Areal Flood Warning 22, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
932 PM AST Wed Sep 6 2017

.UPDATE...Hurricane Irma is still a category 5 hurricane, but is
now moving away from Puerto Rico on a course of 290 degrees at 16
mph or 14 knots. Dangerous winds and seas continue around its
core which was about 56 miles north of Toa Baja at 9 PM AST. The
heaviest rains have moved offshore now, but many rivers remain in
flood stage and some on the north coast are still rising. Their
rises should be fairly limited now, and most will crest within 3
hours. Little change to the overall forecast was made, with
hurricane Irma following the forecast track relatively closely.
Conditions will improve slowly at first and then more rapidly
tomorrow. Nevertheless the danger of flooding will continue as the
first part of Irma's split tail over the area tomorrow and the
second part passes over on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Gradually improving conditions expected at all of the
terminals as Hurricane Irma moves out of the region.  At TJSJ
winds will slowly back from the southwest to the south and then
southeast through the forecast period.  Winds will also decrease
from around 30 knots to around 15 knots by 15z tomorrow.  The
other terminals in Puerto Rico will see the same changes in
winds with TJMZ and TJBQ experiencing a decrease in winds to
15 to 20 knots by 20z tomorrow.  Any lingering MVFR and IFR
visibility and ceiling restrictions should come to an end by
12z at all of the terminals.  At TIST and TISX, a prevailing south
to southeast wind of 20 to 25 knots will diminish to around 15
knots by 15z tomorrow. At TNCM and TKPK, lighter southeast flow of
10 to 15 knots can be expected through the forecast period. VFR
conditions will generally prevail at all of these terminals.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will begin improving as Irma leaves the area. Yet
very dangerous conditions with wave heights of 23 to 40 feet will
be present in the vicinity of the hurricane in our outer Atlantic
waters until Irma leaves. Seas are expected to fall below 7 feet
on Friday afternoon for just a matter of hours until waves from
hurricane Jose arrive from the east southeast. Seas could rise to
more than 12 feet by Saturday night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM AST Wed Sep 6 2017/

SYNOPSIS...Category 5 Hurricane Irma dominates the weather
picture today and tomorrow. Outer rainbands from hurricane Jose
(1135 miles east of the lesser Antilles) will arrive on Saturday,
but hurricane Jose will pass north of Puerto Rico by some 400
miles. Tropical moisture in the wake of hurricane Jose will
continue to affect the area through mid-week next week.

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...
Tropical and Hurricane force winds are expected across the U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico including the islands of Culebra
and Vieques this afternoon and evening. The dangerous category 5
Hurricane Irma is moving just to the north of Saint Thomas and
expected to move to the west northwest at 16 mph per latest
bulletin. This is a dangerous hurricane moving across the area and
weather conditions will continue to deteriorate late this
afternoon across the islands of Culebra and Vieques and the
eastern part of Puerto Rico and rest of the region in the evening
and continuing through the overnight hours. Irma is expected to
continue to move west northwest overnight through Thursday across
the Atlantic waters and away from the area. This is a
catastrophic situation as category 5 Hurricane wind gusts could
affect some of the area, especially as rainbands associated with
Irma have direct impact. We urge all residents and visitors to
closely follow and monitor the San Juan National Weather Office
website for latest updates and information. Areas of rain in the
tail of hurricane Irma will continue into Friday in moderate
southeast flow at lower levels.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday
Hurricane Jose will remain a little over 1300 miles east
southeast of hurricane Irma today through Saturday. Therefore,
after a brief dry slot separating the two crosses Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands Saturday morning, moisture and
circulation around hurricane Jose will begin to affect the area.
The first moisture band will cross through on Saturday, followed
by modest moisture and precipitable water values that remain
between 1.8 and 2.2 inches all next week. With this, some strong
convection is expected across western and interior Puerto Rico
each day beginning on Saturday with heavy rains and urban and
small stream flooding. Scattered showers would also be expected
over the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Hurricane Jose will pass east of Saint Thomas by about 330 miles
on Saturday by the current forecast track and north of Puerto Rico
Sunday night by about 420 miles.

Deep moisture will continue in the tropics and the tail of
hurricane Jose will cause this moisture to bulge northward as it
moves west, reaching Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands by
Tuesday. Current models show hurricane Jose looping in the
Atlantic north of the area. High pressure over the Florida Strait
and Cuba will pull one of the moisture bands out of Jose back
over the local area on Thursday of next week. This will keep
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands relatively wet through the
period.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA expected to move across the area airports
as Hurricane Irma continues to closely move through the area. This
activity will bring SCT-BKN and OVC cigs/vsbys through the
forecast period. Therefore, MVFR and IFR conditions are expected
across the region with even lower flight category with stronger
SHRA/TSRA rain bands. Weather conditions are expected to improve
later tonight into Thursday as Irma moves to the northwest and
away from the local area based on latest projected track of the
National Hurricane Center.

MARINE...Seas are still rising over most of the Atlantic waters
due to hurricane Irma. Very dangerous conditions with wave heights
of 23 to 40 feet will be present in the vicinity of the
hurricane. Seas are expected to fall below 7 feet on Friday
afternoon for just a matter of hours until waves from hurricane
Jose arrive from the east southeast. Seas could rise to more than
12 feet by Saturday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  89  78  91 / 100  90  50  50
STT  81  87  76  87 / 100  30  60  60

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Hurricane Warning for Central Interior-Culebra-Eastern Interior-
     Mayaguez and Vicinity-North Central-Northeast-Northwest-
     Ponce and Vicinity-San Juan and Vicinity-Southeast-
     Southwest-Vieques-Western Interior.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Central Interior-
     Culebra-Eastern Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-North
     Central-Northeast-Northwest-Ponce and Vicinity-San Juan and
     Vicinity-Southeast-Southwest-Vieques-Western Interior.

VI...Hurricane Warning for St Croix-St.Thomas...St. John...and
     Adjacent Islands.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for St Croix-
     St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

AM...Hurricane Warning for Anegada Passage Southward to 17N-Atlantic
     Waters of Puerto Rico and USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N-
     Caribbean Waters of Puerto Rico from 10 NM to 17N-Coastal
     Waters OF Northwestern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters
     OF Southwestern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
     Northern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Northern
     USVI and Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern
     Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern USVI
     Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Mona Passage
     Southward to 17N.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Coastal Waters OF
     Southwestern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
     Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
     Southern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern
     USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM...OM/PG
LONG TERM....WS/FC