Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS North Platte, NE

178 
WWUS53 KLBF 110336
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1036 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

NEC005-117-110346-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0129.000000T0000Z-170711T0345Z/
Arthur NE-McPherson NE-
1036 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARTHUR AND
WESTERN MCPHERSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1045 PM CDT/945 PM MDT/...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4175 10119 4174 10114 4153 10096 4139 10144
      4140 10155 4153 10163
TIME...MOT...LOC 0336Z 245DEG 25KT 4157 10118 

$$

ET

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
658 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

H5 analysis from this morning had a lower amplitude
pattern across the CONUS compared to 24 hours ago. High pressure
remained anchored over the four corners, however it was weaker and
ridging extended north into the Northwest Territories of Canada.
Closed lows were located over northeastern British Columbia, as well
as Hudson Bay in Canada. A trough extended south of the British
Columbia low into northern California, while a broad trough of low
pressure extended from the Hudson Bay low south into the eastern
Great Lakes. Across the central CONUS, the flow was westerly to west
northwesterly this morning. Weak shortwaves were noted over southern
South Dakota, eastern Montana, and northern UTAH. As of midday, the
Utah shortwave has pushed into central Wyoming per WV imagery, while
the southwestern South Dakota shortwave had pushed into south
central South Dakota. Regional radar had an area of precipitation in
central Wyoming with another area in northeastern Nebraska as of mid
afternoon. At the surface, a stationary front extended from
southeastern Nebraska west along the Kansas/Nebraska border, west
into northeastern Colorado, then north into eastern Wyoming.
Readings INVOF the front were in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon
with 80s to lower 90s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Tonight through Tuesday: In the near term,
precipitation chances tonight is the main forecast challenge. For
tonight: There will be a couple of areas with possible precipitation
this evening. The first will be INVOF of the stationary front in the
far southern forecast area and the second area will move into the
panhandle early this evening and will traverse the forecast area
tonight. With respect to the first area, the latest NAM12 solution
is indicating some 2000/3000 J/KG capes from Perkins county
southeast into Frontier county between 21 and 00z this afternoon,
with weak cin present during this time period. Deep layer shear is
on the order of 20 to 25 KTS across swrn Nebraska this afternoon, so
the severe threat will be meager, with thunderstorms being isolated
in nature. Further west, shortwaves, currently over southwestern
Wyoming and nw Colorado, will lift into eastern Wyoming and northern
Colorado over the next 6 hours. This will initiate convection across
the higher terrain of eastern WYoming and northern Colorado around
22 to 24z. At the same time, the stationary front across southern
Nebraska will drift slowly north as a warm front into the evening
hours. Convection will track into the panhandle then western
sandhills by 00z, interacting with the stationary front. Indications
are that a low level jet will develop this evening, allowing
convection to persist into the late evening and overnight hours as
it tracks across central and northern Nebraska. Based on where the
front is expected to lie down this evening, will continue to place
the highest pops north of highway 92. Chances will fall off quickly
heading south with locations south of interstate 80 expected to be
dry tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Mid range (Tuesday night through Thursday): After hot
temperatures across all of the forecast area Tuesday, a weak frontal
boundary (ala, wind shift line) will set up across southwestern into
central Nebraska. A shortwave will lift east of the central Rockies
Tuesday evening, interacting with the front over southwestern
Nebraska. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in
eastern Colorado, lifting east along the wind shift line into
southwestern Nebraska. They should become more numerous as they
track into swrn Nebraska where better moisture resides. Inherited
forecast had some slight chance to low end chance pops in the
southwest into eastern portions of the forecast area for Tuesday
evening and let them ride. On Wednesday and Thursday the front will
lie down across southern Nebraska. Precipitation chances will be
favored across the southern half of the forecast area with a very
limited threat across northern Nebraska. Highs Wednesday will be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, followed by 80s on Thursday.

Thursday night through Monday: High pressure aloft will intensify
across the intermountain west late in the week. This will amplify
the pattern across the western CONUS, leading to warmer
temperatures across the central plains this weekend into early next
week. Did go ahead and trend temps higher into the weekend. The GFS
next week builds a 5960 GPM high across northern Nebraska next
Tuesday. If that were to verify, it would be well above 100 degrees
Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Precipitation during the period
will be spotty at best and will be tied into weak shortwaves
rotating around the periphery of the high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Primary aviation concerns revolve around thunderstorm chances in
the near-term (evening through late tonight). Currently VFR
conditions prevail with high clouds spreading eastward across
western NEB. Scattered thunderstorms ongoing and moving eastward
through the NEB Panhandle.

Storms will continue to track east and move into the eastern NEB
Panhandle and western NEB this evening then into central NEB. The
main area of concern is the eastern NEB Panhandle to southwest
NEB and the Southern Sandhills. Increased confidence KLBF terminal
may see some impacts given latest radar trends, environment, and
hi-res guidance thus TEMPO used. Still think thunderstorms/showers
will be south of KVTN terminal but will monitor and update if
needed. Thunderstorms should move out of the local forecast area
during the small hours/by early morning. Dry conditions expected
to prevail much of tomorrow with slight chances for thunderstorms
again in portions of north central NEB in the afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...ET

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
501 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-112215-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
501 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017 /401 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

As a warm front slowly lifts north across southwest Nebraska
tonight. There is some potential for stronger, organized
thunderstorm activity along and north of the front this evening.
The area of concern is near and north of a line from Grant through
Curtis. The main concerns will be strong thunderstorm wind gusts
of 50 mph or greater, and hail up to nickel size.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

The next chance for organized thunderstorms will arrive Wednesday
and Wednesday night. For Thursday and beyond, an upper level
ridge will build across the region, with only isolated
thunderstorms possible, mainly during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Taylor

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
917 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

NEZ008>010-026>028-110300-
Brown NE-Loup NE-Holt NE-Garfield NE-Rock NE-Blaine NE-
917 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ROCK...LOUP...
SOUTHEASTERN BROWN...WESTERN GARFIELD...SOUTHWESTERN HOLT AND EASTERN
BLAINE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 916 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
extending from near Brewster to northwest of Calamus Reservoir.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Brewster, Rose, Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area, Fox Bayou,
Almeria Meadow State Wildlife Management Area, Virginia Smith Dam,
Hannamon Bayou Campground, Carson Lake, Homestead Knolls Campground,
Horseshoe Bend Lake, Almeria, Nunda Shoal Campground, Deverre and
Valley View Flat Campground.

This includes Highway 183 between mile markers 127 and 154.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Calamus Reservoir, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4181 9902 4179 10004 4212 9998 4225 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0216Z 262DEG 35KT 4200 9941 4193 9997

Snively

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
822 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2017

NEZ035-057-110245-
Arthur-Keith-
822 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ARTHUR AND
NORTHWESTERN KEITH COUNTIES...

At 821 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles northwest of
Lemoyne, or 14 miles southwest of Arthur, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Belmar, McKeag and Otter Creek Campground.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 61 between mile markers 105 and 120.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 125 and 127.

LAT...LON 4154 10165 4132 10160 4129 10194 4147 10199
      4147 10198
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 258DEG 22KT 4140 10187

ET

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
838 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2017

NEZ057-110330-
Keith-
838 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL KEITH...NORTHWESTERN
LINCOLN AND SOUTHWESTERN MCPHERSON COUNTIES...

At 837 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Brule, or 11
miles northeast of Big Springs, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ogallala, Paxton, Brule, Sarben, Lemoyne, Keystone, Roscoe, Kingsley
Dam, Eagle Gulch Campground, Nevens, Broganville, Lake View
Campground and Big Bald Hill.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 61 between mile markers 85 and 104.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 129 and 138.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 120 and 141, and
between mile markers 143 and 150.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If you are on or near Lake McConaughy, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4140 10128 4134 10127 4111 10127 4108 10201
      4126 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 260DEG 34KT 4119 10193

ET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
941 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W BIG SPRINGS         41.06N 102.15W
07/10/2017  M63 MPH          DEUEL              NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

ET

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
954 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

NEZ009-010-027>029-110345-
Wheeler NE-Loup NE-Holt NE-Garfield NE-Rock NE-
954 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROCK...LOUP...
GARFIELD...SOUTHERN HOLT AND WHEELER COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

At 952 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms over much of Loup and Garfiled counties. Movement was
east at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Burwell, Taylor, Chambers, Bartlett, Ericson, Rose, Amelia, Calamus
Reservoir State Recreation Area, Fox Bayou, Virginia Smith Dam, Kent
Diversion Dam State Wildlife Management Area, Carson Lake, Sunfish
Lake, Homestead Knolls Campground, Four Corners, Nunda Shoal
Campground, Goose Lake State Wildlife Management Area, Gables,
Knievels Corner and Hannamon Bayou Campground.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 122 and 154.
 Highway 281 between mile markers 132 and 167.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Calamus Reservoir, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 9967 4223 9951 4223 9830 4174 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 262DEG 22KT 4202 9899 4200 9951

Snively

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
954 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

NEZ035-036-110345-
Arthur-McPherson-
954 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ARTHUR...
NORTHEASTERN KEITH...SOUTHERN HOOKER AND WESTERN MCPHERSON
COUNTIES...

At 954 PM CDT/854 PM MDT/, strong thunderstorms were clustered 11
miles southeast of Arthur, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Flatts, Big Lamunyon Flats, Diamond Bar Lake, Bucktail, Bucktail Lake
and Schnick Lake.

This includes Highway 92 between mile markers 174 and 201.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4175 10113 4174 10111 4152 10098 4139 10145
      4140 10159 4153 10166
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 245DEG 33KT 4149 10151

ET