Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
639 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

A blend of the GFS1hr, HRRR, HRRR experimental, and RAP models
suggests a 40-60 mile shift west with the QLCS forecast to develop
this evening. This would be from Sutherland to Mullen to Merriman.
It is possible this is related to backing low level winds early this
evening or slower initiation and evolution.

The storm mode follows the SPC forecast with very large hail along
and west of highway 83 and wind damage along and east of highway 83.
The 850 mb HRRR winds surge from the west as the model depicted QLCS
moves through Custer County.

There is a chance that very warm air aloft could cap the atmosphere
and limit storm coverage to isolated coverage late this afternoon.
The pacific cold front is forecast to cool 700mb temperatures and
weaken the cap allowing more storm development across Ncntl Neb.

All of the severe weather should exit Ncntl Neb around 06z or so
with some lingering general thunderstorms thereafter. Wednesday is a
dry forecast. H700mb temperatures fall slowly throughout the day
wind northwest winds. A blend of guidance plus bias correction
suggested lows in the 50s and 60s tonight with highs in the 80s
Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Another fairly deep upper level low moves through Srn Canada
Wednesday night and Thursday. The model consensus suggests
thunderstorms form Wednesday night and last throughout the day
Thursday. Temperatures at h700mb remain cool limiting instability.
The NAM and GFS indicate less than 1000 j/kg of elevated CAPE at
night. There is a chance daytime heating could produce sufficient
instability Thursday afternoon across Srn Neb, generally along and
south of Interstate 80. SPC was generous with the SWODY3 outlook
covering nearly all of the forecast area with 5 percent severe
weather potential. This is likely the result of uncertainty of the
position of a frontal boundary left by the storm activity tonight.

An opportunity for severe weather develops Sunday and Sunday night.
500mb winds pick up to 35 to 45 kts and the GFS indicates reasonable
MLCAPE, 2500 j/kg. The flow aloft is northwest and the cap is
weak...10-12C. The ECM is in agreement with the GFS. The ECM
indicates sfc based CAPE near 3000 j/kg, K indices in the 30s and
Total Totals in the mid to upper 50s. Both models produce
substantial QPF.

All other thunderstorm chances are isolated and no significant heat
wave conditions are shown by the models. A hot-prod develops Sunday
across Swrn Neb and H700mb temperatures spike to around 12C. This
could easily produce highs in the lower 90s. The forecast is for
upper 70s to upper 80s Thursday through Tuesday with the cooler
temperatures Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

QLCS is underway pretty much as forecast by the HRRR and RAP
models. This system should be east of Ncntl Nebraska by 09z-10z.

Pacific high pressure will build into Ncntl Nebraska in the wake
of this system. VFR is expected all areas thereafter and
throughout the day Wednesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
240 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-281945-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
240 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 /140 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

Severe thunderstorms are likely after 4pm MDT/5pm CDT this
afternoon in the Panhandle. Storms will have a large hail
threat early on, with hail larger than 2 inches in diameter
possible. The storms will move east and form a line into
the evening, at this time, damaging wind will become the
primary threat.

Throughout the event, there is a chance for tornadoes though
the envoronment is NOT favorable for long-track significant
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

Thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday night through Sunday.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday and
Thursday night mainly along and east of a line from Eustis to
Anselmo, and south of Oneill. Strong or briefly severe
thunderstorms are also possible Sunday and Sunday evening.
Otherwise, the threat for strong or severe weather is uncertain
in the remainder of the period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed along and north of
Interstate 80 after 4pm MDT/5pm CDT. Be vigilant for updates
in spotter activation status this evening.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
939 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SE ANSELMO            41.60N 99.84W
06/27/2017  E60 MPH          CUSTER             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

BTAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
942 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NE NORTH PLATTE       41.20N 100.68W
06/27/2017  E70 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RELAYED FROM EMERGENCY MANAGER THAT 8 INCH PLUS TREE
            BRANCH DOWN. ESTIMATED WIND GUST OF 70 MPH.

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 WSW STAPLETON         41.43N 100.67W
06/27/2017  E60 MPH          LOGAN              NE   PUBLIC

&&

JGOMEZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
947 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017

NEZ059-071-280330-
Frontier NE-Lincoln NE-
947 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN FRONTIER AND SOUTHEASTERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 947 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles west of Gothenburg to 8 miles northeast
of Stockville to 6 miles west of Medicine Creek Reservoir State
Recreation Area. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Eustis, Stockville, Medicine Creek Reservoir State Recreation Area,
Orafino, Freedom, Dancing Leaf Earth Lodge and Vroman.

This includes Interstate 80 in Nebraska near mile marker 207.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4062 10036 4094 10037 4096 10023 4070 10022
      4070 9998 4044 9998 4043 10009 4035 10010
      4035 10048
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 265DEG 20KT 4090 10029 4061 10026 4040 10037

Buttler

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
953 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 PM     TSTM WND GST     BROKEN BOW              41.41N 99.64W
06/27/2017  M58 MPH          CUSTER             NE   ASOS

&&

BTAYLOR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1022 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017

NEZ010-028-029-280400-
Wheeler NE-Holt NE-Garfield NE-
1022 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GARFIELD...SOUTHEASTERN
HOLT AND WHEELER COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1022 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles south of Amelia to 14 miles west of
Bartlett to near Ericson. Movement was east at 55 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Bartlett around 1035 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Knievels Corner,
Sunfish Lake, Cumminsville, Four Corners, Pibel Lake State Recreation
Area, Buffalo Flats, Goose Lake State Wildlife Management Area and
Gables.

This includes Highway 281 between mile markers 132 and 163.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4174 9902 4211 9902 4224 9830 4174 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0322Z 262DEG 50KT 4204 9891 4191 9884 4176 9875

Taylor

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1028 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E ARNOLD              41.42N 100.17W
06/27/2017  E100 MPH         CUSTER             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E ARNOLD              41.42N 100.17W
06/27/2017                   CUSTER             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER THAT A PIVOT WAS TURNED
            OVER, LOTS OF TREES WERE DOWN, POWER LINES DOWN AND A
            QUARTER OF A BUILDING THAT WAS 100FT BY 80 FT DESTROYED.

&&

JGOMEZ