Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS North Platte, NE

740 
WWUS53 KLBF 272239
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
439 PM MDT TUE JUN 27 2017

NEC161-272315-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-170627T2315Z/
Sheridan NE-
439 PM MDT TUE JUN 27 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MDT
FOR NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY...

At 439 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Rushville,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Gordon, Rushville, Clinton, Hoover Lake, Metcalf State Wildlife
Management Area, Lone Butte, Intersection of Beaver Creek Road and
White Clay Creek Road and Mount Maria.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 81 and 112.
 Highway 250 between mile markers 43 and 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4300 10239 4300 10209 4278 10208 4258 10257
      4274 10272 4278 10277 4279 10279 4281 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 242DEG 41KT 4279 10252 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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009 
WWUS53 KLBF 272318
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
518 PM MDT TUE JUN 27 2017

NEC161-272328-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-170627T2315Z/
Sheridan NE-
518 PM MDT TUE JUN 27 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of and north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4300 10239 4300 10209 4278 10208 4258 10257
      4274 10272 4278 10277 4279 10279 4281 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 242DEG 41KT 4299 10201 

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
330 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

A blend of the GFS1hr, HRRR, HRRR experimental, and RAP models
suggests a 40-60 mile shift west with the QLCS forecast to develop
this evening. This would be from Sutherland to Mullen to Merriman.
It is possible this is related to backing low level winds early this
evening or slower initiation and evolution.

The storm mode follows the SPC forecast with very large hail along
and west of highway 83 and wind damage along and east of highway 83.
The 850 mb HRRR winds surge from the west as the model depicted QLCS
moves through Custer County.

There is a chance that very warm air aloft could cap the atmosphere
and limit storm coverage to isolated coverage late this afternoon.
The pacific cold front is forecast to cool 700mb temperatures and
weaken the cap allowing more storm development across Ncntl Neb.

All of the severe weather should exit Ncntl Neb around 06z or so
with some lingering general thunderstorms thereafter. Wednesday is a
dry forecast. H700mb temperatures fall slowly throughout the day
wind northwest winds. A blend of guidance plus bias correction
suggested lows in the 50s and 60s tonight with highs in the 80s
Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Another fairly deep upper level low moves through Srn Canada
Wednesday night and Thursday. The model consensus suggests
thunderstorms form Wednesday night and last throughout the day
Thursday. Temperatures at h700mb remain cool limiting instability.
The NAM and GFS indicate less than 1000 j/kg of elevated CAPE at
night. There is a chance daytime heating could produce sufficient
instability Thursday afternoon across Srn Neb, generally along and
south of Interstate 80. SPC was generous with the SWODY3 outlook
covering nearly all of the forecast area with 5 percent severe
weather potential. This is likely the result of uncertainty of the
position of a frontal boundary left by the storm activity tonight.

An opportunity for severe weather develops Sunday and Sunday night.
500mb winds pick up to 35 to 45 kts and the GFS indicates reasonable
MLCAPE, 2500 j/kg. The flow aloft is northwest and the cap is
weak...10-12C. The ECM is in agreement with the GFS. The ECM
indicates sfc based CAPE near 3000 j/kg, K indices in the 30s and
Total Totals in the mid to upper 50s. Both models produce
substantial QPF.

All other thunderstorm chances are isolated and no significant heat
wave conditions are shown by the models. A hot-prod develops Sunday
across Swrn Neb and H700mb temperatures spike to around 12C. This
could easily produce highs in the lower 90s. The forecast is for
upper 70s to upper 80s Thursday through Tuesday with the cooler
temperatures Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

A blend of the GFS1hr, HRRR, HRRR experimental, and RAP models
suggests a 40-60 mile shift west with the QLCS forecast to develop
this evening. This would be from Sutherland to Mullen to Merriman.

There is a chance that very warm air aloft could cap the atmosphere
and limit storm coverage to isolated coverage late this afternoon.
The pacific cold front is forecast to cool 700mb temperatures and
weaken the cap allowing more storm development this evening.

All of the severe weather should exit Ncntl Neb around 06z or so
with some lingering general thunderstorms thereafter. VFR is
expected from 09z onward Wednesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
240 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-281945-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
240 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 /140 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

Severe thunderstorms are likely after 4pm MDT/5pm CDT this
afternoon in the Panhandle. Storms will have a large hail
threat early on, with hail larger than 2 inches in diameter
possible. The storms will move east and form a line into
the evening, at this time, damaging wind will become the
primary threat.

Throughout the event, there is a chance for tornadoes though
the envoronment is NOT favorable for long-track significant
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

Thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday night through Sunday.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday and
Thursday night mainly along and east of a line from Eustis to
Anselmo, and south of Oneill. Strong or briefly severe
thunderstorms are also possible Sunday and Sunday evening.
Otherwise, the threat for strong or severe weather is uncertain
in the remainder of the period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed along and north of
Interstate 80 after 4pm MDT/5pm CDT. Be vigilant for updates
in spotter activation status this evening.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
411 PM MDT TUE JUN 27 2017

NEZ022-272245-
Garden NE-
411 PM MDT TUE JUN 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GARDEN COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM MDT...

At 410 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Crescent Lake National Wildlife Refuge, or 20
miles northwest of Oshkosh, moving east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crescent Lake National Wildlife Refuge, Richardson Lake, Mumper,
Rackett, Dogtown Flats, Deer Lake, Adams Flats, Britton Lake and
Sugar Loaf Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4184 10221 4153 10215 4150 10264 4174 10264
      4175 10266
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 256DEG 26KT 4165 10257

JWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
414 PM MDT TUE JUN 27 2017

NEZ004-094-272300-
Sheridan NE-Western Cherry NE-
414 PM MDT TUE JUN 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY AND NORTHERN
SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

At 414 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hay Springs, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gordon, Rushville, Hay Springs, Clinton, Lone Butte, Irwin,
Intersection of Highway 20 and Irwin Road, Intersection of Highway 87
and Antelope Road, Walgren Lake State Recreation Area, Shell Lake
State Wildlife Management Area, Bayonne and Intersection of Highway
27 and Mills Road.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 77 and 121.
 Highway 250 between mile markers 39 and 48.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of and north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4277 10186 4249 10271 4258 10278 4268 10277
      4300 10204 4300 10202
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 242DEG 41KT 4261 10269

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