Alert archive / Puerto Rico / Flash Flood Warnings in 2017

Flash Flood Warning 126, NWS JSJ

October 8, 2017

NWS JSJ issued this flash flood warning at Oct 8, 2017, 2:30 PM CDT. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 8, 2017, 2:30 PM CDT (19:30 UTC)
Expired
Oct 8, 2017, 5:00 PM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS JSJ
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The text

As transmitted.

552 
WGCA52 TJSJ 081930
FFWSJU
PRC017-054-091-143-145-082100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0126.171008T1930Z-171008T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
330 PM AST SUN OCT 8 2017

The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Vega Baja Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Florida Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Barceloneta Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Vega Alta Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Manati Municipality in Puerto Rico...

* Until 500 PM AST

* At 328 PM AST, emergency management reported flooding in Vega 
  Alta, Road 2 impassable between Barceloneta and Manati, and minor 
  flooding along road 690. Flash flooding is already occurring. 

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Florida, Vega Alta, Manati, Vega Baja, Barceloneta, Miranda,
  Pajonal, Imbery, Monserrate, Coto Norte, La Luisa, Brenas,
  Tiburones, Sabana, Bufalo, Tierras Nuevas Pon, Garrochales and
  Tierras Nuevas Poniente.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 1849 6631 1845 6632 1843 6630 1839 6630
      1837 6632 1836 6635 1833 6636 1835 6639
      1837 6640 1838 6642 1834 6659 1845 6658
      1848 6659 1851 6656

$$
2 follow-up statements
671 
WGCA52 TJSJ 082055
FFWSJU
PRC017-054-091-143-145-082200-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.W.0126.000000T0000Z-171008T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
455 PM AST SUN OCT 8 2017

The National Weather Service in San Juan has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Vega Baja Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Florida Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Barceloneta Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Vega Alta Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Manati Municipality in Puerto Rico...

* Until 600 PM AST

* At 454 PM AST, heavy rainfall continues to fall across the warned 
  area. Flash flooding is still ongoing.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Florida, Vega Alta, Manati, Vega Baja, Barceloneta, Miranda,
  Pajonal, Imbery, Monserrate, Coto Norte, La Luisa, Brenas,
  Tiburones, Sabana, Bufalo, Tierras Nuevas Pon, Garrochales and
  Tierras Nuevas Poniente.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 1849 6631 1845 6632 1843 6630 1839 6630
      1837 6632 1836 6635 1833 6636 1835 6639
      1837 6640 1838 6642 1834 6659 1845 6658
      1848 6659 1851 6656

$$
054 
WGCA72 TJSJ 082206
FFSSJU

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
606 PM AST SUN OCT 8 2017

PRC017-054-091-143-145-082216-
/O.EXP.TJSJ.FF.W.0126.000000T0000Z-171008T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Vega Baja PR-Florida PR-Barceloneta PR-Vega Alta PR-Manati PR-
606 PM AST SUN OCT 8 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR VEGA BAJA...FLORIDA...BARCELONETA...
VEGA ALTA AND MANATI MUNICIPALITIES HAS EXPIRED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 1849 6631 1845 6632 1843 6630 1839 6630
      1837 6632 1836 6635 1833 6636 1835 6639
      1837 6640 1838 6642 1834 6659 1845 6658
      1848 6659 1851 6656

$$

Hernandez

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS JSJ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Oct 8, 12:49 PM CDT, 1 hour 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 8, 12:49 PM CDT, 1 hour 41 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
149 PM AST Sun Oct 8 2017

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop across northern
portions of Puerto Rico. These will likely continue to develop and
intensify throughout the afternoon before diminishing later this
evening. A generally quiet night is in store with another round of
convection expected tomorrow. Generally E winds become more
southeasterly tomorrow. VFR conditions are expected outside of
showers/storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL/

UPDATE...
No major changes were made to the previous forecast. Still
expecting passing showers this morning across the eastern portions
of the area with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected
over interior portions of Puerto Rico this afternoon. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible with these showers and storms,
which may cause urban and small stream flooding and mudslides,
especially over the interior portions of the island.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 519 AM AST Sun Oct 8 2017/

SHORT TERM...Sunday through Tuesday.

Partly to variably cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and
the US Virgin Islands during the overnight and early morning
hours. Some light passing showers were detected over the local
waters, with a few reaching the coastal areas. Overnight
temperatures ranged from the upper 60s to mid 70s across higher
elevations with upper 70s to low 8-s across lower elevations.
Winds were light and variable.

A moist southeast wind flow will continue to prevail across the
local area today. As a result, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon along and north of the
Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico. The afternoon convection will
spread over the western interior and northwest sections of Puerto
Rico. Shower and thunderstorm activity over portions of the San
Juan Metro area cannot be ruled out. Soils are already saturated,
therefore, any prolonged period of heavy rainfall may result in
urban and stream flooding.

For Monday and Tuesday, a deep upper level trough will retrograde
southwestward and will be located in a favorable area to induce
the development of scattered to numerous showers with scattered
thunderstorms across most of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin
Islands both days. This will result in period of very heavy
rainfall across the region at times. With soils saturated and many
rivers and small streams running above normal levels, there is a
high risk of river and small stream flooding as well as mudslides
in areas of steep terrain through Tuesday.

LONG TERM...

A mid to upper level ridge is expected to build from the east by
late in the work week. Therefore, a more seasonal weather pattern
is then expected. However, lingering moisture will combine with
strong daytime heating and orographic lifting to produce some
showers and thunderstorms mainly each afternoon across the local
islands.

&&

MARINE...
Light to gentle E/SE breeze will prevail on the south side
of the subtropical ridge located across the northern Atlantic.
Showers and thunderstorms will occur each day as deep tropical
moisture remains in place. North to northeast swells will continue
to enhance local seas on the Atlantic side of the islands through
Saturday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  79  83  78 /  40  30  70  30
STT  82  80  82  80 /  30  20  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 8, 5:59 AM CDT, 8 hours 31 minutes before
Perspectivas sobre condiciones peligrosas del tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
Emitido por Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia Miami FL
651 AM AST domingo 8 de octubre de 2017

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-091100-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-
Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Aguas cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y Caribe-
651 AM AST domingo 8 de octubre de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y Esta Noche

Aguaceros y tronadas con lluvias fuertes y vientos en rafagas breves
son posibles principalmente a traves del centro y oeste interior de
Puerto Rico esta tarde. Cualquier lluvia fuerte adicional podria
causar impactos adicionales de inundaciones repentinas incluyendo
deslizamientos, especialmente sobre porciones del interior de la
isla.

Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas a lo largo de
la costa norte de Puerto Rico.

Oleaje de hasta 6 pies es posible sobre las aguas lejanas a la costa
del Atlantico al norte de PuertoRico, principalmente bajo una
marejada del noreste.

.Dias Dos a Siete...lunes a sabado

La combinacion de onda tropical con un disturbio en las capas altas
aumentara el potencial de inundaciones fuertes sobre Puerto Rico el
lunes y martes, lo que causara impactos adicionales de inundaciones
repentinas, incluyendo deslizamientos.

Es probable que un riesgo elevado de corrientes marinas continue
temprano la semana proxima a lo largo de la costa norte.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones
o corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San
Juan.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-091100-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-
Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe-
651 AM AST domingo 8 de octubre de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones del tiempo peligrosas es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y Esta Noche

Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas para la mayoria
de las playas de Santa Cruz hoy.

.Dias Dos a Siete...lunes a sabado

Es probable que un riesgo elevado de corrientes marinas continue
hasta el domingo para Santa Cruz.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

Activacion de observadores no sera necesaria.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 8, 12:43 PM CDT, 1 hour 47 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
143 PM AST SUN OCT 8 2017

PRZ001-005-006-081830-
San Juan and Vicinity-North Central-Central Interior-
143 PM AST SUN OCT 8 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT VEGA BAJA...NORTHWESTERN SAN
JUAN...NORTHEASTERN MOROVIS...GUAYNABO...NORTHEASTERN NARANJITO...
VEGA ALTA...DORADO...BAYAMON...NORTHERN COROZAL...TOA BAJA...CATANO
AND TOA ALTA MUNICIPALITIES...

At 143 PM AST, a strong thunderstorm was located over Rio Lajas, or
over Toa Alta, moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
San Juan, Guaynabo, Sabana Seca, Catano, Toa Baja, Vega Alta,
Corozal, Naranjito, Morovis, Toa Alta, Vega Baja, Bayamon, Dorado,
Miranda, San Jose, H. Rivera Colon, Galateo, Monserrate, Candelaria
Arenas and Brenas.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 1849 6618 1847 6616 1849 6613 1848 6608
      1830 6610 1830 6641 1851 6641
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 267DEG 8KT 1841 6627
Special weather statement, Oct 8, 12:46 PM CDT, 1 hour 44 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
146 PM AST SUN OCT 8 2017

PRZ005-006-009-081830-
North Central-Central Interior-Western Interior-
146 PM AST SUN OCT 8 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN VEGA BAJA...FLORIDA...
BARCELONETA...NORTHWESTERN MOROVIS...ARECIBO...NORTH CENTRAL
JAYUYA...NORTHERN CIALES...NORTHEASTERN UTUADO AND MANATI
MUNICIPALITIES...

At 146 PM AST, a strong thunderstorm was located over Pajonal, or
over Florida. the storm is nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Arecibo, Florida, Manati, Barceloneta, Ciales, Morovis, Utuado, Vega
Baja, Pajonal, Bajadero, La Alianza, Imbery, Barahona, Coto Norte,
Franquez, La Luisa, Tiburones, Animas, Bufalo and Tierras Nuevas Pon.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 1848 6648 1849 6644 1849 6641 1830 6641
      1826 6670 1849 6670 1851 6661
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 089DEG 4KT 1840 6657
Special weather statement, Oct 8, 12:58 PM CDT, 1 hour 32 minutes before
Comunicado Especial sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
143 PM AST domingo 8 de octubre de 2017

PRZ001-005-006-081830-
San Juan y Vecindad-Norte Central-Central Interior-
143 PM AST sabado 7 de octubre de 2017

...UNA TRONADA FUERTE AFECTARA LOS SIGUIENTES MUNICIPIOS DE PUERTO
RICO...VEGA BAJA...SAN JUAN...MOROVIS...GUAYNABO...NARANJITO...VEGA
ALTA...DORADO...BAYAMON...COROZAL...TOA BAJA...CATANO Y TOA ALTA...

A las 1:43 PM AST, una fuerte tronada estaba localizada sobre Rio
Lajas, o sobre Toa Alta, moviendose hacia el este a 10 mph.

Vientos en rafagas de 30 mph son posibles con esta tronada.

Lugares que seran afectados incluyen...San Juan, Guaynabo, Sabana
Seca, Catano, Toa Baja, Vega Alta, Corozal, Naranjito, Morovis, Toa
Alta, Vega Baja, Bayamon, Dorado, Miranda, San Jose, H. Rivera
Colon, Galateo, Monserrate, Candelaria Arenas y Brenas.

Lluvias torrenciales tambien estan ocurriendo con estas tormentas, y
podrian causar inundaciones localizdas. No intente conducir su
vehiculo a traves de carreteras inundadas.
Special weather statement, Oct 8, 1:00 PM CDT, 1 hour 30 minutes before
Comunicado Especial sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
146 PM AST domingo 8 de octubre de 2017

PRZ005-006-009-081830-
Norte Central-Central Interior-Western Interior-
146 PM AST sabado 7 de octubre de 2017

...UNA TRONADA FUERTE AFECTARA LOS SIGUIENTES MUNICIPIOS DE PUERTO
RICO...VEGA BAJA...FLORIDA...BARCELONETA...MOROVIS...ARECIBO...
JAYUYA...CIALES...UTUADO Y MANATI...

A las 1:46 PM AST, una fuerte tronada estaba localizada sobre
Pajonal, o sobre Florida. La tormenta esta casi estacionaria.

Vientos en rafagas de 30 mph son posibles con esta tronada.

Lugares que seran afectados incluyen...San Juan, Guaynabo, Sabana
Seca, Catano, Toa Baja, Vega Alta, Corozal, Naranjito, Morovis, Toa
Alta, Vega Baja, Bayamon, Dorado, Miranda, San Jose, H. Rivera
Colon, Galateo, Monserrate, Candelaria Arenas y Brenas.

Lluvias torrenciales tambien estan ocurriendo con estas tormentas, y
podrian causar inundaciones localizdas. No intente conducir su
vehiculo a traves de carreteras inundadas.
Special weather statement, Oct 8, 1:25 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
225 PM AST SUN OCT 8 2017

PRZ001-002-004-005-081915-
San Juan and Vicinity-North Central-Northeast-Eastern Interior-
225 PM AST SUN OCT 8 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CAROLINA...
NORTHWESTERN LOIZA...NORTH CENTRAL CAGUAS...NORTHEASTERN NARANJITO...
BAYAMON...EASTERN TOA BAJA...TRUJILLO ALTO...SAN JUAN...NORTHWESTERN
GURABO...GUAYNABO...NORTHEASTERN DORADO...CATANO AND SOUTHEASTERN TOA
ALTA MUNICIPALITIES...

At 225 PM AST, a strong thunderstorm was located over Catano, moving
east at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
San Juan, Trujillo Alto, Carolina, Guaynabo, Sabana Seca, Catano,
Bayamon, Levittown, Candelaria Arenas and Candelaria.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 1847 6597 1847 6596 1830 6597 1831 6621
      1848 6621 1849 6617 1847 6616 1849 6614
      1849 6613
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 270DEG 6KT 1842 6614

The office that day

Everything else NWS JSJ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 7, 7:40 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryJSJ3 hr
Oct 7, 8:07 PM CDTAreal Flood WarningJSJ3 hr
Oct 7, 8:13 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryJSJ3 hr
Oct 7, 10:01 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryJSJ3 hr
Oct 8, 12:43 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJSJ47 min
Oct 8, 12:46 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJSJ44 min
Oct 8, 1:25 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJSJ50 min
Oct 8, 2:13 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryJSJ3 hr
Oct 8, 2:38 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJSJ52 min
Oct 8, 2:47 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJSJ43 min
Oct 8, 3:57 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryJSJ5 hr
Oct 8, 4:19 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ86 min
Oct 8, 4:33 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ87 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Puerto Rico, 2017Every flash flood warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.