Alert archive / Puerto Rico / Flash Flood Warnings in 2017

Flash Flood Warning 108, NWS JSJ

September 21, 2017

NWS JSJ issued this flash flood warning at Sep 21, 2017, 6:54 AM CDT. It was in force for 7 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 21, 2017, 6:54 AM CDT (11:54 UTC)
Expired
Sep 21, 2017, 2:00 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
NWS JSJ
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The text

As transmitted.

658 
WGCA52 TJSJ 211154
FFWSJU
PRC007-009-015-019-021-025-029-031-033-035-037-041-043-045-047-051-
053-057-061-063-069-075-077-085-087-089-091-095-101-103-105-107-109-
119-123-127-129-133-135-137-139-143-145-149-151-211500-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0108.170921T1154Z-170921T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
754 AM AST THU SEP 21 2017

The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Aguas Buenas Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Carolina Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Loiza Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Guayama Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Yabucoa Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Coamo Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Luquillo Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Northeastern Morovis Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Cayey Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Naranjito Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Vega Alta Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Bayamon Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Southeastern Orocovis Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Toa Baja Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  San Lorenzo Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Trujillo Alto Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Comerio Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  San Juan Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Gurabo Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Canovanas Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Las Piedras Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Barranquitas Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Cidra Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Santa Isabel Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Patillas Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Northeastern Manati Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Ceiba Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Rio Grande Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Fajardo Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Naguabo Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Arroyo Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Caguas Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Juncos Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Maunabo Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Humacao Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  East central Villalba Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Vega Baja Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Guaynabo Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Dorado Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Salinas Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Corozal Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Southeastern Juana Diaz Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Catano Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Aibonito Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Toa Alta Municipality in Puerto Rico...

* Until 1100 AM AST

* At 753 AM AST, satellite estimates indicated thunderstorms
  producing heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is
  expected to continue in the affected areas.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  San Juan, Fajardo, Guayama, Coamo, Santa Isabel, Gurabo, Canovanas,
  Guaynabo, Sabana Seca, Vega Alta, Naranjito, Humacao, Trujillo
  Alto, San Lorenzo, Yabucoa, Naguabo, Barranquitas, Maunabo, Las
  Piedras and Cayey.

Excessive rainfall over the warned area will cause mud slides near
steep terrain. The mud slide can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and
other loose materials.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 1847 6590 1838 6569 1838 6555 1834 6558
      1837 6560 1829 6562 1820 6560 1817 6572
      1800 6583 1790 6623 1796 6633 1794 6639
      1798 6645 1802 6642 1817 6643 1817 6638
      1824 6633 1837 6644 1849 6644

$$

RAG
2 follow-up statements
519 
WGCA52 TJSJ 211451
FFWSJU
PRC007-009-015-019-021-025-029-031-033-035-037-041-043-045-047-051-
053-057-061-063-069-075-077-085-087-089-091-095-101-103-105-107-109-
119-123-127-129-133-135-137-139-143-145-149-151-211900-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.W.0108.000000T0000Z-170921T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
1051 AM AST THU SEP 21 2017

The National Weather Service in San Juan has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Aguas Buenas Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Carolina Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Loiza Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Guayama Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Yabucoa Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Coamo Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Luquillo Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Northeastern Morovis Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Cayey Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Naranjito Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Vega Alta Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Bayamon Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Southeastern Orocovis Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Toa Baja Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  San Lorenzo Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Trujillo Alto Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Comerio Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  San Juan Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Gurabo Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Canovanas Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Las Piedras Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Barranquitas Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Cidra Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Santa Isabel Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Patillas Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Northeastern Manati Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Ceiba Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Rio Grande Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Fajardo Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Naguabo Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Arroyo Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Caguas Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Juncos Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Maunabo Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Humacao Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  East central Villalba Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Vega Baja Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Guaynabo Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Dorado Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Salinas Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Corozal Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Southeastern Juana Diaz Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Catano Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Aibonito Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Toa Alta Municipality in Puerto Rico...

* Until 300 PM AST

* At 1050 AM AST, satellite estimates indicated thunderstorms
  producing heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is
  already occurring.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  San Juan, Fajardo, Guayama, Coamo, Santa Isabel, Gurabo, Canovanas,
  Guaynabo, Sabana Seca, Vega Alta, Naranjito, Humacao, Trujillo
  Alto, San Lorenzo, Yabucoa, Naguabo, Barranquitas, Maunabo, Las
  Piedras and Cayey.

Excessive rainfall over the warned area will cause mud slides near
steep terrain. The mud slide can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and
other loose materials.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 1847 6590 1838 6569 1838 6555 1834 6558
      1837 6560 1829 6562 1820 6560 1817 6572
      1800 6583 1790 6623 1796 6633 1794 6639
      1798 6645 1802 6642 1817 6643 1817 6638
      1824 6633 1837 6644 1849 6644

$$

RAG
893 
WGCA72 TJSJ 211741
FFSSJU

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
141 PM AST THU SEP 21 2017

PRC007-009-015-019-021-025-029-031-033-035-037-041-043-045-047-051-
053-057-061-063-069-075-077-085-087-089-091-095-101-103-105-107-109-
119-123-127-129-133-135-137-139-143-145-149-151-211900-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.W.0108.000000T0000Z-170921T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Aguas Buenas PR-Carolina PR-Loiza PR-Guayama PR-Yabucoa PR-Coamo PR-
Luquillo PR-Morovis PR-Cayey PR-Naranjito PR-Vega Alta PR-Bayamon PR-
Orocovis PR-Toa Baja PR-San Lorenzo PR-Trujillo Alto PR-Comerio PR-
San Juan PR-Gurabo PR-Canovanas PR-Las Piedras PR-Barranquitas PR-
Cidra PR-Santa Isabel PR-Patillas PR-Manati PR-Ceiba PR-
Rio Grande PR-Fajardo PR-Naguabo PR-Arroyo PR-Caguas PR-Juncos PR-
Maunabo PR-Humacao PR-Villalba PR-Vega Baja PR-Guaynabo PR-Dorado PR-
Salinas PR-Corozal PR-Juana Diaz PR-Catano PR-Aibonito PR-
Toa Alta PR-
141 PM AST THU SEP 21 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM AST FOR
AGUAS BUENAS...CAROLINA...LOIZA...GUAYAMA...YABUCOA...COAMO...
LUQUILLO...NORTHEASTERN MOROVIS...CAYEY...NARANJITO...VEGA ALTA...
BAYAMON...SOUTHEASTERN OROCOVIS...TOA BAJA...SAN LORENZO...TRUJILLO
ALTO...COMERIO...SAN JUAN...GURABO...CANOVANAS...LAS PIEDRAS...
BARRANQUITAS...CIDRA...SANTA ISABEL...PATILLAS...NORTHEASTERN
MANATI...CEIBA...RIO GRANDE...FAJARDO...NAGUABO...ARROYO...CAGUAS...
JUNCOS...MAUNABO...HUMACAO...EAST CENTRAL VILLALBA...VEGA BAJA...
GUAYNABO...DORADO...SALINAS...COROZAL...SOUTHEASTERN JUANA DIAZ...
CATANO...AIBONITO AND TOA ALTA MUNICIPALITIES...

At 140 PM AST, satellite indicated heavy rain is possible as 
thunderstorms develop near Comerio and Cidra.

Excessive rainfall over the warned area will cause mud slides near
steep terrain. The mud slide can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and
other loose materials.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
San Juan, Fajardo, Guayama, Coamo, Santa Isabel, Gurabo, Canovanas,
Guaynabo, Sabana Seca, Vega Alta, Naranjito, Humacao, Trujillo Alto,
San Lorenzo, Yabucoa, Naguabo, Barranquitas, Maunabo, Las Piedras and
Cayey.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 1847 6590 1838 6569 1838 6555 1834 6558
      1837 6560 1829 6562 1820 6560 1817 6572
      1800 6583 1790 6623 1796 6633 1794 6639
      1798 6645 1802 6642 1817 6643 1817 6638
      1824 6633 1837 6644 1849 6644

$$

RAG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS JSJ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 21, 4:35 AM CDT, 2 hours 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 21, 4:35 AM CDT, 2 hours 19 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
535 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...As of 5 am, Hurricane Maria was located around 70
miles north of Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic. The
hurricane is expected to continue to move further away from Puerto
Rico and USVI today, with the strongest winds gradually
diminishing across the region later this morning. However, breezy
southerly conditions will continue into at least this evening,
and likely continue across the higher elevations through the day
on Friday.

The persistent heavy rainbands that have been lashing the western
side of PR overnight are expected to also lift north and west of
the island later this morning. While some areas may see a break in
precip, especially this morning, the concern for the remainder of
the day, and through the next few days, will be for more heavy
rainfall. Deep tropical moisture remains across the region, which
in combination with the southerly flow will lead to enhanced
rainfall along the southern slopes of PR, and across the south
side of the St Thomas/St John. Coverage and rainfall amounts are
likely to be higher during the afternoon/evening as less cloud
cover promotes some diurnal enhancement.

Any additional rainfall will aggravate the ongoing record
flooding along most of the rivers . While breaks in the rain may
allow for a brief respite, expect additional rapid rises with any
rainfall along with mudslides. Currently the Flash Flood Watch
continues through Friday afternoon, but may need to be extended if
the flow pattern holds through the weekend.

The Atlantic ridge begins to rebuild into mid next week, allowing
for a re-establishment of easterly trades. Models are in
agreement in showing a SAL layer arriving by Wednesday, which
should lead to much lower shower activity, potentially isolated at
best.

&&

.AVIATION...Hurricane Maria will gradually pull away to the
northeast through Thursday with conditions slowly improving. Still
widespread MVFR with IFR/LIFR likely in heavier showers,
especially across the Puerto Rico terminals. Winds gusting to 40
kts at times will ease and much lighter wind speeds expected by
Thursday evening. USVI terminals will see conditions improving
more rapidly with more scattered showers possible through the
period. AMD NOT SKED remains for all terminals, continue to check
with authorities for airport closures.

&&

.MARINE...Hurricane Maria will continue moving away from the
local waters allowing the ongoing tropical storm force winds with
occasional hurricane force gusts to subside in the the waters
northwest of Puerto Rico and in the northern Mona Passage by late
morning. Elsewhere a Small Craft Advisory is in effect with south
winds of 20 to 30 knots slowly lessening late this evening. More
moderate south-southeast flow is expected through the weekend with
seas continuing to subside.

Showers with periodic thunderstorms with heavy rain and locally
higher winds and waves are possible through this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  83  77  88  78 /  40  20  30  30
STT  82  81  85  80 /  50  80  80  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Central Interior-
     Culebra-Eastern Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-North
     Central-Northeast-Northwest-Ponce and Vicinity-San Juan and
     Vicinity-Southeast-Southwest-Vieques-Western Interior.

VI...Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for St Croix-
     St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST this afternoon for
     St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

AM...Hurricane Warning for Atlantic Waters of Puerto Rico and USVI
     from 10 NM to 19.5N-Mona Passage Southward to 17N.

	 Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST this afternoon for
     Anegada Passage Southward to 17N-Caribbean Waters of Puerto Rico
	 from 10 NM to 17N-Coastal Waters OF Northwestern Puerto Rico out
	 10 NM- Coastal Waters OF Southwestern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-
	 Coastal Waters of Northern Puerto Rico out 10 NM- Coastal Waters
	 of Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM- Coastal Waters of Southern
	 Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern USVI Vieques and
	 Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.
&&

ALM/JDW
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 21, 4:07 AM CDT, 2 hours 47 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service MIAMI FL
507 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-220915-
San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior-
North Central-Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-Nortwest-
Western Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Southwest-Culebra-Vieques-
The nearshore and off shore Atlantic and Caribbean Coastal Waters-
507 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Puerto Rico and the adjacent
Atlantic Coastal Waters.

.Day One...Today and Tonight

...A hurricane warning remains in effect for the offshore Atlantic
Waters and the Mona Passage...

...A small craft advisory is in effect for all near shore and coastal
waters...

...A flash flood watch remains in effect...

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-220915-
St. Thomas St. John adjacent Islands-St Croix-
Nearshore Atlantic and adjacent Caribbean Coastal Waters-
507 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the U.S. Virgin Islands and the
ADJACENT Coastal Waters.

.Day One...Today and Tonight

.Days Two through Seven...Friday through Wednesday

...A flash flood watch remains in effect...

..A small craft advisory is in effect for all waters...

JDW

The office that day

Everything else NWS JSJ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 20, 7:05 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ4 hr
Sep 20, 7:26 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ4 hr
Sep 20, 7:30 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ4 hr
Sep 20, 7:32 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ4 hr
Sep 20, 7:59 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ4 hr
Sep 20, 9:25 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ5 hr
Sep 20, 9:29 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ5 hr
Sep 20, 9:42 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ5 hr
Sep 20, 10:40 PM CDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyJSJ3 hr
Sep 20, 10:43 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ9 hr
Sep 20, 10:45 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ5 hr
Sep 20, 10:52 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ5 hr
Sep 20, 10:56 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ5 hr
Sep 20, 10:59 PM CDTSmall Craft AdvisoryJSJ52 hr
Sep 20, 11:03 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ5 hr
Sep 20, 11:20 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ5 hr
Sep 21, 1:39 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ7 hr
Sep 21, 2:20 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ5 hr
Sep 21, 2:25 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ5 hr
Sep 21, 2:27 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ5 hr
Sep 21, 3:35 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ3 hr
Sep 21, 3:45 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ4 hr
Sep 21, 3:50 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ4 hr
Sep 21, 3:53 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ3 hr
Sep 21, 4:09 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ3 hr
Sep 21, 7:00 AM CDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyJSJ7 hr
Sep 21, 7:58 AM CDTAreal Flood WarningJSJ6 hr
Sep 21, 8:30 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningJSJ2 hr
Sep 21, 10:20 AM CDTTropical Storm WarningJSJ5 hr
Sep 21, 10:27 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningJSJ63 min
Sep 21, 11:30 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningJSJ90 min
Sep 21, 12:55 PM CDTSpecial Marine WarningJSJ2 hr
Sep 21, 1:55 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ3 hr
Sep 21, 1:57 PM CDTAreal Flood WarningJSJ6 hr
Sep 21, 2:01 PM CDTAreal Flood WarningJSJ6 hr
Sep 21, 4:57 PM CDTAreal Flood WarningJSJ3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Puerto Rico, 2017Every flash flood warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.