Areal Flood Warning 49, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
746 AM AST Tue Oct 10 2017

.UPDATE...
A few tweaks were made to the previous forecast, mainly to bring
the QPF in line with what has been advertised over the last few
days. Still expecting additional rainfall of around 2 to 4 inches
with locally higher amounts across portions of the main island
this afternoon. With already saturated and loose soils, flash
flooding is likely in areas that receive additional heavy rainfall
today. Mudslides will also be possible in areas with steep
terrain. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands through Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area
this afternoon, potentially affecting all terminals but most
likely at TJMZ, TJBQ, and TJSJ. Gusty winds, lightning, and
MVFR to IFR visibility and ceilings are possible with any activity
today. Showers and storms should diminish by tonight before
developing once again tomorrow afternoon. Generally E to SE flow
will become more S to SE by this afternoon at most terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL/

SHORT TERM...Tuesday through Thursday

High level cloudiness prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands overnight. Some showers with thunderstorms were
noted mainly across the coastal waters north of San Juan.
Elsewhere, partly cloudy skies prevailed. Temperatures were in the
upper 70s and the winds were light and variable.

For today, another active day is in store for mainland Puerto
Rico. A very moist and unstable atmosphere due to the combination
of an upper level trough and a tropical wave, will result in
numerous showers with scattered thunderstorms once again along the
Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico. Local computer models
indicated main focus of heavy rainfall will occur this afternoon
across the northern slopes of Puerto Rico. Another area of heavy
showers with thunderstorms can be expected across the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible. A flash flood
watch continues in effect for all Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands until Wednesday afternoon. Many of the rivers and small
streams are running above normal levels, therefore, there is a
high risk of river and small stream flooding as well as mudslides
in areas of steep terrain today and Wednesday. For Thursday, a
drier air mass is forecast to move across the region as the
aforementioned upper level trough move away from the area.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday

A mid to upper level ridge is expected to build from the east by
late in the work week. Therefore, a more seasonal weather pattern
is then expected. However, lingering moisture, will combine with
strong daytime heating and orographic lifting to produce some
showers and thunderstorms mainly each afternoon across the local
islands.

&&

MARINE...
With tropical moisture remaining in place across the region,
showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day. Light E
winds will become southerly by this evening. E to NE winds return
by Thursday night. Waves heights will be highest across the
northeastern waters at around 6 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  83  78  87  80 /  60  40  70  30
STT  81  81  83  82 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Central
     Interior-Culebra-Eastern Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-
     North Central-Northeast-Northwest-Ponce and Vicinity-San
     Juan and Vicinity-Southeast-Southwest-Vieques-Western
     Interior.

VI...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for St Croix-
     St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

AM...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Coastal Waters
     OF Southwestern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
     Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
     Southern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern
     USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99

Perspectivas sobre condiciones peligrosas del tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
Emitido por Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia Miami FL
533 AM AST martes 10 de octubre de 2017

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-110945-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-
Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Aguas cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y Caribe-
533 AM AST martes 10 de octubre de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y Esta Noche

.Inundaciones...Lluvias fuertes hoy pudieran resultar en
inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos, al igual que inundaciones a lo
largo de rios grandes. Lluvias recientes han dejado gran parte del
suelo saturado o casi saturado. Esto aumentara la amenaza de
deslizamientos de lodo en area de terreno empinado.

.Tronadas...Se esperan aguaceros numerosos y tronadas dispersas a
traves de Puerto Rico esta tarde a medida que una onda tropical se
desplace sobre el area. Rayos frecuentes, lluvia fuerte y rafagas de
vientos seran posibles con cualquier tronada que se desarrolle
especialmente sobre las montanas del centro y los municipios
costeros.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas para la costa norte de Puerto Rico, entre Aguadilla y Rio
Grande. La amenaza sera mayor a las 9:00 AM de hoy y luego de las
3:30 PM de hoy debido a los efectos de la marea.

.Dias Dos a Siete...miercoles a lunes

Se esperan aguaceros numerosos y tronadas dispersas hasta el jueves.
Estas tormentas pudieran producir lluvia fuerte que pudiera resultar
en inundaciones adicionales y deslizamientos, particularmente sobre
los sectores del interior y norte de la isla. Se espera riesgo
moderado de corrientes marinas continuando a lo largo de la costa
norte de Puerto Rico.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones
y deslizamientos al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-110945-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-
Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe-
533 AM AST martes 10 de octubre de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones del tiempo peligrosas es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y Esta Noche

.Tronadas...Se esperan aguaceros numerosos y tronadas dispersas a
traves de las Islas Virgenes americanas hoy a medida que una onda
tropical se desplace sobre el area. Rayos frecuentes, lluvia fuerte
y rafagas de vientos seran posibles con cualquier tronada que se
desarrolle.

.Inundaciones...Lluvias fuertes hoy pudieran resultar en
inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos, al igual que inundaciones a lo
largo de rios grandes. Lluvias recientes han dejado gran parte del
suelo saturado o casi saturado. Esto aumentara la amenaza de
deslizamientos de lodo en area de terreno empinado.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas para los sectores del este de Santa Cruz. La amenaza sera
mayor a las 8:00 AM de hoy y luego de las 3:00 PM de hoy debido a
los efectos de la marea.

.Dias Dos a Siete...miercoles a lunes

Se esperan aguaceros numerosos y tronadas dispersas hasta el jueves.
Estas tormentas pudieran producir lluvia fuerte que pudiera resultar
en inundaciones adicionales y deslizamientos, particularmente sobre
los sectores del interior y norte de la isla. Se espera riesgo
moderado de corrientes marinas continuando a lo largo de la costa
norte de Santa Cruz.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a corrientes marinas al
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.