Special Weather Statement, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
405 PM AST Tue Oct 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday

Currently a trough extending northeast from the east central
Caribbean Sea to the Mona channel at lower levels is drifting
slowly westward and keeping flow mostly southerly over Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Moist southerly flow will continue
over the area until Thursday afternoon even though the total
columnar moisture will drop from around 2.2 inches to 1.7 inches
from Wednesday evening through early Friday morning. Lifted
indices will generally range from minus 6 to minus 8 each
afternoon Wednesday and Thursday. Strong convection will continue
to develop this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. But the
divergence patterns as shown by the GFS for the upper atmosphere
indicate that upper levels will give less support to convection
Thursday as a high pressure ridge at 250/200 mb moves west and
over the area. This pattern indicates that the risk of flooding
will continue through at least Thursday afternoon. A flash flood
watch will continue through at least Wednesday at 8 PM AST. The
greatest risk of flooding will also continue to be on the north
side of the Cordillera Central to the north coast of Puerto Rico.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday

A lobe of high pressure will pass north of the forecast area on
Friday and flow will become more northeasterly during the night
Friday night, causing the focus of convection to shift from
northwest Puerto Rico to southwest Puerto Rico on Saturday. Total
precipitable water begins a slow recovery from a rather moist
condition in the first place on early Sunday morning to a peak of
a little more than 2.2 inches on early Tuesday morning. A weak
trough passage on Sunday will cause low level flow to become
southeasterly again and moisture will continue through at least
Tuesday. But the wind shift on Sunday will return the focus of
most convection back to the northwest quarter of Puerto Rico and
upper levels will again give a boost to convection, mainly Sunday
and Monday. The upshot is that showers and thunderstorms are
likely to continue each day through Tuesday with some areas
receiving heavy rain, especially north of the Cordillera Central
Sunday through Tuesday--and at least urban and small stream
flooding being a likely result some areas each day. This pattern
will not likely create as much opportunity for heavy rains over
the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory
conditions. Conditions are also expected to improve through
Saturday, becoming benign except for occasional thunderstorms due
to the very moist and unstable conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL/

AVIATION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect all
terminals throughout the afternoon. Gusty winds of up to 30 knots,
lightning, and MVFR/IFR visibilities and/or ceilings are possible
with any activity. Showers and storms should gradually diminish
this evening. Another round of activity is expected tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  86  80  86 /  40  70  30  60
STT  80  82  82  82 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Central
     Interior-Culebra-Eastern Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-
     North Central-Northeast-Northwest-Ponce and Vicinity-San
     Juan and Vicinity-Southeast-Southwest-Vieques-Western
     Interior.

VI...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for St Croix-
     St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

AM...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Coastal Waters
     OF Southwestern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
     Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
     Southern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern
     USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99

Perspectivas sobre condiciones peligrosas del tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
Emitido por Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia Miami FL
330 PM AST martes 10 de octubre de 2017

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-111930-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-
Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Aguas cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y Caribe-
330 PM AST martes 10 de octubre de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Esta Tarde y Esta Noche

.Inundaciones...Lluvias fuertes continuaran resultando en
inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos, al igual que inundaciones a lo
largo de rios grandes esta tarde. Fuertes lluvias recientes han
dejado gran parte del suelo saturado o casi saturado. Esto aumentara
la amenaza de deslizamientos de lodo en areas de terreno empinado.

.Tronadas...Se esperan aguaceros numerosos y tronadas dispersas a
traves de Puerto Rico esta tarde a medida que una onda tropical se
desplace sobre el area. Rayos frecuentes, lluvia fuerte y rafagas de
vientos seran posibles con cualquier tronada que se desarrolle
especialmente sobre las montanas del centro y los municipios
costeros del norte.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas para la costa norte de Puerto Rico, entre Aguadilla y Rio
Grande.

.Dias Dos a Siete...miercoles a lunes

Se esperan aguaceros numerosos y tronadas dispersas hasta el jueves.
Estas tormentas pudieran producir lluvia fuerte que pudiera resultar
en inundaciones adicionales y deslizamientos, particularmente sobre
los sectores del interior y norte de la isla. Se espera riesgo
moderado de corrientes marinas continuando a lo largo de la costa
norte de Puerto Rico.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones,
lluvias fuertes en exceso de tres pulgadas u otras condiciones
peligrosas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-111930-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-
Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe-
330 PM AST martes 10 de octubre de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones del tiempo peligrosas es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Esta Tarde y Esta Noche

.Tronadas...Se esperan aguaceros numerosos y tronadas dispersas
continuaran a traves de las Islas Virgenes americanas esta tarde a
medida que una onda tropical se desplace sobre el area. Rayos
frecuentes, lluvia fuerte y rafagas de vientos seran posibles con
cualquier tronada que se desarrolle.

.Inundaciones...Lluvias fuertes hoy pudieran resultar en
inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos, al igual que inundaciones a lo
largo de rios grandes. Lluvias recientes han dejado gran parte del
suelo saturado o casi saturado. Esto aumentara la amenaza de
deslizamientos de lodo en area de terreno empinado.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas para los sectores del este de Santa Cruz.

.Dias Dos a Siete...miercoles a lunes

Se esperan aguaceros numerosos y tronadas dispersas hasta el jueves.
Estas tormentas pudieran producir lluvia fuerte que pudiera resultar
en inundaciones adicionales y deslizamientos, particularmente sobre
los sectores del interior y norte de la isla. Se espera riesgo
moderado de corrientes marinas continuando a lo largo de la costa
este de Santa Cruz.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones,
lluvias fuertes en exceso de tres pulgadas u otras condiciones
peligrosas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.

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