Flash Flood Warning 118, NWS JSJ

342 
WGCA72 TJSJ 292140
FFSSJU

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
540 PM AST FRI SEP 29 2017

PRC003-005-011-027-071-083-093-097-099-115-117-121-131-292149-
/O.EXP.TJSJ.FF.W.0118.000000T0000Z-170929T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sabana Grande PR-Las Marias PR-San Sebastian PR-Isabela PR-Moca PR-
Quebradillas PR-Anasco PR-Camuy PR-Maricao PR-Mayaguez PR-Rincon PR-
Aguada PR-Aguadilla PR-
540 PM AST FRI SEP 29 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN SABANA GRANDE...LAS MARIAS...
SAN SEBASTIAN...ISABELA...MOCA...QUEBRADILLAS...ANASCO...WESTERN
CAMUY...MARICAO...MAYAGUEZ...RINCON...AGUADA AND AGUADILLA
MUNICIPALITIES HAS EXPIRED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 1851 6689 1850 6688 1837 6688 1831 6691
      1824 6691 1816 6689 1814 6698 1817 6705
      1817 6708 1815 6709 1815 6716 1817 6718
      1811 6718 1810 6721 1817 6720 1821 6717
      1836 6728 1841 6718 1849 6718 1852 6712

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
120 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are developing and ongoing across the
central and western interior sections of PR moving west towards
JMZ-JBQ as well as JPS. Additional convection is expected across
the island this afternoon. Upper trough is moving west wand away
from the islands with deeper moisture moving towards the islands
per WV imagery. The moisture will reach the USVI first tonight
with VCSH possible then towards morning across PR. VFR outside of
storms and tempo MVFR underneath and around storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL/

UPDATE...
Made some minor tweaks to the forecast mainly Sky/Pop/Temp. Rain
chances will increase beginning late morning. Short range models
develop scattered showers and storms in the next few hours with
locally heavy rainfall possible. Flash Flood Watch and Rip Current
Statement look good. Updates sent.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL/

AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFs....Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
increase in coverage through the morning and afternoon hours.
Predominate VFR will give way to tempo MVFR as convection develops
and impacts the terminals. Light to moderate east winds will be
the rule, perhaps gusty in and around convection. Indications are
that convection will last into the evening hours across VI and
towards the end of the TAF period invading PR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL/

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

SHORT TERM...
Current satellite imagery shows an upper-level low moving slowly
westward across the northern Caribbean Sea with a large plume of
tropical moisture surging northward across the Leeward Islands
this morning. Radar imagery from the northern islands showed
convection earlier from Antigua to St. Kitts, but they have mostly
died out since. As mid-level winds turn southeasterly this
morning, deep moisture will overspread the U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico through the evening with precipitation chances
quickly increasing throughout the day and into Saturday. Locally
heavy rainfall is expected and additional flash flooding is
possible, which would hinder recovery efforts. A Flash Flood Watch
continues for the entire forecast area. See the Hydrology section
for additional information and potential impacts.

There is a high risk of rip currents through Friday along the
northern Atlantic coastline of Puerto Rico and St. Croix with a
moderate risk on the southern coast. The Rip Current Statement
will continue through Friday afternoon due to dangerous northerly
swells continuing.

LONG TERM...
As the upper-level low continues westward away from Puerto Rico,
deep tropical moisture will remain in place through Monday,
keeping the chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
Though the best forcing will be associated with the upper low
this weekend, locally heavy rainfall potential will continue
through early next week, but there is lower confidence on amounts
at this point. The rest of the week, modest moisture from the
surface to around 700mb will warrant generally 30 to 40% PoPs each
day. Light surface winds will turn to the ESE/SE Thursday and
Friday, putting the best moisture convergence in the
western/interior portions of Puerto Rico and in the higher terrain.

Temperatures will be near or below normal through much of the
forecast period with expected cloud cover and precipitation
chances.

AVIATION...
Moisture will increase substantially Friday morning through the
afternoon with showers and thunderstorms expected to increase in
coverage across much of the area. Have kept VFR conditions
prevailing across the western areas on this package but MVFR or
lower ceilings will certainly be possible, especially across the
eastern and interior portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands with periods of heavy rainfall also possible.

HYDROLOGY...
Deep tropical moisture will overspread the islands this morning
from east to west and continuing this weekend. Rainfall amounts
of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are likely each day
with precipitable water values nearing or exceeding 2.00". Soils
are already saturated and most of the rivers and small streams are
running above or well above normal levels, therefore there is a
high risk of river and small stream flooding as well as mudslides
in areas of steep terrain. Urban flooding is also likely across
low-lying areas as well as poor drainage areas where water pumps
are not working at full capacity.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH has been issued for all islands beginning
Friday morning.

MARINE...
Moderate easterly winds and seas will dominate across the area
through the weekend. Northerly swells continue to push into the
northern sections of the islands where small craft will need to
exercise caution. Showers and thunderstorms will become numerous
beginning Friday with winds and seas locally higher in and around
stronger convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  83  79  82  80 /  60  40  70  50
STT  82  80  81  80 /  70  50  70  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for Mayaguez and
     Vicinity-North Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and
     Vicinity-Southeast-Western Interior.

     Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for Central Interior-
     Culebra-Eastern Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-North
     Central-Northeast-Northwest-Ponce and Vicinity-San Juan and
     Vicinity-Southeast-Southwest-Vieques-Western Interior.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for St Croix.

     Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for St Croix-
     St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

AM...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for Coastal Waters
     OF Southwestern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
     Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
     Southern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern
     USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

&&

AVIATION...99

Perspectivas sobre condiciones peligrosas del tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
Emitido por Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia Miami FL
551 AM AST viernes 29 de septiembre de 2017

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-301000-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-
Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Aguas cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y Caribe-
551 AM AST viernes 29 de septiembre de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y Esta Noche

Un Aviso de Inundaciones Repentinas permanece en efecto para la
Represa Guajataca debido a inundaciones repentinas potencialmente
peligrosas rio abajo del Rio Guajataca.

Una Vigilancia de Inundaciones Repentinas esta en efecto esta manana
debido a las lluvias fuertes anticipadas hasta el fin de semana.
Cantidades de lluvia de 2 a 4 pulgadas con cantidades mas altas
localmente son probables. Esto empeorara la situacion actual en
Puerto Rico y resultara en preocupaciones adicionales de
inundaciones.

.Corrientes marinas...Existe un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas
para la mayor parte de las playas del norte y noroeste de Puerto
Rico, excepto a lo largo de la costa sur y sureste, donde existe
riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas.

.Dias Dos a Siete...sabado a jueves

Una Vigilancia de Inundaciones Repentinas continua en efecto hasta
el sabado en la noche debido a fuertes lluvias anticipadas.
Acumulaciones de lluvia de 2 a 4 pulgadas con acumulaciones mas
altas localmente son posibles el sabado y domingo. Esto empeorara la
situacion actual en Puerto Rico y resultara en preocupaciones
adicionales de inundaciones.

Riesgo elevado de corrientes marinas continuara durante el fin de
semana.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones
y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San
Juan.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-301000-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del
Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe-
551 AM AST viernes 29 de septiembre de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones del tiempo peligrosas es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y Esta Noche

.Corrientes marinas...Existe riesgo alto de corrientes marinas
para porciones del este de Santa Cruz. En el resto del area, riesgo
moderado de corrientes marinas continuara.

.Dias Dos a Siete...sabado a jueves

Una Vigilancia de Inundaciones Repentinas esta en efecto debido a
fuertes lluvias anticipadas durante el fin de semana. Acumulaciones
de lluvia de 2 a 4 pulgadas cada dia con acumulaciones localmente
mas altas son probables.

Riesgo elevado de corrientes marinas pudiera continuar para la mayor
parte de las playas hasta el fin de semana.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones
y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San
Juan.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
109 PM AST FRI SEP 29 2017

PRZ006-007-009-291815-
Central Interior-Western Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-
109 PM AST FRI SEP 29 2017

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
VILLALBA... NORTHEASTERN GUAYANILLA...NORTHWESTERN
PONCE...JAYUYA...CENTRAL CIALES...SOUTHWESTERN
OROCOVIS...SOUTHEASTERN UTUADO...NORTHWESTERN JUANA DIAZ...ADJUNTAS
AND NORTHERN PENUELAS MUNICIPALITIES...

At 108 PM AST, a showers and thunderstorms was located over Jayuya,
moving west at 25 mph.

Winds of 30 to 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jayuya, Adjuntas and Santo Domingo.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 1830 6648 1814 6646 1807 6675 1822 6680
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 068DEG 22KT 1818 6660

Comunicado Especial sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
106 PM AST viernes 29 de septiembre de 2017

PRZ007-009>011-291800-
Mayaguez y Vecindad-Oeste Interior-Suroeste-Ponce y Vecindad-
106 PM AST viernes 29 de septiembre de 2017

...UNA AREA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS AFECTARA EL NOROESTE DE SABANA
GRANDE...LAS MARIAS...SUR DE LARES...SUR DE SAN SEBASTIAN...
ADJUNTAS... NORTE DE HORMIGUEROS...SUR DE MOCA...NORTE DE
YAUCO...ANASCO... NORTE CENTRAL DE GUAYANILLA...NORTE CENTRAL DE
CABO ROJO...MARICAO... MAYAGUEZ...NORTE DE SAN GERMAN...OESTE
CENTRAL DE UTUADO...SURESTE DE AGUADA Y NOROESTE DE PENUELAS...

A la 1:02 PM AST, aguaceros y tronadas estaban localizadas a 7
millas al noreste de Sabana Grande, moviendose hacia el oeste a 15
mph.

Vientos de 30 a 40 mph son posibles con estas tormentas.

Lluvias torrenciales tambien estan ocurriendo con estas tormentas, y
podrian causar inundaciones localizdas. No intente conducir su
vehiculo a traves de carreteras inundadas.

ICOLONPAGAN

Comunicado Especial sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
109 PM AST viernes 29 de septiembre de 2017

PRZ006-007-009-291815-
Mayaguez y Vecindad-Oeste Interior-Suroeste-Ponce y Vecindad-
109 PM AST viernes 29 de septiembre de 2017

...UNA AREA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS AFECTARA EL NOROESTE DE
VILLALBA...NORESTE DE GUAYANILLA...NOROESTE DE PONCE...
JAYUYA...CENTRO DE CIALES...SUROESTE DE OROCOVIS...SURESTE DE
UTUADO...NOROESTE DE JUANA DIAZ...ADJUNTAS Y NORTE DE PENUELAS...

A la 1:08 PM AST, aguaceros y tronadas estaban localizadas sobre
Jayuya, moviendose hacia el oeste a 25 mph.

Vientos de 30 a 40 mph son posibles con estas tormentas.

Lluvias torrenciales tambien estan ocurriendo con estas tormentas, y
podrian causar inundaciones localizdas. No intente conducir su
vehiculo a traves de carreteras inundadas.

ICOLONPAGAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
212 PM AST FRI SEP 29 2017

PRZ008>011-291915-
Northwest-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Western Interior-Southwest-
212 PM AST FRI SEP 29 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LAS MARIAS...SAN SEBASTIAN...
SOUTHEASTERN ISABELA...NORTH CENTRAL HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...
SOUTHEASTERN QUEBRADILLAS...ANASCO...NORTHERN CABO ROJO...
SOUTHWESTERN CAMUY...WESTERN MARICAO...MAYAGUEZ...RINCON...
NORTHEASTERN SAN GERMAN...AGUADA AND SOUTHERN AGUADILLA
MUNICIPALITIES...

At 211 PM AST, strong thunderstormS was located over Hato Arriba, or
near San Sebastian, moving west at 20 mph.

Winds of 30 to 40 mph, frequent lightning, and torrential rainfall
are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Aguadilla, Aguada, Rincon, Moca, Las Marias, Mayaguez, Anasco, San
Sebastian, La Playa, Hato Arriba, Caban, Luyando, Aceitunas, Maricao,
Stella, Espino and Juncal.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 1838 6690 1815 6697 1816 6720 1817 6720
      1821 6717 1836 6728 1837 6728 1843 6717
      1849 6718
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 110DEG 15KT 1832 6705

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
214 PM AST FRI SEP 29 2017

PRZ005-008-009-291845-
Northwest-North Central-Western Interior-
214 PM AST FRI SEP 29 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LAS MARIAS...
LARES...CAMUY...NORTHEASTERN MARICAO...NORTHWESTERN BARCELONETA...
EASTERN SAN SEBASTIAN...ARECIBO...HATILLO...UTUADO...NORTHERN
ADJUNTAS AND EASTERN QUEBRADILLAS MUNICIPALITIES...

At 213 PM AST, strong thunderstormS was located near Rafael Capo, or
near Utuado, moving northwest at 30 mph.

Winds of 30 to 40 mph, frequent lightning, and torrential rainfall
are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Arecibo, Camuy, Utuado, Lares, Hatillo, Rafael Capo, Bajadero, Rafael
Gonzalez, Juncal, Quebrada, Cayuco, Animas, Carrizales, Piedra Gorda,
Sabana Hoyos and Corcovado.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 1850 6658 1818 6670 1819 6694 1851 6691
      1849 6672 1851 6663
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 112DEG 27KT 1833 6676

Comunicado Especial sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
212 PM AST viernes 29 de septiembre de 2017

PRZ008>011-291915-
Mayaguez y Vecindad-Oeste Interior-Suroeste-Ponce y Vecindad-
212 PM AST viernes 29 de septiembre de 2017

...TRONADAS FUERTES AFECTARAN A LAS MARIAS...SAN SEBASTIAN...
SURESTE DE ISABELA...NORTE CENTRAL DE HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...
SURESTE DE QUEBRADILLAS...ANASCO...NORTE DE CABO ROJO...
SUROESTE DE CAMUY...OESTE DE MARICAO...MAYAGUEZ...RINCON...
NORESTE DE SAN GERMAN...AGUADA Y SUR DE AGUADILLA...

A la 2:11 PM AST, tronadas fuertes estaban localizadas sobre Hato
Arriba cerca de San Sebastian, moviendose hacia el oeste a 20 mph.

Vientos de 30 a 40 mph, rayos frecuentes, y lluvias torrenciales son
posibles con estas tormentas.

Lluvias torrenciales tambien estan ocurriendo con estas tormentas, y
podrian causar inundaciones localizdas. No intente conducir su
vehiculo a traves de carreteras inundadas.

Rayos frecuentes de nube a suelo ocurren con esta tormenta. Rayos
pueden afectar hasta 10 millas de la tronadas. Busque refugio seguro
dentro de un edificio o vehiculo.

ICOLONPAGAN