDT...

At 550 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 15 miles northeast of Lewellen to 6 miles
southeast of Julesburg. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Strong wind and hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ogallala, Big Springs, Arthur, Brule, Keystone, Kingsley Dam, Barton,
Lemoyne, Roscoe, Megeath, Bucktail Lake, Three Mile Lake, Eagle Gulch
Campground, Ruthon, Haythorn Lake, Clear Creek State Wildlife
Management Area, Broganville, McKeag, Otter Creek Campground and Lake
View Campground.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 61 between mile markers 74 and 128.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 115 and 179.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 100 and 138.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near Lake McConaughy, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of, southwestern and west central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4156 10207 4167 10141 4148 10140 4096 10153
      4086 10205 4100 10205 4101 10222
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 250DEG 33KT 4152 10200 4093 10217

JWS