Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
829 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

Hourly grids were updated for convective trends. The convection
is generally diurnally driven and should continue to wane over the
next couple of hours with the threat of strong storms in
diminishing at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 430 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

20z sfc analysis shows a well defined warm front north of the
Ohio River. This has placed eastern Kentucky in the strong warm
sector of the larger weather system. This warm dome of air will
suppress convection through evening and into the night - though a
stray shower or thunderstorm will be possible - mainly along and
north of the Mountain Parkway and perhaps in the higher terrain
near the Virginia border. The sfc and aloft ridging associated
with the dome of warm air is protecting the area from the plague
of flash flooding and near continuous storms through the midwest
and into the northern Ohio Valley. It is also responsible for the
record warmth today, and potentially tomorrow, with readings
today in the low 80s north to the upper 80s south. Dewpoints at
the same time are running in the mid 60s most places with limited
mix-down evident. Winds are running from the south at 5 to 10 mph
with some gusts from the southwest at up to 20 mph - mainly in our
west.

The models are in very good agreement aloft through the short
term portion of the forecast. They all depict a extremely deep
closed low lifting from the Southern Plains north and east into
the western Great Lakes by Monday afternoon. Over eastern Kentucky
strong ridging will retreat through the day Sunday with height
falls pushing into the area from the west with the passage of the
closed low. With such good agreement on the low the consensus
blend should provide a decent start for the grids.

Sensible weather will feature a mild night with a bit of a ridge
to valley split developing despite some mainly thin high clouds
and fairly high dewpoints. Still cannot rule out a stray storm or
shower through midnight, though, but mainly just for locations
near and north of the Mountain Parkway. For Sunday, another very
warm day will threaten record temperatures with highs in the mid
to upper 80s. Again a potential for a stray storm will exist on
the fringes of the CWA but the capping dome of warm air should
hold. Winds look to pick up during the afternoon with some gusts
to 30 or 35 mph possible - mainly in the western portions of the
Cumberland Valley and for spots closer to the Bluegrass region.
Will highlight this concern in the HWO. A cold front will progress
through the state Sunday night into Monday morning with a good
shot at thunder accompanying the associated widespread band of
showers.

Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as the starting point for all
the grids with some adjustments for ridge to valley T distinctions
tonight and again to a lesser extent on Sunday night. Also beefed
up PoPs right with the front Sunday night as it looks like most
places will see measurable QPF when the boundary does go through.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

The models were in good agreement with the general upper level flow
pattern through the period. The latest data are suggesting that we
will see two periods of active weather in the extended. The first
will be during the day on Monday into early Monday evening, as an
area of low pressure aloft moves across the upper Great Lakes region
to begin the week. A surface cold front trailing from the parent low
will bring showers and storms to eastern Kentucky on Monday. The
rain should quickly taper off through the late afternoon and early
evening hours, with the last precipitation exiting the region by 4
or 5Z Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure is then expected to
temporarily settle over the area Monday and through Tuesday night,
bringing a brief period of dry weather to the area. The primary
concern for next week will the period from Wednesday onward. A
surface is forecast to stall out across the area. As low level
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico moves northward and encounters this
boundary, repeated rounds of showers and storms are expected. The
front should remain in place for a few days, as an area of low
pressure along the western end of the boundary basically sits in
place over the southern Plains as it slowly intensifies. The rain
chances will likely last through the weekend as the front will have
a difficult time moving away from the area.

Temperatures should start out close to normal, with highs in the
lower 70s forecast for Monday and Tuesday. Conditions should be warm
for Wednesday, as southerly flow and scant cloud cover allow
temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 70s for most locations
before the rain begins in earnest across the area. After that,
however, we should see below normal daily highs in the 60s, as
widespread cloud cover and persistent rain keeps temperatures from
rising very much each day. Nightly lows should generally be in the
40s and 50s to begin the period, and in the 40s the last few nights
of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

Mainly VFR flight conditions can be expected throughout the
forecast period thanks to ridging aloft and at the sfc. Remaining
isolated showers and storms should diminish through 2Z with these
possibly affecting SYM, with the other TAF sites remaining dry.
Winds will be light through 12Z, then pick up out of the south at
10 to 15kt on average with gusts of 20 to 30kt possible as a cold
front begins to approach.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
719 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-010230-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
719 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Stray strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible this
evening, mainly near and north of the Mountain Parkway and near
the Virginia and West Virginia borders. Strong winds gusts and
hail would be the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night into Monday as a cold
front crosses the area. Storms will also be possible Wednesday
into early Wednesday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
626 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

KYZ058-069-111-292300-
Jackson-Lee-Estill-
626 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ESTILL...NORTHWESTERN JACKSON
AND NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES...

At 625 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Brazil, or 7
miles northwest of McKee, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Irvine, Ravenna, Sandhill, Willow Tree, Rice Station, Waneta, Shade,
Calloway Crossing, Wiseman Crossing Station, Jinks, Patsey,
Wisemantown, Cobhill, Brazil, Weedon, Leighton, Drip Rock, Sandgap,
Witt and Blanton Flats.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3770 8374 3743 8404 3747 8413 3778 8402
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 203DEG 33KT 3753 8405

JMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
707 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

KYZ050-051-059-060-292330-
Montgomery-Menifee-Bath-Powell-
707 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN POWELL...
MONTGOMERY...SOUTH CENTRAL BATH AND NORTHWESTERN MENIFEE COUNTIES...

At 707 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Waltersville,
or near Stanton, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Sterling, Stanton, Jeffersonville, Camargo, Clay City, Clay
Lick, Means, Levee, Preston, Walkers Crossing, Olympia Springs, Cedar
Groves, Coons Station, Stepstone, Bean, Waltersville, Gatewoods
Station, Virden, Vaughns Mill and Crooks.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3806 8362 3779 8394 3780 8396 3784 8396
      3784 8398 3785 8399 3784 8400 3785 8401
      3793 8399 3793 8397 3795 8398 3813 8392
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 207DEG 35KT 3787 8393

JMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
726 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

KYZ044-050-051-300000-
Montgomery-Bath-Fleming-
726 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MONTGOMERY...WESTERN BATH AND
CENTRAL FLEMING COUNTIES THROUGH 8 PM EDT...

At 726 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Mount Sterling,
moving north at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Sterling, Flemingsburg, Owingsville, Jeffersonville, Camargo,
Sharpsburg, Pecks Ridge, Levee, Preston, Reynoldsville, Wyoming,
Sideview, Walkers Crossing, Flat Creek, Coons Station, Odessa,
Stepstone, Bean, Bourbon Furnace and Pebble.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3842 8362 3791 8382 3791 8389 3793 8397
      3812 8408 3817 8399 3832 8384 3834 8384
      3834 8386 3836 8388 3835 8390 3837 8390
      3836 8392 3843 8396
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 188DEG 34KT 3805 8393

JP

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
839 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

KYZ110-113-300115-
Floyd-Knott-
839 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN KNOTT AND CENTRAL
FLOYD COUNTIES...

At 838 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Hollybush, or
near Hindman, moving north at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Estill, Martin, Pippa Passes, Wayland, Allen, East McDowell, Bammer,
Hippo, Handshoe, Glo, Printer, Aluba, McDowell, Betsy Layne, Ivan,
Honaker, Blue Moon, Blue River, Orkney and Hunter.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3727 8282 3732 8294 3749 8292 3749 8291
      3754 8288 3757 8290 3765 8291 3758 8261
      3751 8262 3750 8260
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 201DEG 32KT 3737 8287

JMW