Areal Flood Advisory 511, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
133 PM AST Mon Oct 9 2017

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop across the main
island this afternoon, mainly affecting TJSJ so far. Showers and
storms should continue to spread this afternoon, likely
eventually reaching TJMZ and TJBQ over the next few hours. Showers
and a thunderstorm or two will also be in the vicinity of the
USVI, including TISX, throughout the afternoon. Gusty winds of
near 20 knots, lightning, and MVFR to IFR visibilities are
possible with any activity. VFR conditions are expected elsewhere.
Showers and storms should diminish later this evening. Another
round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is
expected tomorrow afternoon as well.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 AM AST Mon Oct 9 2017/

SHORT TERM...Monday through Wednesday

Cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands overnight. Some showers were noted mainly across the
northeast and east sections of Puerto Rico and the northern U.S.
Virgin Islands. Temperatures were in the upper 70s and the winds
were light and variable.

For today, A very moist and unstable atmosphere will result in
very active weather across the local islands. Heavy rainfall in
showers and thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon along and
north of the Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico. The shower and
thunderstorm activity will spread over the western interior and
northwest sections of Puerto Rico. Heavy showers with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected over the San Juan Metro Area.
Rainfall accumulations between 2 to 4 inches can be expected in
some localized areas. Soils are already saturated, therefore, any
prolonged period of heavy rainfall may result in urban and stream
flooding today. Flash flooding cannot be ruled out. This same
weather pattern is expected to occur on Tuesday as a deep upper
level trough remains across the area. Many of the rivers and small
streams are running above normal levels, therefore, there is a
high risk of river and small stream flooding as well as mudslides
in areas of steep terrain today and Tuesday. For Wednesday, a
drier air mass is forecast to move across the region as the
aforementioned upper level trough move away from the area.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday

A mid to upper level ridge is expected to build from the east by
late in the work week. Therefore, a more seasonal weather pattern
is then expected. However, lingering moisture, will combine with
strong daytime heating and orographic lifting to produce some
showers and thunderstorms mainly each afternoon across the local
islands.

&&

MARINE...
Gentle to moderate E/SE breeze will prevail on the south side of
the subtropical ridge located across the northern Atlantic as a
tropical wave pushes into the area. Showers and thunderstorms
will occur each day as deep tropical moisture remains in place.
North to northeast swells will continue to enhance local seas on
the Atlantic side of the islands through Saturday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  79  87  78 /  70  30  60  40
STT  87  80  85  81 /  50  30  50  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Central
     Interior-Culebra-Eastern Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-
     North Central-Northeast-Northwest-Ponce and Vicinity-San
     Juan and Vicinity-Southeast-Southwest-Vieques-Western
     Interior.

VI...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for St Croix-
     St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

AM...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Coastal Waters
     OF Southwestern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
     Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
     Southern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern
     USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99

Perspectivas sobre condiciones peligrosas del tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
Emitido por Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia Miami FL
623 PM AST lunes 9 de octubre de 2017

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-101030-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-
Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Aguas cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y Caribe-
623 PM AST lunes 9 de octubre de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y Esta Noche

.Tronadas...Existe el potencial de tronadas con lluvias fuertes y
vientos en rafaga breves esta tarde a traves de porciones del
interior, norte central, & noroeste.

.Inundaciones...Lluvias fuertes podrian resultar en inundaciones
de riachuelos y deslizamientos.

.Oleaje...Se espera oleaje Picado/Peligroso de hasta 4 a 6 pies a
traves de las aguas lejanas a la costa.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas para la costa norte de Puerto Rico.

.Dias Dos a Siete...martes a domingo

Se esperan aguaceros y tronadas numerosos de martes a miercoles. Es
probable que estas tormentas produzcan lluvias fuertes que podrian
resuiltar en inundaciones y deslizamientos adicionales,
particularmente sobre porciones del interior y norte de la isla
grande.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones
u otros peligros del tiempo al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en
San Juan.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-101030-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-
Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe-
623 PM AST lunes 9 de octubre de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones del tiempo peligrosas es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y Esta Noche

.Oleaje...Se espera oleaje Picado/Peligroso de hasta 4 a 6 pies a
traves de las aguas lejanas a la costa.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas para porciones del oeste de Santa Cruz hoy.

.Dias Dos a Siete...martes a domingo

Es probable que un riesgo elevado de corrientes marinas continue
hasta el domingo para Santa Cruz.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a corrientes marinas al
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
130 PM AST MON OCT 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      ADJUNTAS                18.17N 66.72W
10/09/2017                   ADJUNTAS           PR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MUDSLIDE ALONG RURAL ROAD 5522 KM 0.8 IN BARRIO LIMANI
            SECTOR SILLA CALDERON IN THE INTERIOR SECTION OF
            ADJUNTAS.

&&

RMITCHEL