Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
327 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Relied a bit more heavily on the ECMWF solution for this period.
An upper level trough along the east coast flattens out and lifts
northeastward. A surface trough extends from Harvey over
southwest Louisiana to the deepening low off New England will lift
north through the night and into Thursday. A trailing surface
trough / rain band from Harvey over northern Mississippi will
rotate northeast from Apalachee Bay into the Suwannee Valley and
southern Georgia Thursday afternoon and evening. Over Florida
looks like we will see enhanced sea breeze front convergence.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Friday and Saturday)...
Upper level ridge attempts to hold on Friday, but heights will
fall as the remnants of Harvey move into the Tennessee Valley.
PWATs will increase to 2 to 2.2 inches areawide (at or above the
90th percentile for early September). With southwest flow bringing
plenty of moisture, forecast CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg,
and 500mb temperatures around -8 to -9C (the coolest we've seen in
awhile), we should see an increase in thunderstorm coverage,
especially across southeast Georgia and west of Highway 301 in
Florida. This enhanced moisture will remain in place for Saturday
as well, though coverage will likely shift a bit further east.
Bulk shear values also increase to around 30 knots so a few strong
to marginally severe storms will be possible. Heavy rainfall will
likely be the bigger story, as around an inch of QPF is forecast
through 00z Sunday across southeast Georgia and northeast Florida.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Wednesday)...
By Sunday, Harvey's remnants and upper level shortwave trough
will move northward. Upper level ridge will build northward again,
though mid and upper level flow will be light. Mainly isolated to
widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along both
the Atlantic and Gulf coast seabreezes Sunday through Tuesday.
Model confidence starts degrading by Tuesday night and into
Wednesday with the strength of the ridge across Florida and the
progression of an upper level trough stretching across the Great
Lakes down toward the Southeast. The effects of this will greatly
influence the development or path of any potential tropical
systems in the Gulf so it's a little too early to speculate on
that just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...
The surface trough across the Jacksonville Metro with a few
showers likely through the evening hours. Ceilings with showers
will be in the 2 to 2.5 KFT range.

&&

.MARINE...
A surface trough across the waters will gradually lift north
through tonight with high pressure building across the eastern
coastal waters through the period and a surface trough setting up
across the land areas as the remnants of Harvey move through the
Ohio River valley. Winds and seas remain below small craft
exercise caution through the period.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  92  74  91 /  40  30  10  60
SSI  77  89  79  89 /  30  20  20  50
JAX  74  92  76  91 /  20  10  20  50
SGJ  75  91  76  91 /  20  10  30  50
GNV  72  93  75  91 /  10  10  20  60
OCF  74  93  75  91 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Sandrik/Elsenheimer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
256 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-310700-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
256 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...Moderate risk for rip currents...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Moderate risk for rip currents.

Chance for afternoon thunderstorms, with gusty winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Moderate risk of rip currents Thursday.

Chance for mainly afternoon thunderstorms each day, with
potential for gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

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