Special Weather Statement, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
116 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Moist and unstable pattern will likely prevail
through midweek. The most active period will be the rest of today
and Wednesday. Some Saharan dust will reach the region on Tuesday.
A generally fair weather pattern will establish the second part
of the week as mid-upper level ridge builds across the Northeast
Caribbean.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...
Upper level trough/TUTT over the Northeast Caribbean will move
west-southwest into the Central and Western Caribbean through
Friday. A tropical wave located over Puerto Rico this afternoon
will move out of the forecast area by tonight. Plenty of moisture
and instability associated with these features will induce the
development of showers and thunderstorms the rest of the
afternoon. Periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be
likely with these afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

The tropical wave and the upper level trough are forecast to move
away from the region on Tuesday...giving way to slightly drier
air mass and less convective instability. Aerosol model NASA
GEOS-5 and satellite observations indicated low to moderate
concentrations of Saharan Dust reaching the Northeast Caribbean
after midnight tonight. However...normal levels of moisture will
combine with orographic forcing and sea breeze convergence to
produce a few rounds of scattered showers across the interior and
west Puerto Rico on Tuesday afternoon. The shower and thunderstorm
coverage will be less than today as convective instability
decreases across the forecast area.

We are monitoring the low pressure system/tropical disturbance
located about 300 miles east-southeast of Trinidad. The latest
track forecast of the NHC keep this disturbance far south of the
local area. Although the bulk of the moisture will remain over the
Caribbean Waters...squally weather and rough marine conditions
are likely across the local region between Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Please stay tuned to the latest NHC forecast for this
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...
After the tropical disturbance passes through our south on
Wednesday, drier air will gradually move in on Thursday and remain
near normal through Saturday, which will probably cause locally
induced showers and thunderstorms once the moisture combines with
the local effects. However, on Sunday another tropical wave is
forecast to pass through the local area with an upper low
positioned just west of the local islands, which would cause an
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity over the local area.
Weather conditions to improve early on the following workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...Tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean will
result in SHRA/ isold TSRA across the regional waters and islands.
Tempo MVFR conds possible across TJNR/TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ TIL 22Z. Tops
250-350 w/TSRA. SFC wnds E-SE 15-20 kts...ocnl higher gust and with
SHRA/TSRA to nr 30 kts psbl.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas will gradually increase through at least
midweek as the tropical wave and the tropical disturbance moves
across the Eastern Caribbean. Rough seas of 6-9 feet or possibly
greater are likely between Tuesday night and Wednesday...especially
across the Caribbean Waters when the tropical disturbance is moving
over the Southeastern Caribbean. As a result...Small craft advisory
will go into effect this evening and continues through at least midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  88  79  88 /  40  40  20  40
STT  80  89  79  88 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM AST
     Wednesday for Atlantic Waters of Puerto Rico and USVI from
     10 NM to 19.5N.

&&

SHORT TERM...ER
LONG TERM....JA

Perspectivas sobre condiciones peligrosas del tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
508 AM AST lunes 19 de junio de 2017

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-200915-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-
Este Interior-Norte Central-Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-
Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Aguas cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y Caribe-
508 AM AST lunes 19 de junio de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia uno...Hoy y Esta Noche

.Tronadas...Existe un potencial de tronadas con lluvias fuertes y
rafagas de vientos breves esta tarde a traves de sectores de las
islas, pero especialmente a traves de las areas del noroeste de
Puerto Rico.

.Inundaciones...Lluvias fuertes pudieran resultar en inundaciones
urbanas y de riachuelos.

.Vientos...Se esperan vientos sostenidos en exceso de 20 mph
mayormente a traves de las aguas costeras de las islas y a traves de
las aguas regionales.

.Olas...Se espera oleaje picado hasta 6 pies a traves de todas las
aguas.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas para la mayoria de las playas del este, norte y sur de las
islas.

.Calor...Vientos alisios del sureste resultaran en indice de calor
sobre lo normal a lo largo de la costa norte y sur de Puerto Rico.

.Dias dos a siete...martes a domingo

Para martes al anochecer hacia temprano el miercoles en la manana un
disturbio tropical que tiene el potencial en desarrollarse a una
tormenta tropical, se espera que se mueva a traves del Mar Caribe.
Esto aumentara el potencial de tronadas, vientos en rafagas e
inundaciones.

Un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas se espera a traves de la costa
sur de las islas el miercoles. Oleaje picado tambien se espera hasta
el miercoles al anochecer a traves de las aguas regionales.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion generalizada de observadores, sin embargo,
se exhorta a los observados a reportar inundaciones a la oficina del
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-200915-
San Tomas, San John e islas adyacentes-
Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes
del Caribe-
508 AM AST lunes 19 de junio de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones del tiempo peligrosas es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia uno...Hoy y Esta noche

.Tronadas...Existe la probabilidad de tronadas con lluvias fuertes y
rafagas de vientos breves esta tarde a traves de porciones de las
islas.

.Inundaciones...Acumulacion de agua en las carreteras y en areas de
pobre drenaje es posible con los aguaceros mas fuertes.

.Viento...Vientos sostenidos en exceso de 20 mph se esperan a traves
de la mayoria de las areas costeras de las islas y a traves de las
aguas regionales.

.Olas...Oleaje picado de hasta 6 pies se espera a traves de todas
las aguas.

.Corrientes marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas para las playas del este, norte y sur de Santa Cruz.

.Calor...Vientos alisios del sureste resultaran en indice de calor
sobre lo normal a traves del norte de las Islas Virgenes.

.Dias dos a siete...martes a domingo

Para martes al anochecer hacia temprano el miercoles en la manana un
disturbio tropical que tiene el potencial en desarrollarse a una
tormenta tropical, se espera que se mueva a traves del Mar Caribe.
Esto aumentara el potencial de tronadas, vientos en rafagas e
inundaciones.

Un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas se espera a traves de la costa
sur de las islas el miercoles. Oleaje picado tambien se espera hasta
el miercoles al anochecer a traves de las aguas regionales.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion generalizada de observadores, sin embargo,
se exhorta a los observados a reportar inundaciones a la oficina del
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.

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